Predicting the scientific productivity of researchers is a basic task for academic administrators and funding agencies. This study provided a model for the publication dynamics of researchers, inspired by the distribution feature of researchers' publications in quantity. It is a piecewise Poisson model, analyzing and predicting the publication productivity of researchers by regression. The principle of the model is built on the explanation for the distribution feature as a result of an inhomogeneous Poisson process that can be approximated as a piecewise Poisson process. The model's principle was validated by the high quality dblp dataset, and its effectiveness was testified in predicting the publication productivity for majority of researchers and the evolutionary trend of their publication productivity. Tests to confirm or disconfirm the model are also proposed. The model has the advantage of providing results in an unbiased way; thus is useful for funding agencies that evaluate a vast number of applications with a quantitative index on publications.
This study provided a model for the publication dynamics of researchers, which is based on the relationship between the publication productivity of researchers and two covariates: time and historical publication quantity. The relationship allows to estimate the latent variable the publication creativity of researchers. The variable is applied to the prediction of publication productivity for researchers. The statistical significance of the relationship is validated by the high quality dblp dataset. The effectiveness of the model is testified on the dataset by the fine fittings on the quantitat…
In this work we propose a metric to assess academic productivity based on publication outputs. We are interested in knowing how well a research group in an area of knowledge is doing relatively to a pre-selected set of reference groups, where each group is composed by academics or researchers. To assess academic productivity we propose a new metric, which we call P-score. Our metric P-score assigns weights to venues using only the publication patterns of selected reference groups. This implies that P-score does not depend on citation data and thus, that it is simpler to compute particularly in…
Academic administrators and funding agencies must predict the publication productivity of research groups and individuals to assess authors' abilities. However, such prediction remains an elusive task due to the randomness of individual research and the diversity of authors' productivity patterns. We applied two kinds of approaches to this prediction task: deep neural network learning and model-based approaches. We found that a neural network cannot give a good long-term prediction for groups, while the model-based approaches cannot provide short-term predictions for individuals. We proposed a…
We analysed 580 articles (original articles only) published in Medical Journal of Malaysia between 2004 and 2008, the resources referenced by the articles and the citations and impact received. Our aim was to examine article and author productivity, the age of references used and impact of the journal. Publication data was obtained from MyAIS database and Google Scholar provided the citation data. From the 580 articles analyzed, contributors mainly come from the hospitals, universities and clinics. Contributions from foreign authors are low. The useful lives of references cited were between 3 …
The Present Study analyzed research productivity in Journal of Documentation (JDoc) for a period of 30 years between 1989 and 2018. Web of Science database a service from Clarivate Analytics has been used to download citation and source data. Bibexcel and Histcite application software have been used to present the datasets. Analysis part focuses on the parameters like citation impact at local and global level, influential authors and their total output, ranking of contributing institutions and countries. In addition to this scientographical mapping of data is presented through graphs using VOS…
Growth of science is a prevalent issue in science of science studies. In recent years, two new bibliographic databases have been introduced which can be used to study growth processes in science from centuries back: Dimensions from Digital Science and Microsoft Academic. In this study, we used publication data from these new databases and added publication data from two established databases (Web of Science from Clarivate Analytics and Scopus from Elsevier) to investigate scientific growth processes from the beginning of the modern science system until today. We estimated regression models tha…
Publication in scientific journals is the main product of scientific research. The amount of papers published, their placement in high impact journals, and their citations are used as a measure of the productivity of individual scientists, institutes or fields of science. To give a profound basis on the publication record and the quality of the publication efforts in neutron scattering, a survey has been done following the approach to use bibliographic databases. Questions to be addressed by this survey are: Is the productivity of research with neutrons changing over the years? Which is the ge…
The paper aims to analyze and monitor the research publication productivity of the faculty members of Bulacan State University. This paper compiles all the scientific publications from Bulacan State University (BulSU) and its external campuses as an index in Google Scholar. This study was intended to track and monitor the scientific productivity of the faculty members of Bulacan State University and each college and campus.
The present work seeks to analyse the altmetric performance of Brazilian publications authored by researchers who are productivity scholarship holders (PQ) of the National Council of Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). It was considered, within the scope of this research, the PQs in activity in October, 2017 (n = 14.609). The scientific production registered on Lattes was collected via GetLattesData and filtered by articles from academic journals published between 2016 and October 2017 that hold the Digital Object Identifier (n = 99064). The online attention data are analysed acco…
We examine the innovation of researchers with long-lived careers in Computer Science and Physics. Despite the epistemological differences between such disciplines, we consistently find that a researcher's most innovative publication occurs earlier than expected if innovation were distributed at random across the sequence of publications in their career, and is accompanied by a peak year in which researchers publish other work which is more innovative than average. Through a series of linear models, we show that the innovation achieved by a researcher during their peak year is higher when it is…
University of São Paulo（圣保罗大学）；Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science（数学与计算机科学研究所）
Understanding the reasons associated with successful proposals is of paramount importance to improve evaluation processes. In this context, we analyzed whether bibliometric features are able to predict the success of research grants. We extracted features aiming at characterizing the academic history of Brazilian researchers, including research topics, affiliations, number of publications and visibility. The extracted features were then used to predict grants productivity via machine learning in three major research areas, namely Medicine, Dentistry and Veterinary Medicine. We found that resea…
Analyzing a large data set of publications drawn from the most competitive journals in the natural and social sciences we show that research careers exhibit the broad distributions of individual achievement characteristic of systems in which cumulative advantage plays a key role. While most researchers are personally aware of the competition implicit in the publication process, little is known about the levels of inequality at the level of individual researchers. We analyzed both productivity and impact measures for a large set of researchers publishing in high-impact journals. For each resear…
An original cross sectional dataset referring to a medium sized Italian university is implemented in order to analyze the determinants of scientific research production at individual level. The dataset includes 942 permanent researchers of various scientific sectors for a three year time span (2008 - 2010). Three different indicators - based on the number of publications or citations - are considered as response variables. The corresponding distributions are highly skewed and display an excess of zero - valued observations. In this setting, the goodness of fit of several Poisson mixture regres…
I here propose an index that links the number of papers a researcher has published with impact factors (IFs) of the journals that publish these papers. A researcher is said to have an index z if totally z of his/her papers are published in journals with IFs of at least z/2. The z-index, not meant to evaluate, compare and rank scientists, is a number that hopefully conveniently summarizes the number of publications in journals with high IFs.
Preliminary evidence suggests that women, including female researchers, are disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of unequal distribution of childcare, elderly care and other kinds of domestic and emotional labor. Sudden lockdowns and abrupt shifts in daily routines have disproportionate consequences on their productivity, which is reflected by a sudden drop in research output in biomedical research, consequently affecting the number of female authors of scientific publications. We investigate the proportion of male and female researchers who published scientific papers…
Do highly productive researchers have significantly higher probability to produce top cited papers? Or does the increased productivity in science only result in a sea of irrelevant papers as a perverse effect of competition and the increased use of indicators for research evaluation and accountability focus? We use a Swedish author disambiguated data set consisting of 48,000 researchers and their WoS-publications during the period of 2008 2011 with citations until 2014 to investigate the relation between productivity and production of highly cited papers. As the analysis shows, quantity does m…
Researchers are often evaluated by citation-based metrics. Such metrics can inform hiring, promotion, and funding decisions. Concerns have been expressed that popular citation-based metrics incentivize researchers to maximize the production of publications. Such incentives may not be optimal for scientific progress. Here we present a citation-based measure that rewards both productivity and taste: the researcher's ability to focus on impactful contributions. The presented measure, CAP, balances the impact of publications and their quantity, thus incentivizing researchers to consider whether a …
Understanding the dynamics of research production and collaboration may reveal better strategies for scientific careers, academic institutions and funding agencies. Here we propose the use of a large and multidisciplinar database of scientific curricula in Brazil, namely, the Lattes Platform, to study patterns of scientific production and collaboration. In this database, detailed information about publications and researchers are made available by themselves so that coauthorship is unambiguous and individuals can be evaluated by scientific productivity, geographical location and field of exper…
The use of bibliometric indicators in research evaluation has a series of complex impacts on academic inquiry. These systems have gradually spread into a wide range of locations and disciplines, including the humanities. The aim of the present study is to examine their effects as perceived by philosophy researchers in Spain, a country where bibliometric indicators have long been used to evaluate research. The study combines data from a self-administered questionnaire completed by 201 researchers and from 14 in-depth interviews with researchers selected according to their affiliation, professio…
Publishing original scientific research is inherent to the work of a researcher. However, the pressure to maintain productivity and scientific impact can lead to research group publishing excessively, negatively affecting the mental health of a researcher. Ph.D. students and early career researchers are particularly susceptible to this pressure due to the inherent vulnerability of their positions. At present, there are no resources that concisely summarise the publication culture of a research group to help the researcher make an informed decision before joining. In this article, we present th…
Scientists are frequently faced with the important decision to start or terminate a creative partnership. This process can be influenced by strategic motivations, as early career researchers are pursuers, whereas senior researchers are typically attractors, of new collaborative opportunities. Focusing on the longitudinal aspects of scientific collaboration, we analyzed 473 collaboration profiles using an ego-centric perspective which accounts for researcher-specific characteristics and provides insight into a range of topics, from career achievement and sustainability to team dynamics and effi…
