Applying probability-related knowledge to accurately explore and exploit the inherent uncertainty of wind power output is one of the key issues that need to be solved urgently in the development of smart grid. This letter develops an analytical probabilistic expression for modeling sum of spatial-dependent wind farm power output through introducing unit impulse function, copulas, and Gaussian mixture model. A comparative Monte Carlo sampling study is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed model.
The increasing demand of large scale wind integration in the conventional power system brings a lot of challenges. One of them is the stability of the power system when subjected to a large disturbance, such as a fault. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk-based framework for computing a global instability index, incorporating angle, voltage, and frequency stability, for a large disturbance. Moreover, the impact of high wind penetration on this index is also observed. Case studies and associated simulations are conducted on the IEEE 39-bus test system using DIgSILENT PowerFactory software.…
Each year a growing number of wind farms are being added to power grids to generate electricity. The power curve of a wind turbine, which exhibits the relationship between generated power and wind speed, plays a major role in assessing the performance of a wind farm. Neural networks have been used for power curve estimation. However, they do not produce a confidence measure for their output, unless computationally prohibitive Bayesian methods are used. In this paper, a probabilistic neural network with Monte Carlo dropout is considered to quantify the model (epistemic) uncertainty of the power…
The growing penetration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) requires additional flexibility reserve to ensure reliable power system operations. Current industry practice typically assumes a certain fraction of the VRES power production forecast as flexibility reserve, thus ignoring other relevant information, such as weather conditions. To address this, probability- and risk-based reserve sizing models have been proposed, which use probabilistic VRES power forecasts that mostly rely on historical forecast and actual VRES power data for model training. Hence, these approaches are not su…
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Technical University of Denmark（丹麦技术大学）
We present a data-driven approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting based on conditional normalizing flow (CNF). In contrast with the existing, this approach is distribution-free (as for non-parametric and quantile-based approaches) and can directly yield continuous probability densities, hence avoiding quantile crossing. It relies on a base distribution and a set of bijective mappings. Both the shape parameters of the base distribution and the bijective mappings are approximated with neural networks. Spline-based conditional normalizing flow is considered owing to its non-affine charac…
Marginalize, Rather than Impute: Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Incomplete Data
School of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学电气工程学院）；Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London（帝国理工学院设计工程学院）；Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark（丹麦技术大学技术、管理与经济系）；Centre for Energy Research – CoRE, Aarhus University（奥胡斯大学能源研究中心）
Probabilistic load flow (PLF) calculation, as a fundamental tool to analyze transmission system behavior, has been studied for decades. Despite a variety of available methods, existing PLF approaches rarely take system control into account. However, system control, as an automatic buffer between the fluctuations in random variables and the variations in system states, has a significant impact on the final PLF result. To consider control actions' influence, this paper proposes the first analytical PLF method for the transmission grid that takes into account primary and secondary frequency contr…
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory（太平洋西北国家实验室）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
Real-time state estimation and forecasting is critical for efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for probabilistic forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data, whereas in PhI-GPR, we compute the prior statistics by solving sto…
MOE KLINNS Lab of Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学教育部KLINNS实验室）；Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学）
Aggregated stochastic characteristics of geographically distributed wind generation will provide valuable information for secured and economical system operation in electricity markets. This paper focuses on the uncertainty set prediction of the aggregated generation of geographically distributed wind farms. A Spatio-temporal model is proposed to learn the dynamic features from partial observation in near-surface wind fields of neighboring wind farms. We use Bayesian LSTM, a probabilistic prediction model, to obtain the uncertainty set of the generation in individual wind farms. Then, spatial …
