arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2407.09385eess.SYcs.SYeess.SP
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面向故障稀有的风电机组状态监测的成本优化型概率维护方法

Cost-optimized probabilistic maintenance for condition monitoring of wind turbines with rare failures

Viktor Begun, Ulrich Schlickewei

AI总结:

本研究针对故障稀有的小规模风电机组,提出带季节分量的多元线性回归状态监测模型与按利润采样故障阈值的概率维护方法,结合健康中位数据校准,经公开数据集验证可显著降低维护成本。

摘要:

我们针对故障稀有的小规模风电机组集群的状态监测,提出了一种方法、一个模型以及一种模型结果呈现形式。该方法的核心创新点是根据给运营公司带来的利润来采样故障阈值。所提模型为带有季节分量和外部回归量的多元线性回归模型,代表除选定传感器外的所有传感器组件。为克服训练数据稀缺的问题,我们使用所有可用风电机组在健康状态下的传感器中位值。针对该中位值风电机组得到的正常行为模型累积偏差,会在测试周期开始时及已知故障发生后,针对每台风电机组进行校准。我们提出的结果呈现形式为:设定可能成本的标度、控制随机维护变量,并展示取决于自由模型参数的完整成本分布。我们基于一个包含多传感器SCADA(数据采集与监视控制)数据的公开数据集开展了案例研究,结果表明考虑风电机组组件的影响比季节性因素更为关键。在最小成本相近的情况下,维护成本的分布、平均值和标准差可能存在显著差异。随机维护可能比事后维护及其他方法更具经济效益。我们的预测性维护模型在全部受试风电机组上的表现均优于随机维护及同类对比方法,可大幅节约成本。

英文摘要:

We propose a method, a model, and a form of presenting model results for condition monitoring of a small set of wind turbines with rare failures. The main new ingredient of the method is to sample failure thresholds according to the profit they give to an operating company. The model is a multiple linear regression with seasonal components and external regressors, representing all sensor components except for the selected one. To overcome the scarcity of the training data, we use the median sensor values from all available turbines in their healthy state. The cumulated deviation from the normal behavior model obtained for this median turbine is calibrated for each turbine at the beginning of the test period and after known failures. The proposed form of presenting results is to set a scale for possible costs, control for random maintenance, and show a whole distribution of costs depending on the free model parameters. We make a case study on an open dataset with SCADA data from multiple sensors and show that considering the influence of turbine components is more critical than seasonality. The distribution, the average, and the standard deviation of maintenance costs can be very different for similar minimal costs. Random maintenance can be more profitable than reactive maintenance and other approaches. Our predictive maintenance model outperforms random maintenance and competitors for the whole set of considered turbines, giving substantial savings.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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