sea-level上升高度不确定性下的海岸防护洪水损失补偿框架
A flood damage allowance framework for coastal protection with deep uncertainty in sea-level rise
摘要：
未来对南极冰盖（AIS）质量损失的预测仍然具有很大的不确定性（即，行为没有得到专家的充分理解或广泛同意）。这使得涉及沿海防洪战略高度的长期项目的决策变得复杂，这些战略旨在减少海平面上升造成的损失。如果规定的安全裕度不能适当考虑海平面上升及其不确定性，防洪的有效性将随着时间的推移而下降，可能使生命和财产面临更大的风险。我们开发了一个洪水损失津贴框架，用于计算确保维持给定水平的财务风险所需的防洪策略的高度（即，（一年中的平均洪水损失）。损害容限框架考虑决策者的偏好，如规划范围，首选的保护策略（风暴潮屏障，堤坝，海拔，海岸撤退），和AIS稳定性的主观意见。我们使用曼哈顿（纽约市）\textemdash与分布的建筑物，人口和基础设施固定的时间\textemdash作为一个例子，以显示我们的框架可以用来计算一系列的损害津贴的基础上，多个合理的AIS结果。与假设大幅减排（RCP 2.6）的假设相比，关于未来AIS稳定性的假设对高温室气体排放（代表性浓度途径[RCP] 8.5）下的损害容限影响更大。指定财务风险目标的设计工具，例如给定年份的平均洪水损失，允许计算避免的洪水损失（即，这些数据可以与建筑成本估算相结合，然后纳入现有的财务决策工具，如效益-成本或成本效益分析。
英文摘要：
Future projections of Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss remain characterized by deep uncertainty (i.e., behavior is not well understood or widely agreed upon by experts). This complicates decisions on long-lived projects involving the height of coastal flood protection strategies that seek to reduce damages from rising sea levels. If a prescribed margin of safety does not properly account for sea-level rise and its uncertainties, the effectiveness of flood protection will decrease over time, potentially putting lives and property at greater risk. We develop a flood damage allowance framework for calculating the height of a flood protection strategy needed to ensure that a given level of financial risk is maintained (i.e., the average flood damage in a given year). The damage allowance framework considers decision-maker preferences such as planning horizons, preferred protection strategies (storm surge barrier, levee, elevation, and coastal retreat), and subjective views of AIS stability. We use Manhattan (New York City)\textemdash with the distribution of buildings, populations, and infrastructure fixed in time\textemdash as an example to show how our framework could be used to calculate a range of damage allowances based on multiple plausible AIS outcomes. Assumptions regarding future AIS stability more strongly influence damage allowances under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5) compared to those that assume strong emissions reductions (RCP2.6). Design tools that specify financial risk targets, such as the average flood damage in a given year, allow for the calculation of avoided flood damages (i.e., benefits) that can be combined with estimates of construction cost and then integrated into existing financial decision-making tools, like benefit-cost or cost-effectiveness analyses.
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