气候变化下降雨和风暴潮对沿海城市综合影响的模拟：弗吉尼亚州诺福克交通基础设施影响的案例研究（USA）
Modeling the Combined Impact of Rainfall and Storm Tide on Coastal Cities under a Changing Climate: Transportation Infrastructure Impacts in Norfolk, Virginia USA as a Case Study
摘要：
世界各地的低洼沿海城市容易受到降雨和风暴潮的综合影响。然而，现有的方法缺乏模拟这些洪水机制的综合影响的能力。因此，为了提高洪水恢复力，建模技术，以提高这些洪水灾害的综合影响的理解和预测是至关重要的。为了满足这一需求，本研究提出了一种建模系统，用于评估在不断变化的气候条件下沿海城市的综合洪水风险，该系统利用海洋建模与陆地表面建模，能够解决城市内的城市排水基础设施。该模型方法被证明是在量化的未来对交通基础设施的影响在诺福克，弗吉尼亚州美国。一系列的组合风暴事件是为当前（2020年）和预测未来（2070年）的气候条件。结果表明，在当前气候条件下，洪泛对交通网络造成的中断比潮汐洪水更大。然而，到2070年，潮汐洪水将成为主要的洪水机制，由于SLR，预计每天都会发生滋扰性洪水。到2070年，滋扰性洪水预计将导致4.6%的总链路关闭时间（TLC），这是2020年50年一遇风暴潮（1.8% TLC）的两倍多。将耦合模型与广泛使用但物理上过于简单的浴缸法进行比较，以评估所提出的更复杂的建模所产生的差异。结果表明：对于2020年和2070年的10年一遇风暴潮，浴盆法分别高估了海岸线附近的洪泛面积9.5%和3.1%，而低估了内陆地区的洪泛面积9.0%和4.0%。研究结果表明，复杂的建模方法在沿海社区的气候适应性规划和政策的好处。
英文摘要：
Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms. Thus, to increase flood resilience, modeling techniques to improve understanding and prediction of the combined effect of these flood hazards are critical. To address this need, this study presents a modeling system for assessing the combined flood risk to coastal cities under changing climate conditions that leverages ocean modeling with land surface modeling capable of resolving urban drainage infrastructure within the city. The modeling approach is demonstrated in quantifying the future impact on transportation infrastructure within Norfolk, Virginia USA. A series of combined storms events are modeled for current (2020) and projected future (2070) climate conditions. Results show that pluvial flooding causes a larger interruption to the transportation network compared to tidal flooding under current climate conditions. By 2070, however, tidal flooding will be the dominant flooding mechanism with even nuisance flooding expected to happen daily due to SLR. In 2070, nuisance flooding is expected to cause a 4.6% total link close time (TLC), which is more than two times that of a 50-year storm surge (1.8% TLC) in 2020. The coupled model was compared with a widely used but physically simplistic bathtub method to assess the difference resulting from the more complex modeling presented. Results show that the bathtub method overestimated the flooded area near the shoreline by 9.5% and 3.1% for a 10-year storm surge event in 2020 and 2070, respectively, but underestimated flooded area in the inland region by 9.0% and 4.0% for the same events. The findings demonstrate the benefit of sophisticated modeling methods in climate adaptive planning and policy in coastal communities.
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