In the coming decade, a new generation of telescopes, including JWST and WFIRST, will probe the period of the formation of first galaxies and quasars, and open up the last frontier for structure formation. Recent simulations as well as observations have suggested that these galaxies are strongly clustered (with large scale bias $\gtrsim6$), and therefore have significant cosmic variance. In this work, we use \texttt{BlueTides}, the largest volume cosmological simulation of galaxy formation, to directly estimate the cosmic variance for current and upcoming surveys. Given its resolution and volume, \texttt{BlueTides} can probe the bias and cosmic variance of $z>7$ galaxies between magnitude $M_{UV}\sim-16$ to $M_{UV}\sim-22$ over survey areas $\sim0.1\ \mathrm{arcmin}^2$ to $\sim 10~\mathrm{deg}^2$. Within this regime, the cosmic variance decreases with survey area/ volume as a power law with exponents between $\sim-0.25$ to $\sim-0.45$. For the planned $10~\mathrm{deg}^2$ field of WFIRST, the cosmic variance is between $3\%$ to $10\%$. Upcoming JWST medium/ deep surveys with areas up to $A\sim100\ \mathrm{arcmin}^2$ will have cosmic variance ranging from $\sim 20-50\%$. Lensed surveys have the highest cosmic variance $\gtrsim 40\%$; the cosmic variance of $M_{UV}\lesssim-16$ galaxies is $\lesssim100\%$ up to $z\sim11$. At higher redshifts such as $z\sim12~(14)$, effective volumes of $\gtrsim(8~\mathrm{Mpc}/h)^3$ ($\gtrsim(12\ \mathrm{Mpc}/h)^3$) are required to limit the cosmic variance to within $100\%$. Finally, we find that cosmic variance is larger than Poisson variance and forms the dominant component of the overall uncertainty in all current and upcoming surveys. We present our calculations in the form of simple fitting functions and an online cosmic variance calculator (CV_AT_COSMIC_DAWN) which we publicly release.
We determine an expression for the cosmic variance of any "normal" galaxy survey based on examination of M* +/- 1 mag galaxies in the SDSS DR7 data cube. We find that cosmic variance will depend on a number of factors principally: total survey volume, survey aspect ratio, and whether the area surveyed is contiguous or comprised of independent sight-lines. As a rule of thumb cosmic variance falls below 10% once a volume of 10^7h_0.7^-3Mpc^3 is surveyed for a single contiguous region with a 1:1 aspect ratio. Cosmic variance will be lower for higher aspect ratios and/or non-contiguous surveys. Ex…
Deep pencil beam surveys (<1 deg^2) are of fundamental importance for studying the high-redshift universe. However, inferences about galaxy population properties are in practice limited by 'cosmic variance'. This is the uncertainty in observational estimates of the number density of galaxies arising from the underlying large-scale density fluctuations. This source of uncertainty can be significant, especially for surveys which cover only small areas and for massive high-redshift galaxies. Cosmic variance for a given galaxy population can be determined using predictions from cold dark matter th…
The next generation of Cosmic Microwave Background experiments will produce cosmic variance limited observations over a large fraction of sky and for a large range of multipoles. In this work we discuss different consistency tests that can be performed with the upcoming data from the Simons Observatory and the Planck data. We quantify the level of expected cosmological parameter shifts probed by these tests. We discuss the effect of difference in frequency of observation and present forecasts on a direct measurement of the Planck T-to-E leakage beam. We find that instrumental systematics in ei…
We use data from the Disc Emission via a Bias-free Reconnaissance in the Infrared/Submillimetre (DEBRIS) survey, taken at 100 um with the Photoconductor Array Camera and Spectrometer instrument on board the Herschel Space Observatory, to make a cosmic variance independent measurement of the extragalactic number counts. These data consist of 323 small-area mapping observations performed uniformly across the sky, and thus represent a sparse sampling of the astronomical sky with an effective coverage of ~2.5 deg^2. We find our cosmic variance independent analysis to be consistent with previous co…
Due to cosmic variance we cannot learn any more about large-scale inhomogeneities from the primary cosmic microwave background (CMB) alone. More information on large scales is essential for resolving large angular scale anomalies in the CMB. Here we consider cross correlating the large-scale kinetic Sunyaev Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect and probes of large-scale structure, a technique known as kSZ tomography. The statistically anisotropic component of the cross correlation encodes the CMB dipole as seen by free electrons throughout the observable Universe, providing information about long wavelength…
We present examples of non-Gaussian statistics that can induce bispectra matching local and non-local (including equilateral) templates in biased sub-volumes. We find cases where the biasing from coupling to long wavelength modes affects only the power spectrum, only the bispectrum or both. Our results suggest that ruling out multi-field scenarios is quite difficult: some measurements of the scalar correlations, including the shape of the bispectrum, can be consistent with single-clock predictions even when cosmic variance from super-horizon modes is at work. Furthermore, if observations of th…
As deeper observations discover increasingly distant galaxies, characterizing the properties of high-redshift galaxy populations will become increasingly challenging and paramount. We present a method for measuring the clustering bias of high-redshift galaxies from the field-to-field scatter in their number densities induced by cosmic variance. Multiple widely-separated fields are observed to provide a large number of statistically-independent samples of the high-redshift galaxy population. The expected Poisson uncertainty is removed from the measured dispersion in the distribution of galaxy n…
We present a concept study on weak lensing map reconstruction through the cosmic magnification effect in galaxy number density distribution. We propose a minimal variance linear estimator to minimize both the dominant systematical and statistical errors in the map reconstruction. It utilizes the distinctively different flux dependences to separate the cosmic magnification signal from the overwhelming galaxy intrinsic clustering noise. It also minimizes the shot noise error by an optimal weighting scheme on the galaxy number density in each flux bin. Our method is in principle applicable to all…
Measuring the absolute scale of the neutrino masses is one of the most exciting opportunities available with near-term cosmological datasets. Two quantities that are sensitive to neutrino mass, scale-dependent halo bias $b(k)$ and the linear growth parameter $f(k)$ inferred from redshift-space distortions, can be measured without cosmic variance. Unlike the amplitude of the matter power spectrum, which always has a finite error, the error on $b(k)$ and $f(k)$ continues to decrease as the number density of tracers increases. This paper presents forecasts for statistics of galaxy and lensing fie…
Our goal is to estimate empirically, for the first time, the cosmic variance that affects merger fraction studies based on close pairs. We compute the merger fraction from photometric redshift close pairs with 10h^-1 kpc <= rp <= 50h^-1 kpc and Dv <= 500 km/s, and measure it in the 48 sub-fields of the ALHAMBRA survey. We study the distribution of the measured merger fractions, that follow a log-normal function, and estimate the cosmic variance sigma_v as the intrinsic dispersion of the observed distribution. We develop a maximum likelihood estimator to measure a reliable sigma_v and avoid the…
In a recent paper, Gurzadyan & Penrose claim to have found directions in the sky around which there are multiple concentric sets of annuli with anomalously low variance in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). These features are presented as evidence for a particular theory of the pre-Big Bang Universe. We are able to reproduce the analysis these authors presented for data from the WMAP satellite and we confirm the existence of these apparently special directions in the newer Planck data. However, we also find that these features are present at the same level of abundance in simulated Gaussia…
Cosmic variance or galaxy bias? Disentangling finite-volume and galaxy formation effects in cosmological analysis
Institute for Fundamental Physics of the Universe (IFPU)（宇宙基本物理研究所）；SISSA - International School for Advanced Studies（国际高等研究院）；INAF - Osservatorio Astronomico di Trieste（的里雅斯特天文台）；INFN – National Institute for Nuclear Physics（意大利国家核物理研究所）；Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias（加那利天体物理研究所）；Universidad de La Laguna（拉古纳大学）
Intrinsic variations of the projected density profiles of clusters of galaxies at fixed mass are a source of uncertainty for cluster weak lensing. We present a semi-analytical model to account for this effect, based on a combination of variations in halo concentration, ellipticity and orientation, and the presence of correlated haloes. We calibrate the parameters of our model at the 10 per cent level to match the empirical cosmic variance of cluster profiles at M_200m=10^14...10^15 h^-1 M_sol, z=0.25...0.5 in a cosmological simulation. We show that weak lensing measurements of clusters signifi…
Making cosmological inferences from the observed galaxy clustering requires accurate predictions for the mean clustering statistics and their covariances. Those are affected by cosmic variance -- the statistical noise due to the finite number of harmonics. The cosmic variance can be suppressed by fixing the amplitudes of the harmonics instead of drawing them from a Gaussian distribution predicted by the inflation models. Initial realizations also can be generated in pairs with 180 degrees flipped phases to further reduce the variance. Here, we compare the consequences of using paired-and-fixed…
Upcoming weak lensing surveys will survey large cosmological volumes to measure the growth of cosmological structure with time and thereby constrain dark energy. One major systematic uncertainty in this process is the calibration of the weak lensing shape distortions, or shears. Most upcoming surveys plan to test several aspects of their shear estimation algorithms using sophisticated image simulations that include realistic galaxy populations based on high-resolution data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). However, existing datasets from the (HST) cover very small cosmological volumes, so…
The current $3.8 σ$ tension between local (arXiv:1804.10655) and global (arXiv:1605.02985) measurements of $H_0$ cannot be fully explained by the concordance $Λ$CDM model. It could be produced by unknown systematics or by physics beyond the standard model. On the other hand, it is well known that linear perturbation theory predicts a cosmic variance on the Hubble parameter $H_0$, which leads to systematic errors on its local determination. Here, we study how including in the likelihood the cosmic variance on $H_0$ affects statistical inference. In particular we consider the $γ$CDM, $w$CDM and …
In order to quantify the error budget in the measured probability distribution functions of cell densities, the two-point statistics of cosmic densities in concentric spheres is investigated. Bias functions are introduced as the ratio of their two-point correlation function to the two-point correlation of the underlying dark matter distribution. They describe how cell densities are spatially correlated. They are computed here via the so-called large deviation principle in the quasi-linear regime. Their large-separation limit is presented and successfully compared to simulations for density and…
Pulsar timing-array correlation measurements offer an exciting opportunity to test the nature of gravity in the cosmologically novel nanohertz gravitational wave regime. The stochastic gravitational wave background is assumed Gaussian and random, while there are limited pulsar pairs in the sky. This brings theoretical uncertainties to the correlation measurements, namely the pulsar variance due to pulsar samplings and the cosmic variance due to Gaussian signals. We demonstrate a straightforward calculation of the mean and the variances on the Hellings-Downs correlation relying on a power spect…
The increasing precision in the determination of the Hubble parameter has reached a per cent level at which large-scale cosmic flows induced by inhomogeneities of the matter distribution become non-negligible. Here we use large-scale cosmological N-body simulations to study statistical properties of the local Hubble parameter as measured by local observers. We show that the distribution of the local Hubble parameter depends not only on the scale of inhomogeneities, but also on how one defines the positions of observers in the cosmic web and what reference frame is used. Observers located in ra…
Cosmic variance limits the accuracy of cosmological N-body simulations, introducing bias in statistics such as the power spectrum, halo mass function, or the cosmic shear. We provide new methods to measure and reduce the effect of cosmic variance in existing and new simulations. We ran pairs of simulations using phase-shifted initial conditions with matching amplitudes. We set the initial amplitudes of the Fourier modes to ensure that the average power spectrum of the pair is equal to the cosmic mean power spectrum from linear theory. The average power spectrum of a pair of such simulations re…
The cosmic microwave background (CMB) is sensitive to the recent phase of accelerated cosmic expansion through the late-time integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect, which manifests as secondary temperature fluctuations on large angular scales. However, the large cosmic variance from primary CMB fluctuations limits the usefulness of this effect in constraining dark energy or modified gravity. In this paper, we propose a novel method to separate the ISW signal from the primary signal using gravitational lensing, based on the fact that the ISW signal is, to a good approximation, not gravitationally …
We investigate the non-linear evolution of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) in the low-redshift matter power spectrum from the DEUS-FUR $Λ$CDM model simulation. This is the first cosmological N-body simulation encompassing the full observable cosmic volume, thus allowing cosmic variance limited predictions at BAO scales. We control the effect of numerical systematic errors using a series of large volume high-resolution simulations. The combined analysis allows us to measure the matter power spectrum between $z=0$ and $1$ to 1% over the entire BAO range, $0.03<k [\textrm{h Mpc}^{-1}]<0.3$, in…
A new numerical technique to identify the cosmic web is proposed. It is based on locating multi-stream flows, i.e. the places where the velocity field is multi-valued. The method is local in Eulerian space, simple and computaionally efficient. This technique uses the velocities of particles and thus takes into account the dynamical information. This is in contrast with the majority of standard methods that use the coordinates of particles only. Two quantities are computed in every mesh cell: the mean and variance of the velocity field. In the cells where the velocity is single-valued the varia…
Galaxy surveys that map multiple species of tracers of large-scale structure can improve the constraints on some cosmological parameters far beyond the limits imposed by a simplistic interpretation of cosmic variance. This enhancement derives from comparing the relative clustering between different tracers of large-scale structure. We present a simple but fully generic expression for the Fisher information matrix of surveys with any (discrete) number of tracers, and show that the enhancement of the constraints on bias-sensitive parameters are a straightforward consequence of this multi-tracer …
We analyze simulated maps of the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) experiment and recover a nearly cosmic-variance limited estimate of the reionization optical depth $τ$. We use a power spectrum-based likelihood to simultaneously clean foregrounds and estimate cosmological parameters in multipole space. Using software specifically designed to constrain $τ$, the amplitude of scalar fluctuations $A_s$, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$, we demonstrate that the CLASS experiment will be able to estimate $τ$ within a factor of two of the full-sky cosmic variance limit allowed by cosmi…
We examine the squeezed limit of the bispectrum when a light scalar with arbitrary non-derivative self-interactions is coupled to the inflaton. We find that when the hidden sector scalar is sufficiently light ($m\lesssim0.1\,H$), the coupling between long and short wavelength modes from the series of higher order correlation functions (from arbitrary order contact diagrams) causes the statistics of the fluctuations to vary in sub-volumes. This means that observations of primordial non-Gaussianity cannot be used to uniquely reconstruct the potential of the hidden field. However, the local bispe…
Strong gravitational lensing provides a powerful means for studying faint galaxies in the distant universe. By magnifying the apparent brightness of background sources, massive clusters enable the detection of galaxies fainter than the usual sensitivity limit for blank fields. However, this gain in effective sensitivity comes at the cost of a reduced survey volume and, in this {\it Letter}, we demonstrate there is an associated increase in the cosmic variance uncertainty. As an example, we show that the cosmic variance uncertainty of the high redshift population viewed through the Hubble Space…
Cosmological measurements of the 21-cm line of neutral hydrogen are poised to dramatically enhance our understanding of the early universe. In particular, both the epochs of reionization and cosmic dawn remain largely uncharted, and the 21-cm signal is one of the few probes to reach them. The simplest 21-cm measurement is the global signal (GS), which corresponds to the averaged absorption or emission of 21-cm photons across the entire sky. While bright radio foregrounds swamp the cosmic signal over the entire frequency range observable, presenting a formidable hurdle, they can in principle be…
If cosmological perturbations in our Hubble sized volume are nongaussian, then they will be coupled to any larger perturbation modes outside our Hubble volume. This has important consequences for modeling inflation: the scalar power spectrum and spectral index measured in our Hubble volume would depend on an adjacent background of super Hubble perturbations. In other words, a detection of nongaussianity implies a possible portal to the superhorizon. By the same token, ruling out nongaussianity would rule out the possibility that the power spectrum's size and running are accidents of super cosm…
Cosmic variance introduces significant uncertainties into galaxy number density properties when surveying the high-z Universe with a small volume, such uncertainties produce the field-to-field variance of galaxy number $σ_{g}$ in observational astronomy. This uncertainty significantly affects the Luminosity Functions (LF) measurement of Lya Emitters (LAEs). For most previous Lya LF studies, $σ_{g}$ is often adopted from predictions by cosmological simulations, but barely confirmed by observations. Measuring cosmic variance requires a huge sample over a large volume, exceeding the capabilities …
Mechanisms have been proposed that might rotate the linear polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) as it propagates from the surface of last scatter. In the simplest scenario, the rotation will be uniform across the sky, but the rotation angle may also vary across the sky. We develop in detail the complete set of full-sky quadratic estimators for the rotation of the CMB polarization that can be constructed from the CMB temperature and polarization. We derive the variance with which these estimators can be measured and show that these variances reduce to the simpler flat-sky expre…
The relative cosmic variance ($σ_v$) is a fundamental source of uncertainty in pencil-beam surveys and, as a particular case of count-in-cell statistics, can be used to estimate the bias between galaxies and their underlying dark-matter distribution. Our goal is to test the significance of the clustering information encoded in the $σ_v$ measured in the ALHAMBRA survey. We measure the cosmic variance of several galaxy populations selected with $B-$band luminosity at $0.35 \leq z < 1.05$ as the intrinsic dispersion in the number density distribution derived from the 48 ALHAMBRA subfields. We com…
Current and future generations of intensity mapping surveys promise dramatic improvements in our understanding of galaxy evolution and large-scale structure. An intensity map provides a census of the cumulative emission from all galaxies in a given region and redshift, including faint objects that are undetectable individually. Furthermore, cross-correlations between line intensity maps and galaxy redshift surveys are sensitive to the line intensity and clustering bias without the limitation of cosmic variance. Using the Fisher information matrix, we derive simple expressions describing sensit…
We study the spherically averaged bispectrum of the 21-cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). This metric provides a quantitative measurement of the level of non-Gaussianity of the signal which is expected to be high. We focus on the impact of the light-cone effect on the bispectrum and its detectability with the future SKA-Low telescope. Our investigation is based on a single reionization light-cone model and an ensemble of 50 realisations of the 21-cm signal to estimate the cosmic variance errors. We calculate the bispectrum with a new, optimised direct estimation method, DviSukta w…
We demonstrate that local, scale-dependent non-Gaussianity can generate cosmic variance uncertainty in the observed spectral index of primordial curvature perturbations. In a universe much larger than our current Hubble volume, locally unobservable long wavelength modes can induce a scale-dependence in the power spectrum of typical subvolumes, so that the observed spectral index varies at a cosmologically significant level (|Δns | ~ O(0.04)). Similarly, we show that the observed bispectrum can have an induced scale dependence that varies about the global shape. If tensor modes are coupled to l…
We examine all-sky cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps on large angular scales to compare their consistency with two scenarios: the standard inflationary quantum picture, and a distribution constrained to have a universal variance of primordial curvature perturbations on great circles. The latter symmetry is not a property of standard quantum inflation, but may be a symmetry of holographic models with causal quantum coherence on null surfaces. Since the variation of great-circle variance is dominated by the largest angular scale modes, in the latter case the amplitude and direct…
There is an approximately 9% discrepancy, corresponding to 2.4sigma, between two independent constraints on the expansion rate of the universe: one indirectly arising from the cosmic microwave background and baryon acoustic oscillations, and one more directly obtained from local measurements of the relation between redshifts and distances to sources. We argue that by taking into account the local gravitational potential at the position of the observer this tension - strengthened by the recent Planck results - is partially relieved and the concordance of the standard model of cosmology increase…
Upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys will soon make the first detection of the polarized Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, the linear polarization generated by the scattering of CMB photons on the free electrons present in collapsed objects. Measurement of this polarization along with knowledge of the electron density of the objects allows a determination of the quadrupolar temperature anisotropy of the CMB as viewed from the space-time location of the objects. Maps of these remote temperature quadrupoles have several cosmological applications. Here we propose a new application: reconst…
Modern cosmology relies on the assumption of large-scale isotropy and homogeneity of the Universe. However, locally the Universe is inhomogeneous and anisotropic. So, how can local measurements (at the 100 Mpc scale) be used to determine global cosmological parameters (defined at the 10 Gpc scale)? We use Buchert's averaging formalism and determine a set of locally averaged cosmological parameters in the context of the flat Lambda cold dark matter model. We calculate their ensemble means (i.e. their global values) and variances (i.e. their cosmic variances). We apply our results to typical sur…
We compare the results from several sets of cosmological simulations of cosmic reionization, produced under Cosmic Reionization On Computers (CROC) project, with existing observational data on the high-redshift Ly-alpha forest and the abundance of Ly-alpha emitters. We find good consistency with the observational measurements and the previous simulation work. By virtue of having several independent realizations for each set of numerical parameters, we are able to explore the effect of cosmic variance on observable quantities. One unexpected conclusion we are forced into is that cosmic variance…
We present, for the first time, a Local Universe (LU) characterization using high precision constrained $N$-body simulations based on self-consistent phase-space reconstructions of the large-scale structure in the Two-Micron All-Sky Galaxy Redshift Survey. We analyse whether we live in a special cosmic web environment by estimating cosmic variance from a set of unconstrained $Λ$CDM simulations as a function of distance to random observers. By computing volume and mass filling fractions for voids, sheets, filaments and knots, we find that the LU displays a typical scatter of about $1σ$ at scale…
The recently published analytic probability density function for the mildly non-linear cosmic density field within spherical cells is used to build a simple but accurate maximum likelihood estimate for the redshift evolution of the variance of the density, which, as expected, is shown to have smaller relative error than the sample variance. This estimator provides a competitive probe for the equation of state of dark energy, reaching a few percent accuracy on wp and wa for a Euclid-like survey. The corresponding likelihood function can take into account the configuration of the cells via their…
The low order moments, such as the bulk flow and shear, of the large scale peculiar velocity field are sensitive probes of the matter density fluctuations on very large scales. In practice, however, peculiar velocity surveys are usually sparse and noisy, which can lead to the aliasing of small scale power into what is meant to be a probe of the largest scales. Previously, we developed an optimal ``minimum variance'' (MV) weighting scheme, designed to overcome this problem by minimizing the difference between the measured bulk flow (BF) and that which would be measured by an ideal survey. Here …
If the entire post-inflationary patch is large compared to our Hubble volume even a small level of non-Gaussianity can cause statistics of the primordial curvature field in our Hubble volume to be biased by mode-coupling. We explicitly compute the variation of locally measured statistics of the primordial curvature $ζ$ from non-Gaussian mode coupling within a specific inflationary scenario: the curvaton model with a quadratic curvaton potential. This "super cosmic variance" is calculated in two ways: (i) as a super observer who has access to the curvature perturbation field across the entire p…
We explore the information theory entropy of a graph as a scalar to quantify the cosmic web. We find entropy values in the range between 1.5 and 3.2 bits. We argue that this entropy can be used as a discrete analogue of scalars used to quantify the connectivity in continuous density fields. After showing that the entropy clearly distinguishes between clustered and random points, we use simulations to gauge the influence of survey geometry, cosmic variance, redshift space distortions, redshift evolution, cosmological parameters and spatial number density. Cosmic variance shows the least importa…
We examine the improvements in constraints on the linear growth factor G and its derivative f=d ln G / dln a that are available from the combination of a large-scale galaxy redshift survey with a weak gravitational lensing survey of background sources. In the linear perturbation theory limit, the bias-modulation method of McDonald & Seljak allows one to distinguish the real-space galaxy clustering from the peculiar velocity signal in each Fourier mode. The ratio of lensing signal to galaxy clustering in transverse modes yields the bias factor b of each galaxy subset (as per Pen 2004), hence ca…
We report on the detection of strongly varying intergalactic HeII absorption in HST/COS spectra of two z~3 quasars. From our homogeneous analysis of the HeII absorption in these and three archival sightlines, we find a marked increase in the mean HeII effective optical depth from tau~1 at z~2.3 to tau>5 at z~3.2, but with a large scatter of 2< tau <5 at 2.7< z <3 on scales of ~10 proper Mpc. This scatter is primarily due to fluctuations in the HeII fraction and the HeII-ionizing background, rather than density variations that are probed by the co-eval HI forest. Semianalytic models of HeII abs…
We present an analysis of the two-point peculiar velocity correlation function using data from the CosmicFlows catalogues. The Millennium and MultiDark Planck 2 N-body simulations are used to estimate cosmic variance and uncertainties due to measurement errors. We compare the velocity correlation function to expectations from linear theory to constrain cosmological parameters. Using the maximum likelihood method, we find values of $Ω_m= 0.315^{+0.205}_{-0.135}$ and $σ_8=0.92^{+0.440}_{-0.295}$, consistent with the Planck and Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe CMB derived estimates. However, …
In the submm regime, spectral line scans and line intensity mapping (LIM) are new promising probes for the cold gas content and star formation rate of galaxies across cosmic time. However, both of these two measurements suffer from field-to-field variance. We study the effect of field-to-field variance on the predicted CO and [CII] power spectra from future LIM experiments such as CONCERTO, as well as on the line luminosity functions (LFs) and the cosmic molecular gas mass density that are currently derived from spectral line scans. We combined a 117 $\rm deg^2$ dark matter lightcone from the …
The B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) provides a unique window into tensor perturbations from inflationary gravitational waves. Survey effects complicate the estimation and description of the power spectrum on the largest angular scales. The pixel-space likelihood yields parameter distributions without the power spectrum as an intermediate step, but it does not have the large suite of tests available to power spectral methods. Searches for primordial B-modes must rigorously reject and rule out contamination. Many forms of contamination vary or are uncorrelated across…
A number of independent observations suggest that the intergalactic medium was significantly neutral at $z=7$ and that reionization was, perhaps, still in progress at $z=5.7$. The narrowband survey, SILVERRUSH, has mapped over $2,000$ Lyman-$α$ emitters (LAEs) at these redshifts. Previous analyses have assumed that reionization was over by $z=5.7$, but this data may actually sample the final stages of reionization when the last neutral islands were relegated to the cosmic voids. Motivated by these developments, we reexamine LAE void and peak statistics and their ability to constrain reionizati…
