Short-term road traffic prediction (STTP) is one of the most important modules in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). However, network-level STTP still remains challenging due to the difficulties both in modeling the diverse traffic patterns and tacking high-dimensional time series with low latency. Therefore, a framework combining with a deep clustering (DeepCluster) module is developed for STTP at largescale networks in this paper. The DeepCluster module is proposed to supervise the representation learning in a visualized way from the large unlabeled dataset. More specifically, to fully exploit the traffic periodicity, the raw series is first split into a number of sub-series for triplets generation. The convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with triplet loss are utilized to extract the features of shape by transferring the series into visual images. The shape-based representations are then used for road segments clustering. Thereafter, motivated by the fact that the road segments in a group have similar patterns, a model sharing strategy is further proposed to build recurrent NNs (RNNs)-based predictions through a group-based model (GM), instead of individual-based model (IM) in which one model are built for one road exclusively. Our framework can not only significantly reduce the number of models and cost, but also increase the number of training data and the diversity of samples. In the end, we evaluate the proposed framework over the network of Liuli Bridge in Beijing. Experimental results show that the DeepCluster can effectively cluster the road segments and GM can achieve comparable performance against the IM with less number of models.
Bridging Traffic State and Trajectory for Dynamic Road Network and Trajectory Representation Learning
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University（北京航空航天大学计算机科学与工程学院）；School of Economics and Management, Beihang University（北京航空航天大学经济管理学院）；Shenzhen Institute of Beihang University（北京航空航天大学深圳研究院）
We present a novel framework for modeling traffic congestion events over road networks. Using multi-modal data by combining count data from traffic sensors with police reports that report traffic incidents, we aim to capture two types of triggering effect for congestion events. Current traffic congestion at one location may cause future congestion over the road network, and traffic incidents may cause spread traffic congestion. To model the non-homogeneous temporal dependence of the event on the past, we use a novel attention-based mechanism based on neural networks embedding for point process…
Enhancing Prediction and Analysis of UK Road Traffic Accident Severity Using AI: Integration of Machine Learning, Econometric Techniques, and Time Series Forecasting in Public Health Research
A statistical predictive model in which a high-dimensional time-series regenerates at the end of each day is used to model road traffic. Due to the regeneration, prediction is based on a daily modeling using a vector autoregressive model that combines linearly the past observations of the day. Due to the high-dimension, the learning algorithm follows from an L1-penalization of the regression coefficients. Excess risk bounds are established under the high-dimensional framework in which the number of road sections goes to infinity with the number of observed days. Considering floating car data o…
Kyungpook National University（庆北大学）；Queensland University of Technology（昆士兰科技大学）
Due to the rapid developments in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) and increasing trend in the number of vehicles on road, abundant of road traffic data is generated and available. Understanding spatio-temporal traffic patterns from this data is crucial and has been effectively helping in traffic plannings, road constructions, etc. However, understanding traffic patterns during COVID-19 pandemic is quite challenging and important as there is a huge difference in-terms of people's and vehicle's travel behavioural patterns. In this paper, a case study is conducted to understand the variati…
Improving road safety is hugely important with the number of deaths on the world's roads remaining unacceptably high; an estimated 1.35 million people die each year (WHO, 2020). Current practice for treating collision hotspots is almost always reactive: once a threshold level of collisions has been exceeded during some predetermined observation period, treatment is applied (e.g. road safety cameras). However, more recently, methodology has been developed to predict collision counts at potential hotspots in future time periods, with a view to a more proactive treatment of road safety hotspots. …
Scaling adaptive traffic-signal control involves dealing with combinatorial state and action spaces. Multi-agent reinforcement learning attempts to address this challenge by distributing control to specialized agents. However, specialization hinders generalization and transferability, and the computational graphs underlying neural-networks architectures -- dominating in the multi-agent setting -- do not offer the flexibility to handle an arbitrary number of entities which changes both between road networks, and over time as vehicles traverse the network. We introduce Inductive Graph Reinforcem…
The interest in developing smart cities has increased dramatically in recent years. In this context an intelligent transportation system depicts a major topic. The forecast of traffic flow is indispensable for an efficient intelligent transportation system. The traffic flow forecast is a difficult task, due to its stochastic and non linear nature. Besides classical statistical methods, neural networks are a promising possibility to predict future traffic flow. In our work, this prediction is performed with various recurrent neural networks. These are trained on measurements of induction loops,…
FZI Research Center for Information Technology（FZI信息技术研究中心）
Driving on roads is restricted by various traffic rules, aiming to ensure safety for all traffic participants. However, human road users usually do not adhere to these rules strictly, resulting in varying degrees of rule conformity. Such deviations from given rules are key components of today's road traffic. In autonomous driving, robotic agents can disturb traffic flow, when rule deviations are not taken into account. In this paper, we present an approach to derive the distribution of degrees of rule conformity from human driving data. We demonstrate our method with the Waymo Open Motion data…
INRIA Saclay（法国国家信息与自动化研究所萨克雷中心）；LRI（计算机研究实验室）；Université Paris Sud（巴黎第十一大学）
We consider the traffic data reconstruction problem. Suppose we have the traffic data of an entire city that are incomplete because some road data are unobserved. The problem is to reconstruct the unobserved parts of the data. In this paper, we propose a new method to reconstruct incomplete traffic data collected from various traffic sensors. Our approach is based on Markov random field modeling of road traffic. The reconstruction is achieved by using mean-field method and a machine learning method. We numerically verify the performance of our method using realistic simulated traffic data for …
Informed along the road: roadway capacity driven graph convolution network for network-wide traffic prediction
Tandon School of Engineering, New York University（纽约大学工程学院）；State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau（澳门大学物联网智能城市国家重点实验室）
TECNALIA, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)（TECNALIA，巴斯克研究与技术联盟）；University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU)（巴斯克大学）
Traffic forecasting models rely on data that needs to be sensed, processed, and stored. This requires the deployment and maintenance of traffic sensing infrastructure, often leading to unaffordable monetary costs. The lack of sensed locations can be complemented with synthetic data simulations that further lower the economical investment needed for traffic monitoring. One of the most common data generative approaches consists of producing real-like traffic patterns, according to data distributions from analogous roads. The process of detecting roads with similar traffic is the key point of the…
FZI Research Center for Information Technology（FZI信息技术研究中心）
For the classification of traffic scenes, a description model is necessary that can describe the scene in a uniform way, independent of its domain. A model to describe a traffic scene in a semantic way is described in this paper. The description model allows to describe a traffic scene independently of the road geometry and road topology. Here, the traffic participants are projected onto the road network and represented as nodes in a graph. Depending on the relative location between two traffic participants with respect to the road topology, semantically classified edges are created between th…
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant social and economic impacts throughout the world. In addition to the health consequences, the impacts on traffic behaviors have also been sudden and dramatic. We have analyzed how the road traffic safety of New York City, Los Angeles, and Boston in the U.S. have been impacted by the pandemic and corresponding local government orders and restrictions. To be specific, we have studied the accident hotspots' distributions before and after the outbreak of the pandemic and found that traffic accidents have shifted in both location and time compared t…
Faculty of Engineering（工学院）；University of Tsukuba（筑波大学）；Toyota Motor Corporation（丰田汽车公司）
Reservoir computing derived from recurrent neural networks is more applicable to real world systems than deep learning because of its low computational cost and potential for physical implementation. Specifically, physical reservoir computing, which replaces the dynamics of reservoir units with physical phenomena, has recently received considerable attention. In this study, we propose a method of exploiting the dynamics of road traffic as a reservoir, and numerically confirm its feasibility by applying several prediction tasks based on a simple mathematical model of the traffic flow.
University of Asia Pacific（亚太大学）；West Chester University（西切斯特大学）；King Saud University（沙特国王大学）
Selecting an appropriate clustering method as well as an optimal number of clusters in road accident data is at times confusing and difficult. This paper analyzes shortcomings of different existing techniques applied to cluster accident-prone areas and recommends using Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) and Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) to overcome them. Comparative performance analysis based on real-life data on the recorded cases of road accidents in North Carolina also show more effectiveness and efficiency achieved by these …
Deep neural networks have recently demonstrated the traffic prediction capability with the time series data obtained by sensors mounted on road segments. However, capturing spatio-temporal features of the traffic data often requires a significant number of parameters to train, increasing computational burden. In this work we demonstrate that embedding topological information of the road network improves the process of learning traffic features. We use a graph of a vehicular road network with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to infer the interaction between adjacent road segments as well as the…
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；TRL Software Limited（TRL软件有限公司）；University of Bath（巴斯大学）
Efficient and accurate incident prediction in spatio-temporal systems is critical to minimize service downtime and optimize performance. This work aims to utilize historic data to predict and diagnose incidents using spatio-temporal forecasting. We consider the specific use case of road traffic systems where incidents take the form of anomalous events, such as accidents or broken-down vehicles. To tackle this, we develop a neural model, called RadNet, which forecasts system parameters such as average vehicle speeds for a future timestep. As such systems largely follow daily or weekly periodici…
Intelligent transport systems have efficiently and effectively proved themselves in settling up the problem of traffic congestion around the world. The multi-agent based transportation system is one of the most important intelligent transport systems, which represents an interaction among the neighbouring vehicles, drivers, roads, infrastructure and vehicles. In this paper, two traffic management models have been created to mitigate congestion and to ensure that emergency vehicles arrive as quickly as possible. A tool-chain SUMO-JADE is employed to create a microscopic simulation symbolizing t…
Due to urbanization and the increase of individual mobility, in most metropolitan areas around the world congestion and inefficient traffic management occur. Highly necessary intelligent traffic control systems, which are able to reduce congestion, rely on measurements of traffic situations in urban road networks and freeways. Unfortunately, the instrumentation for accurate traffic measurement is expensive and not widely implemented. This thesis addresses this problem, where relatively inexpensive and easy to install loop-detectors are used by a geometric deep learning algorithm, which uses lo…
NTT Communication Science Laboratories（NTT通信科学实验室）
Appropriate traffic regulations, e.g. planned road closure, are important in congested events. Crowd simulators have been used to find appropriate regulations by simulating multiple scenarios with different regulations. However, this approach requires multiple simulation runs, which are time-consuming. In this paper, we propose a method to learn a function that outputs regulation effects given the current traffic situation as inputs. If the function is learned using the training data of many simulation runs in advance, we can obtain an appropriate regulation efficiently by bypassing simulation…
Sevendof AS（塞文多夫公司）；University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）
This paper presents a scalable deep learning approach for short-term traffic prediction based on historical traffic data in a vehicular road network. Capturing the spatio-temporal relationship of the big data often requires a significant amount of computational burden or an ad-hoc design aiming for a specific type of road network. To tackle the problem, we combine a road network graph with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to construct a structural RNN (SRNN). The SRNN employs a spatio-temporal graph to infer the interaction between adjacent road segments as well as the temporal dynamics of the…
L3S Research Center（L3S研究中心）；Leibniz University Hannover（莱布尼茨汉诺威大学）；University of Bonn（波恩大学）
The discovery of spatio-temporal dependencies within urban road networks that cause Recurrent Congestion (RC) patterns is crucial for numerous real-world applications, including urban planning and scheduling of public transportation services. While most existing studies investigate temporal patterns of RC phenomena, the influence of the road network topology on RC is often overlooked. This article proposes the ST-Discovery algorithm, a novel unsupervised spatio-temporal data mining algorithm that facilitates the effective data-driven discovery of RC dependencies induced by the road network top…
Transportation networks are highly complex and the design of efficient traffic management systems is difficult due to lack of adequate measured data and accurate predictions of the traffic states. Traffic simulation models can capture the complex dynamics of transportation networks by using limited available traffic data and can help central traffic authorities in their decision-making, if appropriate input is fed into the simulator. In this paper, we design an integrated simulation-prediction system which estimates the Origin-Destination (OD) matrix of a road network using only flow rate info…
Mediamobile（Mediamobile 公司）；Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse（图卢兹数学研究所）；INSA（法国国立应用科学学院）
In this paper, we propose deep learning architectures (FNN, CNN and LSTM) to forecast a regression model for time dependent data. These algorithm's are designed to handle Floating Car Data (FCD) historic speeds to predict road traffic data. For this we aggregate the speeds into the network inputs in an innovative way. We compare the RMSE thus obtained with the results of a simpler physical model, and show that the latter achieves better RMSE accuracy. We also propose a new indicator, which evaluates the algorithms improvement when compared to a benchmark prediction. We conclude by questioning …
Know Unreported Roadway Incidents in Real-time: Early Traffic Anomaly Detection
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University（土木与环境工程系，卡内基梅隆大学）；Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University（海因兹学院，卡内基梅隆大学）
Khwaja Fareed University of Engineering and Information Technology（哈瓦贾·法里德工程与信息技术大学）；Islamia University Bahawalpur（巴哈瓦尔布尔伊斯兰大学）
Rapid increase of traffic volume on urban roads over time has changed the traffic scenario globally. It has also increased the ratio of road accidents that can be severe and fatal in the worst case. To improve traffic safety and its management on urban roads, there is a need for prediction of severity level of accidents. Various machine learning models are being used for accident prediction. In this study, tree based ensemble models (Random Forest, AdaBoost, Extra Tree, and Gradient Boosting) and ensemble of two statistical models (Logistic Regression Stochastic Gradient Descent) as voting cla…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Nanjing University of Science and Technology（南京理工大学）；Tongji University（同济大学）
Road surface friction significantly impacts traffic safety and mobility. A precise road surface friction prediction model can help to alleviate the influence of inclement road conditions on traffic safety, Level of Service, traffic mobility, fuel efficiency, and sustained economic productivity. Most related previous studies are laboratory-based methods that are difficult for practical implementation. Moreover, in other data-driven methods, the demonstrated time-series features of road surface conditions have not been considered. This study employed a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networ…
Texas A&M University（德克萨斯A&M大学）；Texas A&M University at Galveston（德克萨斯A&M大学加尔维斯顿分校）；University of Delaware（特拉华大学）
The objective of this study is to predict road flooding risks based on topographic, hydrologic, and temporal precipitation features using machine learning models. Predictive flood monitoring of road network flooding status plays an essential role in community hazard mitigation, preparedness, and response activities. Existing studies related to the estimation of road inundations either lack observed road inundation data for model validations or focus mainly on road inundation exposure assessment based on flood maps. This study addresses this limitation by using crowdsourced and fine-grained tra…
Uncertainty-Aware Probabilistic Graph Neural Networks for Road-Level Traffic Accident Prediction
University College London (UCL)（伦敦大学学院）；Peking University (PKU)（北京大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)（麻省理工学院）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）
Traffic forecasting influences various intelligent transportation system (ITS) services and is of great significance for user experience as well as urban traffic control. It is challenging due to the fact that the road network contains complex and time-varying spatial-temporal dependencies. Recently, deep learning based methods have achieved promising results by adopting graph convolutional network (GCN) to extract the spatial correlations and recurrent neural network (RNN) to capture the temporal dependencies. However, the existing methods often construct the graph only based on road network …
