We compare the acquisition of knowledge in humans and machines. Research from the field of developmental psychology indicates, that human-employed hypothesis are initially guided by simple rules, before evolving into more complex theories. This observation is shared across many tasks and domains. We investigate whether stages of development in artificial learning systems are based on the same characteristics. We operationalize developmental stages as the size of the data-set, on which the artificial system is trained. For our analysis we look at the developmental progress of Bayesian Neural Networks on three different data-sets, including occlusion, support and quantity comparison tasks. We compare the results with prior research from developmental psychology and find agreement between the family of optimized models and pattern of development observed in infants and children on all three tasks, indicating common principles for the acquisition of knowledge.
Emulation of complex computer simulations have become an effective tool in the exploration of the behaviour of the simulated processes. Agriculture is one such area where the simulation of crop growth, nutrition, soil condition and pollution could be invaluable in any land management decisions. In this paper, we study output from the EPIC simulation model to investigate the behaviour of crop yield in response to changes in inputs such as fertilizer levels, soil, steepness, and other environmental covariates. We build a model for crop yield around a non-linear Mitscherlich Baule growth model to…
University of South Carolina（南卡罗来纳大学）；University of North Carolina Charlotte（北卡罗来纳大学夏洛特分校）
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have a drawback when working with a target distribution or likelihood function that is computationally expensive to evaluate, specially when working with big data. This paper focuses on Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm for unimodal distributions. Here, an enhanced MH algorithm is proposed that requires less number of expensive function evaluations, has shorter burn-in period, and uses a better proposal distribution. The main innovations include the use of Bayesian optimization to reach the high probability region quickly, emulating the target distribut…
Computer models are widely used across a range of scientific disciplines to describe various complex physical systems, however to perform full uncertainty quantification we often need to employ emulators. An emulator is a fast statistical construct that mimics the slow to evaluate computer model, and greatly aids the vastly more computationally intensive uncertainty quantification calculations that an important scientific analysis often requires. We examine the problem of emulating computer models that possess multiple, partial discontinuities occurring at known non-linear location. We introdu…
Optimal sex allocation theory is one of the most intricately developed areas of evolutionary ecology. Under a range of conditions, particularly under population sub-division, selection favours sex being allocated to offspring non-randomly, generating non-binomial variances of offspring group sex ratios. Detecting non-binomial sex allocation is complicated by stochastic developmental mortality, as offspring sex can often only be identified on maturity with the sex of non-maturing offspring remaining unknown. We show that current approaches for detecting non-binomiality have limited ability to d…
Tulane University（杜兰大学）；University of Nebraska Medical Center（内布拉斯加大学医学中心）；Mind Research Network（心智研究网络）；Tri-institutional Center for Translational Research in Neuroimaging and Data Science (TReNDS)（三机构神经影像与数据科学转化研究中心（TReNDS））；Georgia State University（佐治亚州立大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Emory University（埃默里大学）
Emotion perception is essential to affective and cognitive development which involves distributed brain circuits. The ability of emotion identification begins in infancy and continues to develop throughout childhood and adolescence. Understanding the development of brain's emotion circuitry may help us explain the emotional changes observed during adolescence. Our previous study delineated the trajectory of brain functional connectivity (FC) from late childhood to early adulthood during emotion identification tasks. In this work, we endeavour to deepen our understanding from association to cau…
Preterm newborns undergo various stresses that may materialize as learning problems at school-age. Sleep staging of the Electroencephalogram (EEG), followed by prediction of their brain-age from these sleep states can quantify deviations from normal brain development early (when compared to the known age). Current automation of this approach relies on explicit sleep state classification, optimizing algorithms using clinician visually labelled sleep stages, which remains a subjective gold-standard. Such models fail to perform consistently over a wide age range and impacts the subsequent brain-a…
Piecewise growth mixture models (PGMM) are a flexible and useful class of methods for analyzing segmented trends in individual growth trajectory over time, where the individuals come from a mixture of two or more latent classes. These models allow each segment of the overall developmental process within each class to have a different functional form; examples include two linear phases of growth, or a quadratic phase followed by a linear phase. The changepoint (knot) is the time of transition from one developmental phase (segment) to another. Inferring the location of the changepoint(s) is ofte…
We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio uti…
Oscillations lie at the core of many biological processes, from the cell cycle, to circadian oscillations and developmental processes. Time-keeping mechanisms are essential to enable organisms to adapt to varying conditions in environmental cycles, from day/night to seasonal. Transcriptional regulatory networks are one of the mechanisms behind these biological oscillations. However, while identifying cyclically expressed genes from time series measurements is relatively easy, determining the structure of the interaction network underpinning the oscillation is a far more challenging problem. He…
When random effects are correlated with sample design variables, the usual approach of employing individual survey weights (constructed to be inversely proportional to the unit survey inclusion probabilities) to form a pseudo-likelihood no longer produces asymptotically unbiased inference. We construct a weight-exponentiated formulation for the random effects distribution that achieves unbiased inference for generating hyperparameters of the random effects. We contrast our approach with frequentist methods that rely on numerical integration to reveal that only the Bayesian method achieves both…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室）
Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation, Bayesian model fitting becomes infeasible. To remedy this, a second statistical model that predicts the simulation output -- an "emulator" -- can be used in lieu of the full simulation during model fitting. A typical emulator of choice is the Gaussian process (GP), a flexible, non-linear model that provides both a predictive mean and variance at each input point…
We develop a Bayesian approach to predict a continuous or binary outcome from data that are collected from multiple sources with a multi-way (i.e.. multidimensional tensor) structure. As a motivating example we consider molecular data from multiple 'omics sources, each measured over multiple developmental time points, as predictors of early-life iron deficiency (ID) in a rhesus monkey model. We use a linear model with a low-rank structure on the coefficients to capture multi-way dependence and model the variance of the coefficients separately across each source to infer their relative contribu…
Generative Bayesian Computation as a Scalable Alternative to Gaussian Process Surrogates
Booth School of Business, University of Chicago（芝加哥大学商学院）；Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research, George Mason University（乔治·马歇尔大学系统工程与运营管理系）
We consider the problem of landmark matching between two unlabelled point sets, in particular where the number of points in each cloud may differ, and where points in each cloud may not have a corresponding match. We invoke a Bayesian framework to identify the transformation of coordinates that maps one cloud to the other, alongside correspondence of the points. This problem necessitates a novel methodology for Bayesian data selection; simultaneous inference of model parameters, and selection of the data which leads to the best fit of the model to the majority of the data. We apply this to a p…
LIRIS, CNRS UMR 5205（里昂图像与信息系统实验室，法国国家科学研究中心 UMR 5205）；Ecole Centrale de Lyon（里昂中央理工学院）
We present a developmental framework based on a long-term memory and reasoning mechanisms (Vision Similarity and Bayesian Optimisation). This architecture allows a robot to optimize autonomously hyper-parameters that need to be tuned from any action and/or vision module, treated as a black-box. The learning can take advantage of past experiences (stored in the episodic and procedural memories) in order to warm-start the exploration using a set of hyper-parameters previously optimized from objects similar to the new unknown one (stored in a semantic memory). As example, the system has been used…
Emulating compact binary population synthesis simulations with uncertainty quantification and model comparison using Bayesian normalizing flows
Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics（跨学科天体物理探索与研究中心）；Northwestern University（西北大学）；The NSF-Simons AI Institute for the Sky (NSF-Simons SkAI)（NSF-模拟斯诺人工智能天空研究所）
LIRIS, CNRS UMR 5205 Ecole Centrale de Lyon（里昂中央理工学院 LIRIS 实验室（法国国家科学研究中心 UMR 5205））
In robotics, methods and softwares usually require optimizations of hyperparameters in order to be efficient for specific tasks, for instance industrial bin-picking from homogeneous heaps of different objects. We present a developmental framework based on long-term memory and reasoning modules (Bayesian Optimisation, visual similarity and parameters bounds reduction) allowing a robot to use meta-learning mechanism increasing the efficiency of such continuous and constrained parameters optimizations. The new optimization, viewed as a learning for the robot, can take advantage of past experience…
Surrogate models have become ubiquitous in science and engineering for their capability of emulating expensive computer codes, necessary to model and investigate complex phenomena. Bayesian emulators based on Gaussian processes adequately quantify the uncertainty that results from the cost of the original simulator, and thus the inability to evaluate it on the whole input space. However, it is common in the literature that only a partial Bayesian analysis is carried out, whereby the underlying hyper-parameters are estimated via gradient-free optimisation or genetic algorithms, to name a few me…
Bridging disconnected networks of first and second lines of biologic therapies in rheumatoid arthritis with registry data: Bayesian evidence synthesis with target trial emulation
Epidemiological research supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and adverse children's health outcomes. Advances in exposure assessment and statistics allow for estimation of both critical windows of vulnerability and exposure effect heterogeneity. Simultaneous estimation of windows of vulnerability and effect heterogeneity can be accomplished by fitting a distributed lag model (DLM) stratified by subgroup. However, this can provide an incomplete picture of how effects vary across subgroups because it does not allow for subgroups to have the same wi…
