用注册数据桥接类风湿关节炎生物制剂一线与二线治疗的断连网络：结合目标试验模拟的贝叶斯证据合成

A Bayesian Joint model for Longitudinal DAS28 Scores and Competing Risk Informative Drop Out in a Rheumatoid Arthritis Clinical Trial

Rheumatoid arthritis clinical trials are strategically designed to collect the disease activity score of each patient over multiple clinical visits, meanwhile a patient may drop out before their intended completion due to various reasons. The dropout terminates the longitudinal data collection on the patients activity score. In the presence of informative dropout, that is, the dropout depends on latent variables from the longitudinal process, simply applying a model to analyze the longitudinal outcomes may lead to biased results because the assumption of random dropout is violated. In this pap…

A robust Bayesian bias-adjusted random effects model for consideration of uncertainty about bias terms in evidence synthesis

Meta-analysis is a statistical method used in evidence synthesis for combining, analyzing and summarizing studies that have the same target endpoint and aims to derive a pooled quantitative estimate using fixed and random effects models or network models. Differences among included studies depend on variations in target populations (i.e. heterogeneity) and variations in study quality due to study design and execution (i.e. bias). The risk of bias is usually assessed qualitatively using critical appraisal, and quantitative bias analysis can be used to evaluate the influence of bias on the quant…

COBRA-DOSE：基于Copula的贝叶斯模型平均剂量选择方法

COBRA-DOSE: Copula-based Bayesian Model Averaging for Dose Selection

COBRA-DOSE是基于Copula的贝叶斯模型平均框架，用于小样本剂量选择，通过R包实现，在类风湿关节炎I期试验中验证了其性能，可辅助临床决策。

GPMatch: A Bayesian Doubly Robust Approach to Causal Inference with Gaussian Process Covariance Function As a Matching Tool

Gaussian process (GP) covariance function is proposed as a matching tool in GPMatch within a full Bayesian framework under relatively weaker causal assumptions. The matching is accomplished by utilizing GP prior covariance function to define matching distance. We show that GPMatch provides a doubly robust estimate of the averaged treatment effect (ATE) much like the G-estimation, the ATE is correctly estimated when either conditions are satisfied: 1) the GP mean function correctly specifies potential outcome \(Y^{(0)}\); or 2) the GP covariance function correctly specifies matching structure. …

使用治疗中事件后序贯多重填补处理二分类结局以应对治疗策略策略下的伴发事件

Using off-treatment sequential multiple imputation for binary outcomes to address intercurrent events handled by a treatment policy strategy

本文针对治疗策略策略下二分类终点的伴发事件与数据缺失问题，提出并比较多种取回脱落多重填补模型，发现含伴发事件指示变量的简单模型最实用，但需至少50%的伴发事件后观测数据支持。

在模拟临床试验中评估临床效用

Evaluation of clinical utility in emulated clinical trials

本文提出了一种基于动态治疗方案的模拟临床试验框架，用于评估治疗策略的临床效用，并提出了多种估计方法。