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arXiv 1804.02544astro-ph.SR
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利用微波成像观测研究太阳长期活动和预测第25周

Long-term Solar Activity Studies using Microwave Imaging Observations and Prediction for Cycle 25

N. Gopalswamy, P. Makela, S. Yashiro, S. Akiyama

摘要:

我们使用微波成像观测从野边山射电日像仪在17 GHz的太阳活动的长期研究。特别是,我们使用极地和低纬度的亮度温度作为代理的极地磁场和活动区,分别。我们还使用日珥爆发的位置作为一个代理的灯丝位置作为时间的函数。研究表明,极区微波亮温与极区磁场强度和快太阳风速度有很强的相关性。我们还表明,在一个周期的极地微波亮度与低纬亮度的滞后约半个太阳周期的相关。我们使用这种相关性来预测太阳活动周期的强度:南半球和北半球的平滑太阳黑子数可以分别预测为89和59。这些值表明,循环25的强度与循环24的强度相差不大。我们还结合了从Nobeyama的数据与历史数据可以追溯到1860年的冲到极点,研究在太阳两极的符号反转的南北不对称。我们发现,反转不对称性具有3-5个周期的准周期性。

英文摘要:

We use microwave imaging observations from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz for long-term studies of solar activity. In particular, we use the polar and low-latitude brightness temperatures as proxies to the polar magnetic field and the active-regions, respectively. We also use the location of prominence eruptions as a proxy to the filament locations as a function of time. We show that the polar microwave brightness temperature is highly correlated with the polar magnetic field strength and the fast solar wind speed. We also show that the polar microwave brightness at one cycle is correlated with the low latitude brightness with a lag of about half a solar cycle. We use this correlation to predict the strength of the solar cycle: the smoothed sunspot numbers in the southern and northern hemispheres can be predicted as 89 and 59, respectively. These values indicate that cycle 25 will not be too different from cycle 24 in its strength. We also combined the rush to the pole data from Nobeyama prominences with historical data going back to 1860 to study the north-south asymmetry of sign reversal at solar poles. We find that the reversal asymmetry has a quasi-periodicity of 3-5 cycles.

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