植物病害暴发的早期预警信号
Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks
摘要：
摘要1.植物中爆发的传染病威胁着生态系统、农作物和粮食贸易。目前，几种真菌疾病正在影响全世界的森林，对树种、生境和生态系统造成重大风险。疾病传播的预测和控制是困难的，主要是由于所涉及的各个组成部分之间相互作用的复杂性。2.在这项工作中，我们引入了一个基于格的流行病模型耦合的随机过程，模仿，在一个非常简化的方式，主机和病原体之间的相互作用。我们通过测定病原体在易感宿主上的传播速度来研究疾病的传播。定量结果表明，两个稳定的阶段之间发生了关键的过渡：局部限制和扩展epipophytotic爆发，这取决于易感个体的密度。3.表观植物学的定量预测进行使用框架预警指标即将政权的转变，广泛应用于动力系统。这些信号成功地预测了系统进入流行病状态之前两个稳定阶段之间临界转变的结果。4.合成：我们的研究表明，早期预警指标可能是有用的预测森林疾病流行的数学和计算模型，适合于更具体的病原体-宿主-环境相互作用。
英文摘要：
Summary 1. Infectious disease outbreaks in plants threaten ecosystems, agricultural crops and food trade. Currently, several fungal diseases are affecting forests worldwide, posing a major risk to tree species, habitats and consequently ecosystem decay. Prediction and control of disease spread are difficult, mainly due to the complexity of the interaction between individual components involved. 2. In this work, we introduce a lattice-based epidemic model coupled with a stochastic process that mimics, in a very simplified way, the interaction between the hosts and pathogen. We studied the disease spread by measuring the propagation velocity of the pathogen on the susceptible hosts. Quantitative results indicate the occurrence of a critical transition between two stable phases: local confinement and an extended epiphytotic outbreak that depends on the density of the susceptible individuals. 3. Quantitative predictions of epiphytotics are performed using the framework early-warning indicators for impending regime shifts, widely applied on dynamical systems. These signals forecast successfully the outcome of the critical shift between the two stable phases before the system enters the epiphytotic regime. 4. Synthesis: Our study demonstrates that early-warning indicators could be useful for the prediction of forest disease epidemics through mathematical and computational models suited to more specific pathogen-host-environmental interactions.
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