一类时空宿主-媒介传染病模型的平衡点及灵敏度分析
Equilibrium and sensitivity analysis of a spatio-temporal host-vector epidemic model
摘要：
虫媒疾病是由昆虫携带的疾病，影响人类、动物或植物。它们有可能产生大规模爆发，如2015-2016年主要分布在美洲、太平洋和东南亚的寨卡疫情，以及2010年代欧洲由细菌{ \it Xylella fastidiosa}引起的多灶性爆发。在这篇文章中，我们提出并分析了一个空间明确的房室模型的行为，适应于固定的主机和移动载体传播疾病的病理系统。该模型的行为的基础上的偏微分方程组的补充特征在于通过其平衡态的理论研究和其过渡阶段的数值研究，使用全局灵敏度分析。结果进行了讨论的影响有关的监测和控制的疾病在一个中长期的时间范围。
英文摘要：
Insect-borne diseases are diseases carried by insects affecting humans, animals or plants. They have the potential to generate massive outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic in 2015-2016 mostly distributed in the Americas, the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and the multi-foci outbreak caused by the bacterium {\it Xylella fastidiosa} in Europe in the 2010s. In this article, we propose and analyze the behavior of a spatially-explicit compartmental model adapted to pathosystems with fixed hosts and mobile vectors disseminating the disease. The behavior of this model based on a system of partial differential equations is complementarily characterized via a theoretical study of its equilibrium states and a numerical study of its transitive phase using global sensitivity analysis. The results are discussed in terms of implications concerning the surveillance and control of the disease over a medium-to-long temporal horizon.
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