波动起源和消亡的非平衡演化解释了中生代biodiversity的厚尾波动
Non-equilibrium evolution of volatility in origination and extinction explains fat-tailed fluctuations in Phanerozoic biodiversity
摘要：
生物多样性的波动，无论大小，在化石记录中无处不在，但我们不了解产生它们的过程。在这里，我们扩展理论从非平衡统计物理来描述以前无法解释的胖尾形式的波动海洋无脊椎动物的丰富性，通过中生代。使用这个理论，被称为超统计，我们表明，简单的事实，异质起源和灭绝率之间的分支和分支内的保守率是足够的，以占这种肥尾形式。我们确定的订单和家庭，他们subsubsubsumed分类水平，在该分支经历分支间的异质性和分支内的同质性率。根据超统计学，我们可以证明，订单和家庭是局部统计平衡的子系统，而整个系统并不处于平衡状态。分离的时间尺度之间的背景起源和灭绝的分支内相比，主要的生态和进化创新的起源，导致新的分支允许分支内的动态达到平衡，而分支之间的多样化是非平衡的。这种进化枝之间的非平衡解释了整个系统的厚尾性质。多样化动态的订单和家庭的分布变化是一致的生态位保守主义和脉冲探索适应性景观的高等类群。与其他使用简单的出生-死亡过程、简单的平衡动力学或复杂性科学的非线性理论的方法相比，超级统计学在解释化石分类群丰富度的微小和极端波动方面具有优越性。它的成功开辟了新的研究方向，以更好地理解进化过程导致停滞在一个适应性景观中断的创新，导致新的形式。
英文摘要：
Fluctuations in biodiversity, large and small, are pervasive in the fossil record, yet we do not understand the processes generating them. Here we extend theory from non-equilibrium statistical physics to describe the previously unaccounted for fat-tailed form of fluctuations in marine invertebrate richness through the Phanerozoic. Using this theory, known as superstatistics, we show that the simple fact of heterogeneous origination and extinction rates between clades and conserved rates within clades is sufficient to account for this fat-tailed form. We identify orders and the families they subsume as the taxonomic level at which clades experience inter-clade heterogeneity and within clade homogeneity of rates. Following superstatistics we would posit that orders and families are subsystems in local statistical equilibrium while the entire system is not in equilibrium. The separation of timescales between background origination and extinction within clades compared to the origin of major ecological and evolutionary innovations leading to new clades allows within-clade dynamics to reach equilibrium, while between-clade diversification is non-equilibrial. This between clade non-equilibrium accounts for the fat-tailed nature of the system as a whole. The distribution of shifts in diversification dynamics across orders and families is consistent with niche conservatism and pulsed exploration of adaptive landscapes by higher taxa. Compared to other approaches that have used simple birth-death processes, simple equilibrial dynamics, or non-linear theories from complexity science, superstatistics is superior in its ability to account for both small and extreme fluctuations in the richness of fossil taxa. Its success opens up new research directions to better understand the evolutionary processes leading to stasis in an adaptive landscape interrupted by innovations that lead to novel forms.
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