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arXiv 1704.00520stat.MLstat.COstat.ME
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基于模型的近似贝叶斯计算的有效获取规则

Efficient acquisition rules for model-based approximate Bayesian computation

Marko Järvenpää, Michael U. Gutmann, Arijus Pleska, Aki Vehtari, Pekka Marttinen

摘要:

近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)是当可能性不可用但从模型进行模拟是可能的时用于贝叶斯推断的方法。然而,许多ABC算法需要大量的模拟,这可能是昂贵的。为了减少计算成本,贝叶斯优化(BO)和代理模型,如高斯过程已经提出。贝叶斯优化使人们能够智能地决定下一步在哪里评估模型,但常见的BO策略并不是为了估计后验分布而设计的。我们的论文解决了文献中的这一空白。我们建议计算ABC后验密度的不确定性,这是由于缺乏模拟来准确估计这个数量,并定义一个损失函数来测量这种不确定性。然后,我们建议选择下一个评估位置,以尽量减少预期损失。实验表明,该方法往往产生最准确的近似相比,常见的BO策略。

英文摘要:

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly. To reduce the computational cost, Bayesian optimisation (BO) and surrogate models such as Gaussian processes have been proposed. Bayesian optimisation enables one to intelligently decide where to evaluate the model next but common BO strategies are not designed for the goal of estimating the posterior distribution. Our paper addresses this gap in the literature. We propose to compute the uncertainty in the ABC posterior density, which is due to a lack of simulations to estimate this quantity accurately, and define a loss function that measures this uncertainty. We then propose to select the next evaluation location to minimise the expected loss. Experiments show that the proposed method often produces the most accurate approximations as compared to common BO strategies.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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