简单世界地球模型中全球气候、人口和经济的可持续性、崩溃和振荡
Sustainability, collapse and oscillations of global climate, population and economy in a simple World-Earth model
摘要：
人类世的特点是自然地球系统和人类社会之间的密切相互依存关系，对模型开发提出了新的挑战。在这里，我们提出了一个概念模型，描述地球的自然和社会经济子系统的长期共同进化。虽然气候是通过全球碳循环来表示的，但我们使用经济概念来模拟自然和社会之间生物质和化石燃料的社会代谢流。依赖福祉的生育率和死亡率参数化决定着人类人口动态。我们的分析侧重于评估地球系统可能的渐近状态，以定性了解其复杂的动力学，而不是定量预测。低维和简单的方程使参数空间分析，使我们能够确定几个渐近状态的先决条件，从而人类和地球的命运。这些包括自然和社会的可持续共同进化，全球崩溃和永久振荡。我们考虑的场景对应于人类历史的不同社会文化阶段。在地球系统模型中考虑“人类因素”的必要性突出表现在，过去几个世纪的碳储量演变与没有人类的星球上“自然”预期的情况相反。生物量使用的强度和生态系统服务对人类福祉的贡献被认为是仅生物量情景中渐近状态的关键决定因素。资本主义的、基于化石的情景表明，在一个很长的过渡阶段，具有根本不同的渐近状态的轨迹可能仍然几乎无法区分。考虑到目前的人口水平，我们的研究还支持这样一种说法，即除了减少全球对能源的需求外，只有广泛使用可再生能源才能为可持续的未来铺平道路。
英文摘要：
The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term coevolution of natural and socioeconomic subsystems of Earth. While the climate is represented via a global carbon cycle, we use economic concepts to model socio-metabolic flows of biomass and fossil fuels between nature and society. A wellbeing-dependent parametrization of fertility and mortality governs human population dynamics. Our analysis focuses on assessing possible asymptotic states of the Earth system for a qualitative understanding of its complex dynamics rather than quantitative predictions. Low dimension and simple equations enable a parameter-space analysis allowing us to identify preconditions of several asymptotic states and hence fates of humanity and planet. These include a sustainable co-evolution of nature and society, a global collapse and everlasting oscillations. We consider scenarios corresponding to different socio-cultural stages of human history. The necessity of accounting for the "human factor" in Earth system models is highlighted by the fact that carbon stocks during the past centuries evolved opposing to what would "naturally" be expected on a planet without humans. The intensity of biomass use and the contribution of ecosystem services to human well-being are found to be crucial determinants of the asymptotic state in a biomass-only scenario. The capitalistic, fossil-based scenario reveals that trajectories with fundamentally different asymptotic states might still be almost indistinguishable during a very long transient phase. Given current population levels, our study also supports the claim that besides reducing the global demand for energy, only the extensive use of renewable energies may pave the way into a sustainable future.
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