Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-dimensional sparse linear models. Probabilistic bounds for prediction error norm and number of selected covariates are proved. The analysis in this paper gives sharp rates and does not require beta-min or irrepresentability conditions.
Institute for Mathematics, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg（奥尔登堡卡尔·冯·奥西茨基大学数学研究所）
Neural networks are an indispensable model class for many complex learning tasks. Despite the popularity and importance of neural networks and many different established techniques from literature for stabilization and robustification of the training, the classical concepts from robust statistics have rarely been considered so far in the context of neural networks. Therefore, we adapt the notion of the regression breakdown point to regression neural networks and compute the breakdown point for different feed-forward network configurations and contamination settings. In an extensive simulation …
In this paper, we investigate a multivariate multi-response (MVMR) linear regression problem, which contains multiple linear regression models with differently distributed design matrices, and different regression and output vectors. The goal is to recover the support union of all regression vectors using $l_1/l_2$-regularized Lasso. We characterize sufficient and necessary conditions on sample complexity \emph{as a sharp threshold} to guarantee successful recovery of the support union. Namely, if the sample size is above the threshold, then $l_1/l_2$-regularized Lasso correctly recovers the s…
University of Reading（雷丁大学）；University of Southampton（南安普顿大学）；King Abdulaziz University（阿卜杜勒阿齐兹国王大学）；CSIRO Mathematics and Information Sciences（联邦科学与工业研究组织数学与信息科学研究所）；Charles Sturt University（查尔斯特大学）
A l1-norm penalized orthogonal forward regression (l1-POFR) algorithm is proposed based on the concept of leaveone- out mean square error (LOOMSE). Firstly, a new l1-norm penalized cost function is defined in the constructed orthogonal space, and each orthogonal basis is associated with an individually tunable regularization parameter. Secondly, due to orthogonal computation, the LOOMSE can be analytically computed without actually splitting the data set, and moreover a closed form of the optimal regularization parameter in terms of minimal LOOMSE is derived. Thirdly, a lower bound for regular…
MIT Sloan School of Management（麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院）；MIT Operations Research Center（麻省理工学院运筹学中心）
Boosting methods are highly popular and effective supervised learning methods which combine weak learners into a single accurate model with good statistical performance. In this paper, we analyze two well-known boosting methods, AdaBoost and Incremental Forward Stagewise Regression (FS$_\varepsilon$), by establishing their precise connections to the Mirror Descent algorithm, which is a first-order method in convex optimization. As a consequence of these connections we obtain novel computational guarantees for these boosting methods. In particular, we characterize convergence bounds of AdaBoost…
We provide a new theory for nodewise regression when the residuals from a fitted factor model are used. We apply our results to the analysis of the consistency of Sharpe ratio estimators when there are many assets in a portfolio. We allow for an increasing number of assets as well as time observations of the portfolio. Since the nodewise regression is not feasible due to the unknown nature of idiosyncratic errors, we provide a feasible-residual-based nodewise regression to estimate the precision matrix of errors which is consistent even when number of assets, p, exceeds the time span of the po…
We review sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) estimators with multivariate response in this paper. A wide range of SDR methods are characterized as inverse regression SDR estimators or forward regression SDR estimators. The inverse regression family include pooled marginal estimators, projective resampling estimators, and distance-based estimators. Ordinary least squares, partial least squares, and semiparametric SDR estimators, on the other hand, are discussed as estimators from the forward regression family.
We present novel bounds for coreset construction, feature selection, and dimensionality reduction for logistic regression. All three approaches can be thought of as sketching the logistic regression inputs. On the coreset construction front, we resolve open problems from prior work and present novel bounds for the complexity of coreset construction methods. On the feature selection and dimensionality reduction front, we initiate the study of forward error bounds for logistic regression. Our bounds are tight up to constant factors and our forward error bounds can be extended to Generalized Line…
We propose nonparametric Bayesian estimators for causal inference exploiting Regression Discontinuity/Kink (RD/RK) under sharp and fuzzy designs. Our estimators are based on Gaussian Process (GP) regression and classification. The GP methods are powerful probabilistic machine learning approaches that are advantageous in terms of derivative estimation and uncertainty quantification, facilitating RK estimation and inference of RD/RK models. These estimators are extended to hierarchical GP models with an intermediate Bayesian neural network layer and can be characterized as hybrid deep learning m…
Probabilistic survival predictions from models trained with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) can have high, and sometimes unacceptably high variance. The field of meteorology, where the paradigm of maximizing sharpness subject to calibration is popular, has addressed this problem by using scoring rules beyond MLE, such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). In this paper we present the \emph{Survival-CRPS}, a generalization of the CRPS to the survival prediction setting, with right-censored and interval-censored variants. We evaluate our ideas on the mortality prediction task us…
Echo state network (ESN) is viewed as a temporal non-orthogonal expansion with pseudo-random parameters. Such expansions naturally give rise to regressors of various relevance to a teacher output. We illustrate that often only a certain amount of the generated echo-regressors effectively explain the variance of the teacher output and also that sole local regularization is not able to provide in-depth information concerning the importance of the generated regressors. The importance is therefore determined by a joint calculation of the individual variance contributions and Bayesian relevance usi…
We present a method of variable selection for the sparse generalized additive model. The method doesn't assume any specific functional form, and can select from a large number of candidates. It takes the form of incremental forward stagewise regression. Given no functional form is assumed, we devised an approach termed roughening to adjust the residuals in the iterations. In simulations, we show the new method is competitive against popular machine learning approaches. We also demonstrate its performance using some real datasets. The method is available as a part of the nlnet package on CRAN h…
I consider unsupervised extensions of the fast stepwise linear regression algorithm \cite{efroymson1960multiple}. These extensions allow one to efficiently identify highly-representative feature variable subsets within a given set of jointly distributed variables. This in turn allows for the efficient dimensional reduction of large data sets via the removal of redundant features. Fast search is effected here through the avoidance of repeat computations across trial fits, allowing for a full representative-importance ranking of a set of feature variables to be carried out in $O(n^2 m)$ time, wh…
Material Microstructure Design Using VAE-Regression with Multimodal Prior
TCS Research, Tata Consultancy Services Ltd（塔塔咨询服务有限公司 TCS 研究院）；Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay（印度理工学院孟买分校 计算机科学与工程系）
University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
We study covariate shift in the context of nonparametric regression. We introduce a new measure of distribution mismatch between the source and target distributions that is based on the integrated ratio of probabilities of balls at a given radius. We use the scaling of this measure with respect to the radius to characterize the minimax rate of estimation over a family of Hölder continuous functions under covariate shift. In comparison to the recently proposed notion of transfer exponent, this measure leads to a sharper rate of convergence and is more fine-grained. We accompany our theory with …
Sharp Generalization for Nonparametric Regression in Interpolation Space by Over-Parameterized Neural Networks Trained with Preconditioned Gradient Descent and Early Stopping
School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence（计算与增强智能学院）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；VecML Inc.（VecML公司）
TOELT LLC（TOELT有限责任公司）；Zürich University of Applied Science（苏黎世应用科学大学）
The classical approach to non-linear regression in physics, is to take a mathematical model describing the functional dependence of the dependent variable from a set of independent variables, and then, using non-linear fitting algorithms, extract the parameters used in the modeling. Particularly challenging are real systems, characterized by several additional influencing factors related to specific components, like electronics or optical parts. In such cases, to make the model reproduce the data, empirically determined terms are built-in the models to compensate for the impossibility of model…
University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
There is an increasing realization that algorithmic inductive biases are central in preventing overfitting; empirically, we often see a benign overfitting phenomenon in overparameterized settings for natural learning algorithms, such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD), where little to no explicit regularization has been employed. This work considers this issue in arguably the most basic setting: constant-stepsize SGD (with iterate averaging or tail averaging) for linear regression in the overparameterized regime. Our main result provides a sharp excess risk bound, stated in terms of the full…
Forward stagewise regression follows a very simple strategy for constructing a sequence of sparse regression estimates: it starts with all coefficients equal to zero, and iteratively updates the coefficient (by a small amount $ε$) of the variable that achieves the maximal absolute inner product with the current residual. This procedure has an interesting connection to the lasso: under some conditions, it is known that the sequence of forward stagewise estimates exactly coincides with the lasso path, as the step size $ε$ goes to zero. Furthermore, essentially the same equivalence holds outside …
When the design matrix has orthonormal columns, "soft thresholding" the ordinary least squares (OLS) solution produces the Lasso solution [Tibshirani, 1996]. If one uses the Puffer preconditioned Lasso [Jia and Rohe, 2012], then this result generalizes from orthonormal designs to full rank designs (Theorem 1). Theorem 2 refines the Puffer preconditioner to make the Lasso select the same model as removing the elements of the OLS solution with the largest p-values. Using a generalized Puffer preconditioner, Theorem 3 relates ridge regression to the preconditioned Lasso; this result is for the hi…
This paper rigorously establishes that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) in high-dimensional logistic regression models with Gaussian covariates undergoes a sharp `phase transition'. We introduce an explicit boundary curve $h_{\text{MLE}}$, parameterized by two scalars measuring the overall magnitude of the unknown sequence of regression coefficients, with the following property: in the limit of large sample sizes $n$ and number of features $p$ proportioned in such a way that $p/n \rightarrow κ$, we show that if the problem is sufficiently high dimensional in the sense tha…
Télécom Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris（巴黎电信学院，巴黎综合理工学院）；BNP Paribas（法国巴黎银行）
Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory. We consider here the classic regression setup, where a real valued square integrable r.v. $Y$ is to be predicted upon observing a (possibly high dimensional) random vector $X$ by means of a predictive function $f(X)$ as accurately as possible in the mean-squared sense and study a nearest-neighbour-based pointwise estimate of the gradient of the optimal predi…
Relaxed Sparse Eigenvalue Conditions for Sparse Estimation via Non-convex Regularized Regression
Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P.R.China（自动化系，清华大学，北京100084，中国）；State Key Lab of Intelligent Technologies and Systems（智能技术与系统国家重点实验室）；Tsinghua National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology(TNList)（信息科学与技术国家实验室（清华大学））
This is a tutorial and survey paper on various methods for Sufficient Dimension Reduction (SDR). We cover these methods with both statistical high-dimensional regression perspective and machine learning approach for dimensionality reduction. We start with introducing inverse regression methods including Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR), Sliced Average Variance Estimation (SAVE), contour regression, directional regression, Principal Fitted Components (PFC), Likelihood Acquired Direction (LAD), and graphical regression. Then, we introduce forward regression methods including Principal Hessian Dir…
