Bayesian optimization has become a fundamental global optimization algorithm in many problems where sample efficiency is of paramount importance. Recently, there has been proposed a large number of new applications in fields such as robotics, machine learning, experimental design, simulation, etc. In this paper, we focus on several problems that appear in robotics and autonomous systems: algorithm tuning, automatic control and intelligent design. All those problems can be mapped to global optimization problems. However, they become hard optimization problems. Bayesian optimization internally uses a probabilistic surrogate model (e.g.: Gaussian process) to learn from the process and reduce the number of samples required. In order to generalize to unknown functions in a black-box fashion, the common assumption is that the underlying function can be modeled with a stationary process. Nonstationary Gaussian process regression cannot generalize easily and it typically requires prior knowledge of the function. Some works have designed techniques to generalize Bayesian optimization to nonstationary functions in an indirect way, but using techniques originally designed for regression, where the objective is to improve the quality of the surrogate model everywhere. Instead optimization should focus on improving the surrogate model near the optimum. In this paper, we present a novel kernel function specially designed for Bayesian optimization, that allows nonstationary behavior of the surrogate model in an adaptive local region. In our experiments, we found that this new kernel results in an improved local search (exploitation), without penalizing the global search (exploration). We provide results in well-known benchmarks and real applications. The new method outperforms the state of the art in Bayesian optimization both in stationary and nonstationary problems.
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；NVIDIA Corporation（英伟达公司）
The safety and resilience of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are of significant concern, as exemplified by several headline-making accidents. While AV development today involves verification, validation, and testing, end-to-end assessment of AV systems under accidental faults in realistic driving scenarios has been largely unexplored. This paper presents DriveFI, a machine learning-based fault injection engine, which can mine situations and faults that maximally impact AV safety, as demonstrated on two industry-grade AV technology stacks (from NVIDIA and Baidu). For example, DriveFI found 561 …
Autonomous Experimentation Platforms (AEPs) are advanced manufacturing platforms that, under intelligent control, can sequentially search the material design space (MDS) and identify parameters with the desired properties. At the heart of the intelligent control of these AEPs is the policy guiding the sequential experiments, which is to choose the location to carry out the next experiment. In such cases, a balance between exploitation and exploration must be achieved. A Bayesian Optimization (BO) framework with Expected Improvement based (EI-based) acquisition function can effectively search t…
Deep neural network controllers for autonomous driving have recently benefited from significant performance improvements, and have begun deployment in the real world. Prior to their widespread adoption, safety guarantees are needed on the controller behaviour that properly take account of the uncertainty within the model as well as sensor noise. Bayesian neural networks, which assume a prior over the weights, have been shown capable of producing such uncertainty measures, but properties surrounding their safety have not yet been quantified for use in autonomous driving scenarios. In this paper…
Video analytics requires operating with large amounts of data. Compressive sensing allows to reduce the number of measurements required to represent the video using the prior knowledge of sparsity of the original signal, but it imposes certain conditions on the design matrix. The Bayesian compressive sensing approach relaxes the limitations of the conventional approach using the probabilistic reasoning and allows to include different prior knowledge about the signal structure. This paper presents two Bayesian compressive sensing methods for autonomous object detection in a video sequence from …
Influencing factors on crashes involved with autonomous vehicles (AVs) have been paid increasing attention. However, there is a lack of comparative analyses between influencing factors on crashes of AVs and human-driven vehicles. To fill this research gap, the study aims to explore the divergent effects of factors on crashes under autonomous and conventional driving modes. This study obtained 154 publicly available autonomous vehicle crash data (70 for the autonomous driving mode and 84 for the conventional driving mode), and 36 explanatory variables were extracted from three categories, inclu…
Active learning - the field of machine learning (ML) dedicated to optimal experiment design, has played a part in science as far back as the 18th century when Laplace used it to guide his discovery of celestial mechanics [1]. In this work we focus a closed-loop, active learning-driven autonomous system on another major challenge, the discovery of advanced materials against the exceedingly complex synthesis-processes-structure-property landscape. We demonstrate autonomous research methodology (i.e. autonomous hypothesis definition and evaluation) that can place complex, advanced materials in re…
Benedict College（本尼迪克特学院）；University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Clemson University（克莱姆森大学）
This study presents a methodology to quantify vulnerability of cyber attacks and their impacts based on probabilistic graphical models for intelligent transportation systems under connected and autonomous vehicles framework. Cyber attack vulnerabilities from various types and their impacts are calculated for intelligent signals and cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) applications based on the selected performance measures. Numerical examples are given that show impact of vulnerabilities in terms of average intersection queue lengths, number of stops, average speed, and delays. At a sign…
Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）；Laboratoire Signal et Automatique de Lille (CRIStAL)（里尔信号与自动化实验室（CRIStAL））
In this paper we derive a PAC-Bayesian error bound for autonomous stochastic LTI state-space models. The motivation for deriving such error bounds is that they will allow deriving similar error bounds for more general dynamical systems, including recurrent neural networks. In turn, PACBayesian error bounds are known to be useful for analyzing machine learning algorithms and for deriving new ones.
Ranking over Regression for Bayesian Optimization and Molecule Selection
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence（向量人工智能研究所）；CIFAR Lebovic Fellow（CIFAR 莱博维奇 Fellow）；Canada（加拿大）；Chair, Director of Acceleration Consortium（150 职位，加速联盟主任）
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）；Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence（矢量人工智能研究所）；Atinary Technologies Inc（Atinary科技公司）；Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR)（加拿大高级研究院）；Vector Institute（矢量研究所）
Bayesian optimization has emerged as a powerful strategy to accelerate scientific discovery by means of autonomous experimentation. However, expensive measurements are required to accurately estimate materials properties, and can quickly become a hindrance to exhaustive materials discovery campaigns. Here, we introduce Gemini: a data-driven model capable of using inexpensive measurements as proxies for expensive measurements by correcting systematic biases between property evaluation methods. We recommend using Gemini for regression tasks with sparse data and in an autonomous workflow setting …
For assistive robots and virtual agents to achieve ubiquity, machines will need to anticipate the needs of their human counterparts. The field of Learning from Demonstration (LfD) has sought to enable machines to infer predictive models of human behavior for autonomous robot control. However, humans exhibit heterogeneity in decision-making, which traditional LfD approaches fail to capture. To overcome this challenge, we propose a Bayesian LfD framework to infer an integrated representation of all human task demonstrators by inferring human-specific embeddings, thereby distilling their unique c…
We review our recent work in the area of autonomous materials research, highlighting the coupling of machine learning methods and models and more problem-aware modeling. We review the general Bayesian framework for closed-loop design employed by many autonomous materials platforms. We then provide examples of our work on such platforms. We finally review our approaches to extend current statistical and ML models to better reflect problem-specific structure including the use of physics-based models and incorporation of operational considerations into the decision-making procedure.
Socrates-Mol: Self-Oriented Cognitive Reasoning through Autonomous Trial-and-Error with Empirical-Bayesian Screening for Molecules
State Key Laboratory of Heavy Oil Processing, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China（石油加工国家重点实验室，中国石油大学（北京））；Shanghai AI Laboratory,L1 Building, International Media Port, No. 129 Longwen Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai（上海人工智能实验室）；College of Energy Innovation, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China（能源创新学院，中国石油大学（北京））
Probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for robust safety of autonomous driving. Current methods for long-term trajectory prediction cannot guarantee the physical feasibility of predicted distribution. Moreover, their models cannot adapt to the driving policy of the predicted target human driver. In this work, we propose to overcome these two shortcomings by a Bayesian recurrent neural network model consisting of Bayesian-neural-network-based policy model and known physical model of the scenario. Bayesian neural network can ensemble complicated output distribution, enabling ri…
Model-based approaches bear great promise for decision making of agents interacting with the physical world. In the context of spatial environments, different types of problems such as localisation, mapping, navigation or autonomous exploration are typically adressed with specialised methods, often relying on detailed knowledge of the system at hand. We express these tasks as probabilistic inference and planning under the umbrella of deep sequential generative models. Using the frameworks of variational inference and neural networks, our method inherits favourable properties such as flexibilit…
Bayesian Multiobject Tracking With Neural-Enhanced Motion and Measurement Models
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California San Diego（电气与计算机工程系，加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Scripps Institution of Oceanography（斯克里普斯海洋研究所）
IBM Research UK（英国IBM研究院）；Sci-Tech Daresbury（达尔斯伯里科技中心）
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated state-of-the-art results in a number of autonomous system applications, however many of the underlying algorithms rely on black-box predictions. This results in poor explainability of the behaviour of these systems, raising concerns as to their use in safety-critical applications. Recent work has demonstrated that uncertainty-aware models exhibit more cautious behaviours through the incorporation of model uncertainty estimates. In this work, we build on Probabilistic Backpropagation to introduce a fully Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network architecture…
Although deep neural network (DNN) has achieved many state-of-the-art results, estimating the uncertainty presented in the DNN model and the data is a challenging task. Problems related to uncertainty such as classifying unknown classes (class which does not appear in the training data) data as known class with high confidence, is critically concerned in the safety domain area (e.g, autonomous driving, medical diagnosis). In this paper, we show that applying current Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) techniques alone does not effectively capture the uncertainty. To tackle this problem, we introduce…
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co Ltd（安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司）
Autonomous vehicles must be comprehensively evaluated before deployed in cities and highways. However, most existing evaluation approaches for autonomous vehicles are static and lack adaptability, so they are usually inefficient in generating challenging scenarios for tested vehicles. In this paper, we propose an adaptive evaluation framework to efficiently evaluate autonomous vehicles in adversarial environments generated by deep reinforcement learning. Considering the multimodal nature of dangerous scenarios, we use ensemble models to represent different local optimums for diversity. We then…
Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application, and therefore cannot guarantee optimal predictions for a given task. To make more suitable task-specific approximations, we introduce a new loss-calibrated evidence lower bound for Bayesian neural networks in the context of supervised learning, informed by Bayesian decision theory. By introducing a lower bound that depends on a utility function, we ensure t…
Bayesian network modelling is a well adapted approach to study messy and highly correlated datasets which are very common in, e.g., systems epidemiology. A popular approach to learn a Bayesian network from an observational datasets is to identify the maximum a posteriori network in a search-and-score approach. Many scores have been proposed both Bayesian or frequentist based. In an applied perspective, a suitable approach would allow multiple distributions for the data and is robust enough to run autonomously. A promising framework to compute scores are generalized linear models. Indeed, there…
Iowa State University（爱荷华州立大学）；University of Kentucky（肯塔基大学）
PARyOpt is a python based implementation of the Bayesian optimization routine designed for remote and asynchronous function evaluations. Bayesian optimization is especially attractive for computational optimization due to its low cost function footprint as well as the ability to account for uncertainties in data. A key challenge to efficiently deploy any optimization strategy on distributed computing systems is the synchronization step, where data from multiple function calls is assimilated to identify the next campaign of function calls. Bayesian optimization provides an elegant approach to o…
Harvard University（哈佛大学）；Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence（矢量人工智能研究所）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Atinary Technologies Sàrl（Atinary技术有限公司）
Designing functional molecules and advanced materials requires complex design choices: tuning continuous process parameters such as temperatures or flow rates, while simultaneously selecting catalysts or solvents. To date, the development of data-driven experiment planning strategies for autonomous experimentation has largely focused on continuous process parameters despite the urge to devise efficient strategies for the selection of categorical variables. Here, we introduce Gryffin, a general purpose optimization framework for the autonomous selection of categorical variables driven by expert…
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Duke University（杜克大学）
Analysis of heterogeneous patterns in complex spatio-temporal data finds usage across various domains in applied science and engineering, including training autonomous vehicles to navigate in complex traffic scenarios. Motivated by applications arising in the transportation domain, in this paper we develop a model for learning heterogeneous and dynamic patterns of velocity field data. We draw from basic nonparameric Bayesian modeling elements such as hierarchical Dirichlet process and infinite hidden Markov model, while the smoothness of each homogeneous velocity field element is captured with…
In this work, we introduce a novel workflow that couples robotics to machine-learning for efficient optimization of a non-aqueous battery electrolyte. A custom-built automated experiment named "Clio" is coupled to Dragonfly - a Bayesian optimization-based experiment planner. Clio autonomously optimizes electrolyte conductivity over a single-salt, ternary solvent design space. Using this workflow, we identify 6 fast-charging electrolytes in 2 work-days and 42 experiments (compared with 60 days using exhaustive search of the 1000 possible candidates, or 6 days assuming only 10% of candidates are…
From Automation to Autonomy in Smart Manufacturing: A Bayesian Optimization Framework for Modeling Multi-Objective Experimentation and Sequential Decision Making
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology（孟加拉工程技术大学）；West Virginia University（西弗吉尼亚大学）
This paper presents the design of a tune-free (human-out-of-the-loop parameter tuning) control framework, aiming at accelerating large scale autonomous driving system deployed on various vehicles and driving environments. The framework consists of three machine-learning-based procedures, which jointly automate the control parameter tuning for autonomous driving, including: a learning-based dynamic modeling procedure, to enable the control-in-the-loop simulation with highly accurate vehicle dynamics for parameter tuning; a learning-based open-loop mapping procedure, to solve the feedforward con…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence（向量人工智能研究所）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）
Optimization strategies driven by machine learning, such as Bayesian optimization, are being explored across experimental sciences as an efficient alternative to traditional design of experiment. When combined with automated laboratory hardware and high-performance computing, these strategies enable next-generation platforms for autonomous experimentation. However, the practical application of these approaches is hampered by a lack of flexible software and algorithms tailored to the unique requirements of chemical research. One such aspect is the pervasive presence of constraints in the experi…
Cyclists and pedestrians account for a significant share of fatalities and serious injuries in the road transport system. In order to protect them, advanced driver assistance systems are being developed and introduced to the market, including autonomous emergency braking and steering systems (AEBSS) that autonomously perform braking or an evasive manoeuvre by steering in case of a pending collision, in order to avoid the collision or mitigate its severity. This study proposes a new prospective framework for quantifying safety benefit of AEBSS for the protection of cyclists and pedestrians in t…
This article reviews the applications of Bayesian Networks to Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles (IAV) from the decision making point of view, which represents the final step for fully Autonomous Vehicles (currently under discussion). Until now, when it comes making high level decisions for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), humans have the last word. Based on the works cited in this article and analysis done here, the modules of a general decision making framework and its variables are inferred. Many efforts have been made in the labs showing Bayesian Networks as a promising computer model for decision …
Fac. Reg. Villa María - UTN（国立技术大学玛丽亚镇地区学院）；CIT Villa María - CONICET-UNVM（玛丽亚镇科学技术研究中心 - 国家科学技术研究委员会-国立玛丽亚镇大学）；Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño CONICET-UTN（国家科学技术研究委员会-国立技术大学发展与设计研究所）
With the increase of machine learning usage by industries and scientific communities in a variety of tasks such as text mining, image recognition and self-driving cars, automatic setting of hyper-parameter in learning algorithms is a key factor for achieving satisfactory performance regardless of user expertise in the inner workings of the techniques and methodologies. In particular, for a reinforcement learning algorithm, the efficiency of an agent learning a control policy in an uncertain environment is heavily dependent on the hyper-parameters used to balance exploration with exploitation. …
As autonomous systems increasingly rely on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to implement the navigation pipeline functions, uncertainty estimation methods have become paramount for estimating confidence in DNN predictions. Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL) offers a principled approach to model uncertainties in DNNs. However, in DNN-based systems, not all the components use uncertainty estimation methods and typically ignore the uncertainty propagation between them. This paper provides a method that considers the uncertainty and the interaction between BDL components to capture the overall system uncertai…
In this paper, we describe an integrated framework for autonomous decision making in a dynamic and interactive environment. We model the interactions between the ego agent and its operating environment as a two-player dynamic game, and integrate cognitive behavioral models, Bayesian inference, and receding-horizon optimal control to define a dynamically-evolving decision strategy for the ego agent. Simulation examples representing autonomous vehicle control in three traffic scenarios where the autonomous ego vehicle interacts with a human-driven vehicle are reported.
Bayesian Learning for the Robust Verification of Autonomous Robots
University of Warwick（华威大学）；University of York（约克大学）；Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica（荷兰国家数学与计算机科学研究所）；Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；University of Glasgow（格拉斯哥大学）
