arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
北美退伍军人节(Veterans Day),12 日无更新
arXiv 1609.06982physics.soc-phcond-mat.dis-nn
收藏

城市化的基本图

The fundamental diagram of urbanization

Giulia Carra, Marc Barthelemy

摘要:

城市化进程是我们社会最重要的现象之一,直到最近,大量地理定位的历史数据的可用性使我们能够定量地处理它的一些特征。在这里,我们讨论了建筑物的数量如何随着人口的变化而变化,我们在不同的数据集(芝加哥,$1930-2010$ ;伦敦,$1900-2015$ ;纽约市,$1790-2013$ ;巴黎,$1861-2011$)上显示,这个“基本图”以一种可能通用的方式演变,具有三个不同的阶段。在最初的城市化前阶段之后,第一阶段是建筑物数量相对于人口的快速增长。在第二种情况下,住宅被转换为另一种用途(例如办公室或商店),人口减少,而建筑物的数量大致保持不变。在随后的另一个阶段,建筑物的数量和人口再次增长,并对应于城市的重新密集化。我们提出了一个随机模型的基础上,这些简单的机制,重现前两个政权,并表明它是在很好的协议与经验观察。这些结果为构建一个极小模型的可能性提供了证据,该模型可以作为定量理解城市化和城市未来演变的工具。

英文摘要:

The process of urbanization is one of the most important phenomenon of our societies and it is only recently that the availability of massive amounts of geolocalized historical data allows us to address quantitatively some of its features. Here, we discuss how the number of buildings evolves with population and we show on different datasets (Chicago, $1930-2010$; London, $1900-2015$; New York City, $1790-2013$; Paris, $1861-2011$) that this `fundamental diagram' evolves in a possibly universal way with three distinct phases. After an initial pre-urbanization phase, the first phase is a rapid growth of the number of buildings versus population. In a second regime, where residences are converted into another use (such as offices or stores for example), the population decreases while the number of buildings stays approximatively constant. In another subsequent phase, the number of buildings and the population grow again and correspond to a re-densification of cities. We propose a stochastic model based on these simple mechanisms to reproduce the first two regimes and show that it is in excellent agreement with empirical observations. These results bring evidences for the possibility of constructing a minimal model that could serve as a tool for understanding quantitatively urbanization and the future evolution of cities.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑