板球比赛击球手的贝叶斯生存分析
Bayesian survival analysis of batsmen in Test cricket
摘要：
板球知识告诉我们，击球在球员局数的早期是比较困难的，但是随着球员对比赛条件的熟悉，击球就变得容易了。本文提出一个贝氏生存分析方法来预测国际板球运动员的测试赛击球能力。该模型应用于两个阶段，首先是个人球员，使我们能够量化球员的初始和平衡击球能力，以及两者之间的过渡率。其次是实施的模型，使用层次结构，为我们提供了更一般的推理有关选定的一组开放的击球手从新西兰。结果表明，大多数球员开始他们的局打之间只有四分之一和一半的潜在击球能力。使用层次结构，我们能够预测下一个开幕击球手的击球能力，首次亮相新西兰。此外，我们比较和识别的球员谁擅长的作用，打开击球，这有实际意义的击球顺序和球队的选择政策。
英文摘要：
Cricketing knowledge tells us batting is more difficult early in a player's innings but becomes easier as a player familiarizes themselves with the conditions. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian survival analysis method to predict the Test Match batting abilities for international cricketers. The model is applied in two stages, firstly to individual players, allowing us to quantify players' initial and equilibrium batting abilities, and the rate of transition between the two. This is followed by implementing the model using a hierarchical structure, providing us with more general inference concerning a selected group of opening batsmen from New Zealand. The results indicate most players begin their innings playing with between only a quarter and half of their potential batting ability. Using the hierarchical structure we are able to make predictions for the batting abilities of the next opening batsman to debut for New Zealand. Additionally, we compare and identify players who excel in the role of opening the batting, which has practical implications in terms of batting order and team selection policy.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
