让你的眼睛在：一个贝叶斯分析的早期解雇在板球
Getting Your Eye In: A Bayesian Analysis of Early Dismissals in Cricket
摘要：
贝叶斯生存分析方法的动机和发展分析序列的成绩由一个击球手在测试或一流的板球。特别是，我们期望存在这样一种效应，即分数分布比几何分布更有可能接近零，这是因为当击球手在折痕处是新手时击球更困难。一个梅特罗波利斯-黑斯廷斯算法被发现是有效的估计所提出的参数，使我们能够量化到底有多大的早期局的影响，以及多久击球手需要在折痕，以"让他们的眼睛“。将这个模型应用到几个现代球员身上，结果表明，击球手在第一次到达折痕时，通常只发挥了他们潜在能力的一半左右，而且他们的眼睛出奇地快。此外，有些球员比其他球员更"强壮“（早期局效应较小），这可能对选拔政策产生影响。
英文摘要：
A Bayesian Survival Analysis method is motivated and developed for analysing sequences of scores made by a batsman in test or first class cricket. In particular, we expect the presence of an effect whereby the distribution of scores has more probability near zero than a geometric distribution, due to the fact that batting is more difficult when the batsman is new at the crease. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is found to be efficient at estimating the proposed parameters, allowing us to quantify exactly how large this early-innings effect is, and how long a batsman needs to be at the crease in order to ``get their eye in''. Applying this model to several modern players shows that a batsman is typically only playing at about half of their potential ability when they first arrive at the crease, and gets their eye in surprisingly quickly. Additionally, some players are more ``robust'' (have a smaller early-innings effect) than others, which may have implications for selection policy.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
