找到你的脚：一个高斯过程模型，用于估计板球测试中击球手的能力
Finding your feet: A Gaussian process model for estimating the abilities of batsmen in Test cricket
摘要：
在板球运动中，传统上使用击球平均数来衡量球员的击球能力。然而，由于年龄和各种比赛条件下的经验等因素，击球平均数无法衡量一局中发生的短期能力变化，以及局与局之间发生的长期变化。我们推导并拟合贝叶斯参数模型，采用高斯过程来测量和预测板球运动员的击球能力如何在整个职业生涯中变化和波动。与传统的板球统计数据（如击球率）和更复杂的模型（如国际板球理事会官方评级）相比，这些结果使我们能够更好地量化和预测球员的击球能力。
英文摘要：
In the sport of cricket, player batting ability is traditionally measured using the batting average. However, the batting average fails to measure both short-term changes in ability that occur during an innings, and long-term changes that occur between innings, due to the likes of age and experience in various match conditions. We derive and fit a Bayesian parametric model that employs a Gaussian process to measure and predict how the batting abilities of cricket players vary and fluctuate over the course of entire playing careers. The results allow us to better quantify and predict player batting ability, compared with both traditional cricket statistics, such as the batting average, and more complex models, such as the official International Cricket Council ratings.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
