In large clonal populations, several clones generally compete which results in complex evolutionary and ecological dynamics: experiments show successive selective sweeps of favorable mutations as well as long-term coexistence of multiple clonal strains. The mechanisms underlying either coexistence or fixation of several competing strains have rarely been studied altogether. Conditions for coexistence have mostly been studied by population and community ecology, while rates of invasion and fixation have mostly been studied by population genetics. In order to provide a global understanding of the complexity of the dynamics observed in large clonal populations, we develop a stochastic model where three clones compete. Competitive interactions can be intransitive and we suppose that strains enter the population via mutations or rare immigrations. We first describe all possible final states of the population, including stable coexistence of two or three strains, or the fixation of a single strain. Second, we give estimate of the invasion and fixation times of a favorable mutant (or immigrant) entering the population in a single copy. We show that invasion and fixation can be slower or faster when considering complex competitive interactions. Third, we explore the parameter space assuming prior distributions of reproduction, death and competitive rates and we estimate the likelihood of the possible dynamics. We show that when mutations can affect competitive interactions, even slightly, stable coexistence is likely. We discuss our results in the context of the evolutionary dynamics of large clonal populations.
Synergistic and antagonistic interactions in multi-species populations - such as resource sharing and competition - result in remarkably diverse behaviors in populations of interacting cells, such as in soil or human microbiomes, or clonal competition in cancer. The degree of inter- and intra-specific interaction can often be quantified through the notion of an ecological "niche". Typically, weakly interacting species that occupy largely distinct niches result in stable mixed populations, while strong interactions and competition for the same niche results in rapid extinctions of some species …
We study evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations. We analyze an evolutionary process, which we call pairwise comparison, for which we adopt the ubiquitous Fermi distribution function from statistical mechanics. The inverse temperature in this process controls the intensity of selection, leading to a unified framework for evolutionary dynamics at all intensities of selection, from random drift to imitation dynamics. We derive, for the first time, a simple closed formula which determines the feasibility of cooperation in finite populations, whenever cooperation is modeled in terms of an…
Stable mixtures of cooperators and defectors are often seen in nature. This fact is at odds with predictions based on linear public goods games under weak selection. That model implies fixation either of cooperators or of defectors, and the former scenario requires a level of group relatedness larger than the cost/benefit ratio, being therefore expected only if there is either kin recognition or a very low cost/benefit ratio, or else under stringent conditions with low gene flow. This motivated us to study here social evolution in a large class of group structured populations, with arbitrary m…
Horizontal transfer (HT) of heritable information or `traits' (carried by genetic elements, endosymbionts, or culture) is widespread among living organisms. Yet current ecological and evolutionary theory addressing HT is limited. We present a modeling framework for the dynamics of two populations that compete for resources and exchange horizontally (transfer) an otherwise vertically inherited trait. Competition influences individual demographics, affecting population size, which feeds back on the dynamics of transfer. We capture this feedback with a stochastic individual-based model, from whic…
The Voter model is a well-studied stochastic process that models the invasion of a novel trait $A$ (e.g., a new opinion, social meme, genetic mutation, magnetic spin) in a network of individuals (agents, people, genes, particles) carrying an existing resident trait $B$. Individuals change traits by occasionally sampling the trait of a neighbor, while an invasion bias $δ\geq 0$ expresses the stochastic preference to adopt the novel trait $A$ over the resident trait $B$. The strength of an invasion is measured by the probability that eventually the whole population adopts trait $A$, i.e., the fi…
Evolutionary dynamics on graphs can lead to many interesting and counterintuitive findings. We study the Moran process, a discrete time birth-death process, that describes the invasion of a mutant type into a population of wild-type individuals. Remarkably, the fixation probability of a single mutant is the same on all regular networks. But non-regular networks can increase or decrease the fixation probability. While the time until fixation formally depends on the same transition probabilities as the fixation probabilities, there is no obvious relation between them. For example, an amplifier o…
The voter process is a classic stochastic process that models the invasion of a mutant trait $A$ (e.g., a new opinion, belief, legend, genetic mutation, magnetic spin) in a population of agents (e.g., people, genes, particles) who share a resident trait $B$, spread over the nodes of a graph. An agent may adopt the trait of one of its neighbors at any time, while the invasion bias $r\in(0,\infty)$ quantifies the stochastic preference towards ($r>1$) or against ($r<1$) adopting $A$ over $B$. Success is measured in terms of the fixation probability, i.e., the probability that eventually all agent…
We study the fixation probability of a mutant type when introduced into a resident population. As opposed to the usual assumption of constant pop- ulation size, we allow for stochastically varying population sizes. This is implemented by a stochastic competitive Lotka-Volterra model. The compe- tition coefficients are interpreted in terms of inverse payoffs emerging from an evolutionary game. Since our study focuses on the impact of the competition values, we assume the same birth and death rates for both types. In this gen- eral framework, we derive an approximate formula for the fixation pro…
The biological theory of adaptive dynamics proposes a description of the long-term evolution of a structured asexual population. It is based on the assumptions of large population, rare mutations and small mutation steps, that lead to a deterministic ODE describing the evolution of the dominant type, called the ``canonical equation of adaptive dynamics.'' Here, in order to include the effect of stochasticity (genetic drift), we consider self-regulated randomly fluctuating populations subject to mutation, so that the number of coexisting types may fluctuate. We apply a limit of rare mutations t…
We present a model for the dynamics of a population of bacteria with a continuum of traits, who compete for resources and exchange horizontally (transfer) an otherwise vertically inherited trait with possible mutations. Competition influences individual demographics, affecting population size, which feeds back on the dynamics of transfer. We consider a stochastic individual-based pure jump process taking values in the space of point measures, and whose jump events describe the individual reproduction, transfer and death mechanisms. In a large population scale, the stochastic process is proved …
Taking into account an evolutionary model of mutations in term of Levy Fights that was previously constructed, we designed an algorithm to reproduce the evolutionary dynamics of the Long-Term Evolution Experiment (LTEE) with E. Coli bacteria. The algorithm enables us to simulate mutations under natural selection conditions. The results of simulations on competition of clones, mean fitness, etc., are compared with experimental data. We attained to reproduce the behavior of the mean fitness of the bacteria cultures, get our own interpretations and more tuned descriptions of some phenomena taking…
Population structure can have a significant effect on evolution. For some systems with sufficient symmetry, analytic results can be derived within the mathematical framework of evolutionary graph theory which relate to the outcome of the evolutionary process. However, for more complicated heterogeneous structures, computationally intensive methods are required such as individual-based stochastic simulations. By adapting methods from statistical physics, including moment closure techniques, we first show how to derive existing homogenised pair approximation models and the exact neutral drift mo…
The evolution of two species with different fitness is investigated on degree-heterogeneous graphs. The population evolves either by one individual dying and being replaced by the offspring of a random neighbor (voter model (VM) dynamics) or by an individual giving birth to an offspring that takes over a random neighbor node (invasion process (IP) dynamics). The fixation probability for one species to take over a population of N individuals depends crucially on the dynamics and on the local environment. Starting with a single fitter mutant at a node of degree k, the fixation probability is pro…
The evolutionary advantage of replacers in the Moran process
Computer Science Institute, Charles University（查尔斯大学计算机科学学院）；Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University（哈佛大学生物演化系）；Department of Mathematics, Harvard University（哈佛大学数学系）
Populations are made up of an integer number of individuals and are subject to stochastic birth-death processes whose rates may vary in time. Useful quantities, like the chance of ultimate fixation, satisfy an appropriate difference (master) equation, but closed-form solutions of these equations are rare. Analytical insights in fields like population genetics, ecology and evolution rely, almost exclusively, on an uncontrolled application of the diffusion approximation (DA) which assumes the smoothness of the relevant quantities over the set of integers. Here we combine asymptotic matching tech…
This paper is concerned with a reaction--diffusion system modeling the fixation and the invasion in a population of a gene drive (an allele biasing inheritance, increasing its own transmission to offspring). In our model, the gene drive has a negative effect on the fitness of individuals carrying it, and is therefore susceptible of decreasing the total carrying capacity of the population locally in space. This tends to generate an opposing demographic advection that the gene drive has to overcome in order to invade. While previous reaction--diffusion models neglected this aspect, here we focus…
Stochasticity can play an important role in the dynamics of biologically relevant populations. These span a broad range of scales: from intra-cellular populations of molecules to population of cells and then to groups of plants, animals and people. Large deviations in stochastic population dynamics - such as those determining population extinction, fixation or switching between different states - are presently in a focus of attention of statistical physicists. We review recent progress in applying different variants of dissipative WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) to thi…
In the framework of the paradigmatic prisoner's dilemma, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in the presence of "cooperation facilitators". In our model, cooperators and defectors interact as in the classical prisoner's dilemma game, where selection favors defection. However, here the presence of a small number of cooperation facilitators enhances the fitness (reproductive potential) of cooperators, while it does not alter that of defectors. In a finite population of size N, the dynamics of the prisoner's dilemma with facilitators is characterized by the probability tha…
The accumulation of adaptive mutations is essential for survival in novel environments. However, in clonal populations with a high mutational supply, the power of natural selection is expected to be limited. This is due to clonal interference - the competition of clones carrying different beneficial mutations - which leads to the loss of many small effect mutations and fixation of large effect ones. If interference is abundant, then mechanisms for horizontal transfer of genes, which allow the immediate combination of beneficial alleles in a single background, are expected to evolve. However, t…
We study the combined influence of selection and random fluctuations on the evolutionary dynamics of two-strategy ("cooperation" and "defection") games in populations comprising cooperation facilitators. The latter are individuals that support cooperation by enhancing the reproductive potential of cooperators relative to the fitness of defectors. By computing the fixation probability of a single cooperator in finite and well-mixed populations that include a fixed number of facilitators, and by using mean field analysis, we determine when selection promotes cooperation in the important classes …
Evolutionary game theory has proven to be an elegant framework providing many fruitful insights in population dynamics and human behaviour. Here, we focus on the aspect of behavioural plasticity and its effect on the evolution of populations. We consider games with only two strategies in both well-mixed infinite and finite populations settings. We assume that individuals might exhibit behavioural plasticity referred to as incompetence of players. We study the effect of such heterogeneity on the outcome of local interactions and, ultimately, on global competition. For instance, a strategy that …
Character evolution that affects ecological community interactions often occurs contemporaneously with temporal changes in population size, potentially altering the very nature of those dynamics. Such eco-evolutionary processes may be most readily explored in systems with short generations and simple genetics. Asexual and cyclically parthenogenetic organisms such as microalgae, cladocerans, and rotifers, which frequently dominate freshwater plankton communities, meet these requirements. Multiple clonal lines can coexist within each species over extended periods, until either fixation occurs or…
The importance of mutator clones in the adaptive evolution of asexual populations is not fully understood. Here we address this problem by using an ab initio microscopic model of living cells, whose fitness is derived directly from their genomes using a biophysically realistic model of protein folding and interactions in the cytoplasm. The model organisms contain replication controlling genes (DCGs) and genes modeling the mismatch repair (MMR) complexes. We find that adaptation occurs through the transient fixation of a mutator phenotype, regardless of particular perturbations in the fitness l…
The adaptive evolution of large asexual populations is generally characterized by competition between clones carrying different beneficial mutations. This interference phenomenon slows down the adaptation speed and makes the theoretical description of the dynamics more complex with respect to the successional occurrence and fixation of beneficial mutations typical of small populations. A simplified modeling framework considering multiple beneficial mutations with equal and constant fitness advantage captures some of the essential features of the actual complex dynamics, and some key prediction…
