We derive several tests for the presence of a periodic component in a time series of functions. We consider both the traditional setting in which the periodic functional signal is contaminated by functional white noise, and a more general setting of a contaminating process which is weakly dependent. Several forms of the periodic component are considered. Our tests are motivated by the likelihood principle and fall into two broad categories, which we term multivariate and fully functional. Overall, for the functional series that motivate this research, the fully functional tests exhibit a superior balance of size and power. Asymptotic null distributions of all tests are derived and their consistency is established. Their finite sample performance is examined and compared by numerical studies and application to pollution data.
Periodicity detection is an important task in time series analysis, but still a challenging problem due to the diverse characteristics of time series data like abrupt trend change, outlier, noise, and especially block missing data. In this paper, we propose a robust and effective periodicity detection algorithm for time series with block missing data. We first design a robust trend filter to remove the interference of complicated trend patterns under missing data. Then, we propose a robust autocorrelation function (ACF) that can handle missing values and outliers effectively. We rigorously pro…
The estimation of periodicity is a fundamental task in many scientific areas of study. Existing methods rely on theoretical assumptions that the observation times have equal or i.i.d. spacings, and that common estimators, such as the periodogram peak, are consistent and asymptotically normal. In practice, however, these assumptions are unrealistic as observation times usually exhibit deterministic patterns -- e.g., the nightly observation cycle in astronomy -- that imprint nuisance periodicities in the data. These nuisance signals also affect the finite-sample distribution of estimators, which…
Dynamic time warping (DTW) is an effective dissimilarity measure in many time series applications. Despite its popularity, it is prone to noises and outliers, which leads to singularity problem and bias in the measurement. The time complexity of DTW is quadratic to the length of time series, making it inapplicable in real-time applications. In this paper, we propose a novel time series dissimilarity measure named RobustDTW to reduce the effects of noises and outliers. Specifically, the RobustDTW estimates the trend and optimizes the time warp in an alternating manner by utilizing our designed …
Hunan University（湖南大学）；University of Illinois, Chicago（伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校）；National Supercomputing Center in Changsha（国家超级计算长沙中心）；Comsats Institute of Information Technology（科姆萨特信息技术学院）；State University of New York, New Paltz（纽约州立大学新帕尔茨分校）
In the era of big data, practical applications in various domains continually generate large-scale time-series data. Among them, some data show significant or potential periodicity characteristics, such as meteorological and financial data. It is critical to efficiently identify the potential periodic patterns from massive time-series data and provide accurate predictions. In this paper, a Periodicity-based Parallel Time Series Prediction (PPTSP) algorithm for large-scale time-series data is proposed and implemented in the Apache Spark cloud computing environment. To effectively handle the mas…
We introduce a new periodicity detection algorithm for binary time series of event onsets, the Gaussian Mixture Periodicity Detection Algorithm (GMPDA). The algorithm approaches the periodicity detection problem to infer the parameters of a generative model. We specified two models - the Clock and Random Walk - which describe two different periodic phenomena and provide a generative framework. The algorithm achieved strong results on test cases for single and multiple periodicity detection and varying noise levels. The performance of GMPDA was also evaluated on real data, recorded leg movement…
Periodicity detection is a crucial step in time series tasks, including monitoring and forecasting of metrics in many areas, such as IoT applications and self-driving database management system. In many of these applications, multiple periodic components exist and are often interlaced with each other. Such dynamic and complicated periodic patterns make the accurate periodicity detection difficult. In addition, other components in the time series, such as trend, outliers and noises, also pose additional challenges for accurate periodicity detection. In this paper, we propose a robust and genera…
Temporal-lobe epilepsy in humans is often associated with widespread, synchronized neuron firing that co-occurs with traveling waves in local field potential. These traveling waves generate stochastic oscillations in a time series of microelectrode voltage, and previous work has deemed it informative for traveling-wave analysis to study the mean periodicity. This manuscript reveals that: a) mean voltage (i.e., traveling-wave periodicity) adequately explains the observed voltage periodicity only for a select few time intervals during seizure; and b) mean voltage has a 7 Hz cosine-series represe…
Here, we address the problem of trend estimation for functional time series. Existing contributions either deal with detecting a functional trend or assuming a simple model. They consider neither the estimation of a general functional trend nor the analysis of functional time series with a functional trend component. Similarly to univariate time series, we propose an alternative methodology to analyze functional time series, taking into account a functional trend component. We propose to estimate the functional trend by using a tensor product surface that is easy to implement, to interpret, an…
Interest in functional time series has spiked in the recent past with papers covering both methodology and applications being published at a much increased pace. This article contributes to the research in this area by proposing a new stationarity test for functional time series based on frequency domain methods. The proposed test statistics is based on joint dimension reduction via functional principal components analysis across the spectral density operators at all Fourier frequencies, explicitly allowing for frequency-dependent levels of truncation to adapt to the dynamics of the underlying…
Functional time series whose sample elements are recorded sequentially over time are frequently encountered with increasing technology. Recent studies have shown that analyzing and forecasting of functional time series can be performed easily using functional principal component analysis and existing univariate/multivariate time series models. However, the forecasting performance of such functional time series models may be affected by the presence of outlying observations which are very common in many scientific fields. Outliers may distort the functional time series model structure, and thus…
Functional time series have become an integral part of both functional data and time series analysis. Important contributions to methodology, theory and application for the prediction of future trajectories and the estimation of functional time series parameters have been made in the recent past. This paper continues this line of research by proposing a first principled approach to estimate invertible functional time series by fitting functional moving average processes. The idea is to estimate the coefficient operators in a functional linear filter. To do this a functional Innovations Algorit…
We address the problem of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series through a two-fold dimension reduction procedure. The difficulty of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series lies in the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a novel method to solve this problem. Dynamic functional principal component analysis is first applied to reduce each functional time series to a vector. We then use the factor model as a further dimension reduction technique so that only a small number of latent factors are preserved. Classic time series models can be used to forecast t…
University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its inherent periodicity as well as the sophisticated composition of various periods hinder the performance of PTS forecasting. In this paper, we introduce a deep expansion learning framework, DEPTS, for PTS forecasting. DEPTS starts with a decoupled formulation by introducing the periodic state as a hidden variable, which stimulates us to make two dedicated modu…
An approach is presented for making predictions about functional time series. The method is applied to data coming from periodically correlated processes and electricity demand, obtaining accurate point forecasts and narrow prediction bands that cover high proportions of the forecasted functional datum, for a given confidence level. The method is computationally efficient and substantially different to other functional time series methods, offering a new insight for the analysis of these data structures.
We study the importance of group structure in grouped functional time series. Due to the non-uniqueness of group structure, we investigate different disaggregation structures in grouped functional time series. We address a practical question on whether or not the group structure can affect forecast accuracy. Using a dynamic multivariate functional time series method, we consider joint modeling and forecasting multiple series. Illustrated by Japanese sub-national age-specific mortality rates from 1975 to 2016, we investigate one- to 15-step-ahead point and interval forecast accuracies for the t…
We propose a new autocorrelation measure for functional time series that we term spherical autocorrelation. It is based on measuring the average angle between lagged pairs of series after having been projected onto the unit sphere. This new measure enjoys several complimentary advantages compared to existing autocorrelation measures for functional data, since it both 1) describes a notion of sign or direction of serial dependence in the series, and 2) is more robust to outliers. The asymptotic properties of estimators of the spherical autocorrelation are established, and are used to construct …
In this paper we introduce a micro-clustering strategy for Functional Boxplots. The aim is to summarize a set of streaming time series splitted in non overlapping windows. It is a two step strategy which performs at first, an on-line summarization by means of functional data structures, named Functional Boxplot micro-clusters; then it reveals the final summarization by processing, off-line, the functional data structures. Our main contribute consists in providing a new definition of micro-cluster based on Functional Boxplots and, in defining a proximity measure which allows to compare and upda…
We develop methodology allowing to simulate a stationary functional time series defined by means of its spectral density operators. Our framework is general, in that it encompasses any such stationary functional time series, whether linear or not. The methodology manifests particularly significant computational gains if the spectral density operators are specified by means of their eigendecomposition or as a filtering of white noise. In the special case of linear processes, we determine the analytical expressions for the spectral density operators of functional autoregressive (fractionally int…
In this paper, we study the periodic fluctuations of connectivity density time series of a wind speed-monitoring network in Switzerland. By using the correlogram-based robust periodogram annual periodic oscillations were found in the correlation-based network. The intensity of such annual periodic oscillations is larger for lower correlation thresholds and smaller for higher. The annual periodicity in the connectivity density seems reasonably consistent with the seasonal meteo-climatic cycle.
Matrix factorization is a powerful data analysis tool. It has been used in multivariate time series analysis, leading to the decomposition of the series in a small set of latent factors. However, little is known on the statistical performances of matrix factorization for time series. In this paper, we extend the results known for matrix estimation in the i.i.d setting to time series. Moreover, we prove that when the series exhibit some additional structure like periodicity or smoothness, it is possible to improve on the classical rates of convergence.
The Portmanteau test provides the vanilla method for detecting serial correlations in classical univariate time series analysis. The method is extended to the case of observations from a locally stationary functional time series. Asymptotic critical values are obtained by a suitable block multiplier bootstrap procedure. The test is shown to asymptotically hold its level and to be consistent against general alternatives.
Due to the surge of data storage techniques, the need for the development of appropriate techniques to identify patterns and to extract knowledge from the resulting enormous data sets, which can be viewed as collections of dependent functional data, is of increasing interest in many scientific areas. We develop a similarity measure for spectral density operators of a collection of functional time series, which is based on the aggregation of Hilbert-Schmidt differences of the individual time-varying spectral density operators. Under fairly general conditions, the asymptotic properties of the co…
Initially designed for independent datas, low-rank matrix completion was successfully applied in many domains to the reconstruction of partially observed high-dimensional time series. However, there is a lack of theory to support the application of these methods to dependent datas. In this paper, we propose a general model for multivariate, partially observed time series. We show that the least-square method with a rank penalty leads to reconstruction error of the same order as for independent datas. Moreover, when the time series has some additional properties such as periodicity or smoothnes…
Time series analysis of fossil biodiversity of marine invertebrates in the Paleobiology Database (PBDB) shows a significant periodicity at approximately 63 My, in agreement with previous analyses based on the Sepkoski database. I discuss how this result did not appear in a previous analysis of the PBDB. The existence of the 63 My periodicity, despite very different treatment of systematic error in both PBDB and Sepkoski databases strongly argues for consideration of its reality in the fossil record. Cross-spectral analysis of the two datasets finds that a 62 My periodicity coincides in phase b…
In the class of streaming anomaly detection algorithms for univariate time series, the size of the sliding window over which various statistics are calculated is an important parameter. To address the anomalous variation in the scale of the pseudo-periodicity of time series, we define a streaming multi-scale anomaly score with a streaming PCA over a multi-scale lag-matrix. We define three methods of aggregation of the multi-scale anomaly scores. We evaluate their performance on Yahoo! and Numenta dataset for unsupervised anomaly detection benchmark. To the best of authors' knowledge, this is t…
Bootstrap methods for estimating the long-run covariance of stationary functional time series are considered. We introduce a versatile bootstrap method that relies on functional principal component analysis, where principal component scores can be bootstrapped by maximum entropy. Two other bootstrap methods resample error functions, after the dependence structure being modeled linearly by a sieve method or nonlinearly by a functional kernel regression. Through a series of Monte-Carlo simulation, we evaluate and compare the finite-sample performances of these three bootstrap methods for estimat…
A bootstrap procedure for functional time series is proposed which exploits a general vector autoregressive representation of the time series of Fourier coefficients appearing in the Karhunen-Loève expansion of the functional process. A double sieve-type bootstrap method is developed which avoids the estimation of process operators and generates functional pseudo-time series that appropriately mimic the dependence structure of the functional time series at hand. The method uses a finite set of functional principal components to capture the essential driving parts of the infinite dimensional pr…
Statistical analysis of high-dimensional functional times series arises in various applications. Under this scenario, in addition to the intrinsic infinite-dimensionality of functional data, the number of functional variables can grow with the number of serially dependent observations. In this paper, we focus on the theoretical analysis of relevant estimated cross-(auto)covariance terms between two multivariate functional time series or a mixture of multivariate functional and scalar time series beyond the Gaussianity assumption. We introduce a new perspective on dependence by proposing functi…
Functional times series have become an integral part of both functional data and time series analysis. This paper deals with the functional autoregressive model of order 1 and the autoregression bootstrap for smooth functions. The regression operator is estimated in the framework developed by Ferraty and Vieu [2004] and Ferraty et al. [2007] which is here extended to the double functional case under an assumption of stationary ergodic data which dates back to Laib and Louani [2010]. The main result of this article is the characterization of the asymptotic consistency of the bootstrapped regres…
Sleep apnea is a disorder that has serious consequences for the pediatric population. There has been recent concern that traditional diagnosis of the disorder using the apnea-hypopnea index may be ineffective in capturing its multi-faceted outcomes. In this work, we take a first step in addressing this issue by phenotyping patients using a clustering analysis of airflow time series. This is approached in three ways: using feature-based fuzzy clustering in the time and frequency domains, and using persistent homology to study the signal from a topological perspective. The fuzzy clusters are ana…
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Shandong University（山东大学）；Mälardalen University（梅拉达伦大学）；Tianjin University of Commerce（天津商业大学）
Heat demand prediction is a prominent research topic in the area of intelligent energy networks. It has been well recognized that periodicity is one of the important characteristics of heat demand. Seasonal-trend decomposition based on LOESS (STL) algorithm can analyze the periodicity of a heat demand series, and decompose the series into seasonal and trend components. Then, predicting the seasonal and trend components respectively, and combining their predictions together as the heat demand prediction is a possible way to predict heat demand. In this paper, STL-ENN-ARIMA (SEA), a combined mod…
In this paper we develop statistical inference tools for high dimensional functional time series. We introduce a new concept of physical dependent processes in the space of square integrable functions, which adopts the idea of basis decomposition of functional data in these spaces, and derive Gaussian and multiplier bootstrap approximations for sums of high dimensional functional time series. These results have numerous important statistical consequences. Exemplarily, we consider the development of joint simultaneous confidence bands for the mean functions and the construction of tests for the…
In this paper, we propose two nonparametric methods used in the forecasting of functional time-dependent data, namely functional singular spectrum analysis recurrent forecasting and vector forecasting. Both algorithms utilize the results of functional singular spectrum analysis and past observations in order to predict future data points where recurrent forecasting predicts one function at a time and the vector forecasting makes predictions using functional vectors. We compare our forecasting methods to a gold standard algorithm used in the prediction of functional, time-dependent data by way …
This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal component analysis generally improves out-of-sample forecast accuracy. More specifically, the dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement. Our models lead to multiple instances of statistically significant improvements in forecast accuracy for daily EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY implied volatility surfaces across various maturit…
Frequently econometricians are interested in verifying a relationship between two or more time series. Such analysis is typically carried out by causality and/or independence tests which have been well studied when the data is univariate or multivariate. Modern data though is increasingly of a high dimensional or functional nature for which finite dimensional methods are not suitable. In the present paper we develop methodology to check the assumption that data obtained from two functional time series are independent. Our procedure is based on the norms of empirical cross covariance operators …
Cluster indices describe extremal behaviour of stationary time series. We consider their sliding blocks estimators. Using a modern theory of multivariate, regularly varying time series, we obtain central limit theorems under conditions that can be easily verified for a large class of models. In particular, we show that in the Peak over Threshold framework, sliding and disjoint blocks estimators have the same limiting variance.
In this work a robust clustering algorithm for stationary time series is proposed. The algorithm is based on the use of estimated spectral densities, which are considered as functional data, as the basic characteristic of stationary time series for clustering purposes. A robust algorithm for functional data is then applied to the set of spectral densities. Trimming techniques and restrictions on the scatter within groups reduce the effect of noise in the data and help to prevent the identification of spurious clusters. The procedure is tested in a simulation study, and is also applied to a rea…
Long Range Dependence (LRD) in functional sequences is characterized in the spectral domain under suitable conditions. Particularly, multifractionally integrated functional autoregressive moving averages processes can be introduced in this framework. The convergence to zero in the Hilbert-Schmidt operator norm of the integrated bias of the periodogram operator is proved. Under a Gaussian scenario, a weak--consistent parametric estimator of the long--memory operator is then obtained by minimizing, in the norm of bounded linear operators, a divergence information functional loss.
We consider $α$-mixing observations and deal with the estimation of the conditional mode of a scalar response variable $Y$ given a random variable $X$ taking values in a semi-metric space. We provide a convergence rate in $L^p$ norm of the estimator. A useful and typical application to functional times series prediction is given.
Cluster indices describe extremal behaviour of stationary time series. We consider runs estimators of cluster indices. Using a modern theory of multivariate, regularly varying time series, we obtain central limit theorems under conditions that can be easily verified for a large class of models. In particular, we show that blocks and runs estimators have the same limiting variance.
Within the framework of functional data analysis, we develop principal component analysis for periodically correlated time series of functions. We define the components of the above analysis including periodic, operator-valued filters, score processes and the inversion formulas. We show that these objects are defined via convergent series under a simple condition requiring summability of the Hilbert-Schmidt norms of the filter coefficients, and that they poses optimality properties. We explain how the Hilbert space theory reduces to an approximate finite-dimensional setting which is implemente…
