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arXiv 1606.02358astro-ph.SR
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银河系新星率再探

The Galactic Nova Rate Revisited

A. W. Shafter

摘要:

尽管银河系新星率具有根本的重要性,但它的可靠估计仍然是难以捉摸的。在这里,总的银河系新星率估计外推的新星达到$m\leq2$,包括整个银河系使用两个组件的磁盘加上凸起模型的恒星在银河系中的分布率。目前的分析改进了以前的工作,考虑重要的修正不完整的观察到的速率明亮的新星,并采用蒙特卡罗分析,以更好地估计在派生新星率的不确定性。几个模型被认为是考虑到不同的假设性质的隆起和磁盘新星人口和绝对星等分布。最简单的模型,假设球和盘新星之间的统一属性,预测银河系新星率$\sim$ 50到超过100每年,这取决于假设的不完整性在明亮的星等。模型中的磁盘新星被认为是更明亮的比隆起新星进行了探索,并预测新星率高达30%,在$\sim$ 35至$\sim$ 75每年。最合理的模型的平均值得出$50_{-23}^{+31}$/年$^{-1}$的速率,这可以说是目前银河系新星速率的最佳估计。几乎所有的模型产生的速率都比最近的估计值有显著的增加,并且使银河系新星的速率与根据与河外调查的最新结果的比较而预期的速率更加一致。

英文摘要:

Despite its fundamental importance, a reliable estimate of the Galactic nova rate has remained elusive. Here, the overall Galactic nova rate is estimated by extrapolating the observed rate for novae reaching $m\leq2$ to include the entire Galaxy using a two component disk plus bulge model for the distribution of stars in the Milky Way. The present analysis improves on previous work by considering important corrections for incompleteness in the observed rate of bright novae and by employing a Monte Carlo analysis to better estimate the uncertainty in the derived nova rates. Several models are considered to account for differences in the assumed properties of bulge and disk nova populations and in the absolute magnitude distribution. The simplest models, which assume uniform properties between bulge and disk novae, predict Galactic nova rates of $\sim$50 to in excess of 100 per year, depending on the assumed incompleteness at bright magnitudes. Models where the disk novae are assumed to be more luminous than bulge novae are explored, and predict nova rates up to 30% lower, in the range of $\sim$35 to $\sim$75 per year. An average of the most plausible models yields a rate of $50_{-23}^{+31}$ yr$^{-1}$, which is arguably the best estimate currently available for the nova rate in the Galaxy. Virtually all models produce rates that represent significant increases over recent estimates, and bring the Galactic nova rate into better agreement with that expected based on comparison with the latest results from extragalactic surveys.

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