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arXiv 1602.09128stat.ME
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时间序列模型的调整经验似然法

Adjusted Empirical Likelihood for Time Series Models

Ramadha D. Piyadi Gamage, Wei Ning, Arjun K. Gupta

摘要:

Monti(1997)通过Whittle估计方法将经验似然方法应用于相依观测。对于平稳的时间序列,导出了经验似然比统计量的相似渐近分布,以构造参数的置信区域。然而,计算剖面经验似然函数所需的数值问题涉及约束最大化,有时无解,这导致使用原始版本的经验似然比的缺点。在本文中,我们提出了一个调整后的经验似然比统计量修改蒙蒂提出的,使它保证所需的最大化问题的解决方案的存在性,同时保持类似的渐近性质蒙蒂得到。仿真结果表明,在不同的时间序列模型下,该模型的覆盖率优于Monti模型,特别是在小样本量下。

英文摘要:

Empirical likelihood method has been applied to dependent observations by Monti (1997) through the Whittle's estimation method. Similar asymptotic distribution of the empirical likelihood ratio statistic for stationary time series has been derived to construct the confidence regions for the parameters. However, required numerical problem of computing profile empirical likelihood function which involves constrained maximization has no solution sometimes, which leads to the drawbacks of using the original version of the empirical likelihood ratio. In this paper, we propose an adjusted empirical likelihood ratio statistic to modify the one proposed by Monti so that it guarantees the existence of the solution of the required maximization problem, while maintaining the similar asymptotic properties as Monti obtained. Simulations have been conducted to illustrate the coverage probabilities obtained by the adjusted version for different time series models which are better than the ones obtained by Monti's version, especially for small sample sizes.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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