A grand challenge in machine learning is the development of computational algorithms that match or outperform humans in perceptual inference tasks that are complicated by nuisance variation. For instance, visual object recognition involves the unknown object position, orientation, and scale in object recognition while speech recognition involves the unknown voice pronunciation, pitch, and speed. Recently, a new breed of deep learning algorithms have emerged for high-nuisance inference tasks that routinely yield pattern recognition systems with near- or super-human capabilities. But a fundamental question remains: Why do they work? Intuitions abound, but a coherent framework for understanding, analyzing, and synthesizing deep learning architectures has remained elusive. We answer this question by developing a new probabilistic framework for deep learning based on the Deep Rendering Model: a generative probabilistic model that explicitly captures latent nuisance variation. By relaxing the generative model to a discriminative one, we can recover two of the current leading deep learning systems, deep convolutional neural networks and random decision forests, providing insights into their successes and shortcomings, as well as a principled route to their improvement.
Modern datasets often contain large subsets of correlated features and nuisance features, which are not or loosely related to the main underlying structures of the data. Nuisance features can be identified using the Laplacian score criterion, which evaluates the importance of a given feature via its consistency with the Graph Laplacians' leading eigenvectors. We demonstrate that in the presence of large numbers of nuisance features, the Laplacian must be computed on the subset of selected features rather than on the complete feature set. To do this, we propose a fully differentiable approach f…
We introduce the notion of a stochastic probabilistic program and present a reference implementation of a probabilistic programming facility supporting specification of stochastic probabilistic programs and inference in them. Stochastic probabilistic programs allow straightforward specification and efficient inference in models with nuisance parameters, noise, and nondeterminism. We give several examples of stochastic probabilistic programs, and compare the programs with corresponding deterministic probabilistic programs in terms of model specification and inference. We conclude with discussio…
Baylor College of Medicine（贝勒医学院）；Rice University（莱斯大学）
We develop a probabilistic framework for deep learning based on the Deep Rendering Mixture Model (DRMM), a new generative probabilistic model that explicitly capture variations in data due to latent task nuisance variables. We demonstrate that max-sum inference in the DRMM yields an algorithm that exactly reproduces the operations in deep convolutional neural networks (DCNs), providing a first principles derivation. Our framework provides new insights into the successes and shortcomings of DCNs as well as a principled route to their improvement. DRMM training via the Expectation-Maximization (…
Rice University（莱斯大学）；Baylor College of Medicine（贝勒医学院）
Semi-supervised learning algorithms reduce the high cost of acquiring labeled training data by using both labeled and unlabeled data during learning. Deep Convolutional Networks (DCNs) have achieved great success in supervised tasks and as such have been widely employed in the semi-supervised learning. In this paper we leverage the recently developed Deep Rendering Mixture Model (DRMM), a probabilistic generative model that models latent nuisance variation, and whose inference algorithm yields DCNs. We develop an EM algorithm for the DRMM to learn from both labeled and unlabeled data. Guided b…
University of Hong Kong（香港大学）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（上海人工智能实验室）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
Causal mediation analysis can unpack the black box of causality and is therefore a powerful tool for disentangling causal pathways in biomedical and social sciences, and also for evaluating machine learning fairness. To reduce bias for estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effects in mediation analysis, we propose a new method called DeepMed that uses deep neural networks (DNNs) to cross-fit the infinite-dimensional nuisance functions in the efficient influence functions. We obtain novel theoretical results that our DeepMed method (1) can achieve semiparametric efficiency bound without imposi…
Typical amortized inference in variational autoencoders is specialized for a single probabilistic query. Here we propose an inference network architecture that generalizes to unseen probabilistic queries. Instead of an encoder-decoder pair, we can train a single inference network directly from data, using a cost function that is stochastic not only over samples, but also over queries. We can use this network to perform the same inference tasks as we would in an undirected graphical model with hidden variables, without having to deal with the intractable partition function. The results can be m…
Probabilistic deep learning is deep learning that accounts for uncertainty, both model uncertainty and data uncertainty. It is based on the use of probabilistic models and deep neural networks. We distinguish two approaches to probabilistic deep learning: probabilistic neural networks and deep probabilistic models. The former employs deep neural networks that utilize probabilistic layers which can represent and process uncertainty; the latter uses probabilistic models that incorporate deep neural network components which capture complex non-linear stochastic relationships between the random va…
Goethe University（歌德大学）；The University of Texas at Austin（得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Yonsei University（延世大学）
Modern deep neural networks are well known to be brittle in the face of unknown data instances and recognition of the latter remains a challenge. Although it is inevitable for continual-learning systems to encounter such unseen concepts, the corresponding literature appears to nonetheless focus primarily on alleviating catastrophic interference with learned representations. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic approach that connects these perspectives based on variational inference in a single deep autoencoder model. Specifically, we propose to bound the approximate posterior by fitting …
We present a probabilistic variant of the recently introduced maxout unit. The success of deep neural networks utilizing maxout can partly be attributed to favorable performance under dropout, when compared to rectified linear units. It however also depends on the fact that each maxout unit performs a pooling operation over a group of linear transformations and is thus partially invariant to changes in its input. Starting from this observation we ask the question: Can the desirable properties of maxout units be preserved while improving their invariance properties ? We argue that our probabili…
Even though probabilistic treatments of neural networks have a long history, they have not found widespread use in practice. Sampling approaches are often too slow already for simple networks. The size of the inputs and the depth of typical CNN architectures in computer vision only compound this problem. Uncertainty in neural networks has thus been largely ignored in practice, despite the fact that it may provide important information about the reliability of predictions and the inner workings of the network. In this paper, we introduce two lightweight approaches to making supervised learning …
Annotating the right data for training deep neural networks is an important challenge. Active learning using uncertainty estimates from Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) could provide an effective solution to this. Despite being theoretically principled, BNNs require approximations to be applied to large-scale problems, where both performance and uncertainty estimation are crucial. In this paper, we introduce Deep Probabilistic Ensembles (DPEs), a scalable technique that uses a regularized ensemble to approximate a deep BNN. We conduct a series of large-scale visual active learning experiments t…
INFN - Sezione di Padova（意大利国家核物理研究所帕多瓦分所 (INFN - Sezione di Padova)）
Complex computer simulations are commonly required for accurate data modelling in many scientific disciplines, making statistical inference challenging due to the intractability of the likelihood evaluation for the observed data. Furthermore, sometimes one is interested on inference drawn over a subset of the generative model parameters while taking into account model uncertainty or misspecification on the remaining nuisance parameters. In this work, we show how non-linear summary statistics can be constructed by minimising inference-motivated losses via stochastic gradient descent such they p…
We review the problem of defining and inferring a "state" for a control system based on complex, high-dimensional, highly uncertain measurement streams such as videos. Such a state, or representation, should contain all and only the information needed for control, and discount nuisance variability in the data. It should also have finite complexity, ideally modulated depending on available resources. This representation is what we want to store in memory in lieu of the data, as it "separates" the control task from the measurement process. For the trivial case with no dynamics, a representation …
University of Almería（阿尔梅里亚大学）；Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA)（人工智能研究所（IDSIA））
InferPy is a Python package for probabilistic modeling with deep neural networks. It defines a user-friendly API that trades-off model complexity with ease of use, unlike other libraries whose focus is on dealing with very general probabilistic models at the cost of having a more complex API. In particular, this package allows to define, learn and evaluate general hierarchical probabilistic models containing deep neural networks in a compact and simple way. InferPy is built on top of Tensorflow Probability and Keras.
In this paper, we propose a deep probabilistic multi-view model that is composed of a linear multi-view layer based on probabilistic canonical correlation analysis (CCA) description in the latent space together with deep generative networks as observation models. The network is designed to decompose the variations of all views into a shared latent representation and a set of view-specific components where the shared latent representation is intended to describe the common underlying sources of variation among the views. An efficient variational inference procedure is developed that approximate…
We present a probabilistic programmed deep kernel learning approach to personalized, predictive modeling of neurodegenerative diseases. Our analysis considers a spectrum of neural and symbolic machine learning approaches, which we assess for predictive performance and important medical AI properties such as interpretability, uncertainty reasoning, data-efficiency, and leveraging domain knowledge. Our Bayesian approach combines the flexibility of Gaussian processes with the structural power of neural networks to model biomarker progressions, without needing clinical labels for training. We run …
In this paper, we introduce Deep Probabilistic Ensembles (DPEs), a scalable technique that uses a regularized ensemble to approximate a deep Bayesian Neural Network (BNN). We do so by incorporating a KL divergence penalty term into the training objective of an ensemble, derived from the evidence lower bound used in variational inference. We evaluate the uncertainty estimates obtained from our models for active learning on visual classification. Our approach steadily improves upon active learning baselines as the annotation budget is increased.
This is a tutorial and survey paper on metric learning. Algorithms are divided into spectral, probabilistic, and deep metric learning. We first start with the definition of distance metric, Mahalanobis distance, and generalized Mahalanobis distance. In spectral methods, we start with methods using scatters of data, including the first spectral metric learning, relevant methods to Fisher discriminant analysis, Relevant Component Analysis (RCA), Discriminant Component Analysis (DCA), and the Fisher-HSIC method. Then, large-margin metric learning, imbalanced metric learning, locally linear metric…
Aiming at a comprehensive and concise tutorial survey, recap of variational inference and reinforcement learning with Probabilistic Graphical Models are given with detailed derivations. Reviews and comparisons on recent advances in deep reinforcement learning are made from various aspects. We offer detailed derivations to a taxonomy of Probabilistic Graphical Model and Variational Inference methods in deep reinforcement learning, which serves as a complementary material on top of the original contributions.
In this work, we introduce a novel probabilistic representation of deep learning, which provides an explicit explanation for the Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in three aspects: (i) neurons define the energy of a Gibbs distribution; (ii) the hidden layers of DNNs formulate Gibbs distributions; and (iii) the whole architecture of DNNs can be interpreted as a Bayesian neural network. Based on the proposed probabilistic representation, we investigate two fundamental properties of deep learning: hierarchy and generalization. First, we explicitly formulate the hierarchy property from the Bayesian pers…
Uber AI Labs（优步人工智能实验室）；Uber Technologies, Inc.（优步科技公司）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accelerated deep learning framework. To accommodate complex or model-specific algorithmic behavior, Pyro leverages Poutine, a library of composable building blocks for modifying the behavior of probabilistic programs.
Norwegian University of Science and Technology（挪威科技大学）；Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）
Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit within the main memory of the computer. However, developments in variational inference, a general form of approximate probabilistic inference originated in statistical physics, are allowing probabilistic modeling to overcome these restrictions: (i) Approximate probabilistic infer…
UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；TU Dortmund（多特蒙德工业大学）
Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expressive power of intractable models based on deep neural networks. Therefore, we introduce conditional SPNs (CSPNs), conditional density estimators for multivariate and potentially hybrid domains which allow harnessing the expressive power of neural networks while still maintainin…
While deep learning-based classification is generally tackled using standardized approaches, a wide variety of techniques are employed for regression. In computer vision, one particularly popular such technique is that of confidence-based regression, which entails predicting a confidence value for each input-target pair (x,y). While this approach has demonstrated impressive results, it requires important task-dependent design choices, and the predicted confidences lack a natural probabilistic meaning. We address these issues by proposing a general and conceptually simple regression method with…
Stan is a probabilistic programming language that is popular in the statistics community, with a high-level syntax for expressing probabilistic models. Stan differs by nature from generative probabilistic programming languages like Church, Anglican, or Pyro. This paper presents a comprehensive compilation scheme to compile any Stan model to a generative language and proves its correctness. We use our compilation scheme to build two new backends for the Stanc3 compiler targeting Pyro and NumPyro. Experimental results show that the NumPyro backend yields a 2.3x speedup compared to Stan in geomet…
In this paper we propose a deep recurrent architecture for the probabilistic modelling of high-frequency market prices, important for the risk management of automated trading systems. Our proposed architecture incorporates probabilistic mixture models into deep recurrent neural networks. The resulting deep mixture models simultaneously address several practical challenges important in the development of automated high-frequency trading strategies that were previously neglected in the literature: 1) probabilistic forecasting of the price movements; 2) single objective prediction of both the dir…
AI Institute（人工智能研究院）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time series forecasting whereby the non-linear emission model and transition model are parameterized by networks and the dependency is modeled by recurrent neural nets. We take the automatic relevance determination (ARD) view and devise a network to exploit the exogenous variables in addition to time series. In particular, our ARD network can incorporate the uncertai…
Proxy-based Deep Metric Learning (DML) learns deep representations by embedding images close to their class representatives (proxies), commonly with respect to the angle between them. However, this disregards the embedding norm, which can carry additional beneficial context such as class- or image-intrinsic uncertainty. In addition, proxy-based DML struggles to learn class-internal structures. To address both issues at once, we introduce non-isotropic probabilistic proxy-based DML. We model images as directional von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distributions on the hypersphere that can reflect image-int…
The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）
Recent advances in deep generative models have led to impressive results in a variety of application domains. Motivated by the possibility that deep learning models might memorize part of the input data, there have been increased efforts to understand how memorization arises. In this work, we extend a recently proposed measure of memorization for supervised learning (Feldman, 2019) to the unsupervised density estimation problem and adapt it to be more computationally efficient. Next, we present a study that demonstrates how memorization can occur in probabilistic deep generative models such as…
We introduce a new category of multivariate conditional generative models and demonstrate its performance and versatility in probabilistic time series forecasting and simulation. Specifically, the output of quantile regression networks is expanded from a set of fixed quantiles to the whole Quantile Function by a univariate mapping from a latent uniform distribution to the target distribution. Then the multivariate case is solved by learning such quantile functions for each dimension's marginal distribution, followed by estimating a conditional Copula to associate these latent uniform random va…
Generating interpretable visualizations from complex data is a common problem in many applications. Two key ingredients for tackling this issue are clustering and representation learning. However, current methods do not yet successfully combine the strengths of these two approaches. Existing representation learning models which rely on latent topological structure such as self-organising maps, exhibit markedly lower clustering performance compared to recent deep clustering methods. To close this performance gap, we (a) present a novel way to fit self-organizing maps with probabilistic cluster …
Dalian University of Technology（大连理工大学）；Shenyang Blower Works Group Corporation（沈阳鼓风机集团股份有限公司）
The demand of probabilistic time series forecasting has been recently raised in various dynamic system scenarios, for example, system identification and prognostic and health management of machines. To this end, we combine the advances in both deep generative models and state space model (SSM) to come up with a novel, data-driven deep probabilistic sequence model. Specifically, we follow the popular encoder-decoder generative structure to build the recurrent neural networks (RNN) assisted variational sequence model on an augmented recurrent input space, which could induce rich stochastic seque…
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory（劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室）
While Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) achieve state-of-the-art accuracy in various applications, they often fall short in accurately estimating their predictive uncertainty and, in turn, fail to recognize when these predictions may be wrong. Several uncertainty-aware models, such as Bayesian Neural Network (BNNs) and Deep Ensembles have been proposed in the literature for quantifying predictive uncertainty. However, research in this area has been largely confined to the big data regime. In this work, we show that the uncertainty estimation capability of state-of-the-art BNNs and Deep Ensemble mode…
Labeling training examples at scale is a perennial challenge in machine learning. Self-supervision methods compensate for the lack of direct supervision by leveraging prior knowledge to automatically generate noisy labeled examples. Deep probabilistic logic (DPL) is a unifying framework for self-supervised learning that represents unknown labels as latent variables and incorporates diverse self-supervision using probabilistic logic to train a deep neural network end-to-end using variational EM. While DPL is successful at combining pre-specified self-supervision, manually crafting self-supervis…
Datasets with noisy labels are a common occurrence in practical applications of classification methods. We propose a simple probabilistic method for training deep classifiers under input-dependent (heteroscedastic) label noise. We assume an underlying heteroscedastic generative process for noisy labels. To make gradient based training feasible we use a temperature parameterized softmax as a smooth approximation to the assumed generative process. We illustrate that the softmax temperature controls a bias-variance trade-off for the approximation. By tuning the softmax temperature, we improve acc…
Universitat Politècnica de València（瓦伦西亚理工大学）；Universidad Autónoma de Madrid（马德里自治大学）
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art accuracy performance in many tasks. However, recent works have pointed out that the outputs provided by these models are not well-calibrated, seriously limiting their use in critical decision scenarios. In this work, we propose to use a decoupled Bayesian stage, implemented with a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), to map the uncalibrated probabilities provided by a DNN to calibrated ones, consistently improving calibration. Our results evidence that incorporating uncertainty provides more reliable probabilistic models, a critical conditio…
Despite the success of existing tensor factorization methods, most of them conduct a multilinear decomposition, and rarely exploit powerful modeling frameworks, like deep neural networks, to capture a variety of complicated interactions in data. More important, for highly expressive, deep factorization, we lack an effective approach to handle streaming data, which are ubiquitous in real-world applications. To address these issues, we propose SPIDER, a Streaming ProbabilistIc Deep tEnsoR factorization method. We first use Bayesian neural networks (NNs) to construct a deep tensor factorization m…
Deep Probabilistic Programming (DPP) allows powerful models based on recursive computation to be learned using efficient deep-learning optimization techniques. Additionally, DPP offers a unified perspective, where inference and learning algorithms are treated on a par with models as stochastic programs. Here, we offer a framework for representing and learning flexible PAC-Bayes bounds as stochastic programs using DPP-based methods. In particular, we show that DPP techniques may be leveraged to derive generalization bounds that draw on the compositionality of DPP representations. In turn, the b…
Evaluating the reliability of intelligent physical systems against rare safety-critical events poses a huge testing burden for real-world applications. Simulation provides a useful platform to evaluate the extremal risks of these systems before their deployments. Importance Sampling (IS), while proven to be powerful for rare-event simulation, faces challenges in handling these learning-based systems due to their black-box nature that fundamentally undermines its efficiency guarantee, which can lead to under-estimation without diagnostically detected. We propose a framework called Deep Probabil…
Machine Learning on graph-structured data is an important and omnipresent task for a vast variety of applications including anomaly detection and dynamic network analysis. In this paper, a deep generative model is introduced to capture continuous probability densities corresponding to the nodes of an arbitrary graph. In contrast to all learning formulations in the area of discriminative pattern recognition, we propose a scalable generative optimization/algorithm theoretically proved to capture distributions at the nodes of a graph. Our model is able to generate samples from the probability den…
Probabilistic modeling enables combining domain knowledge with learning from data, thereby supporting learning from fewer training instances than purely data-driven methods. However, learning probabilistic models is difficult and has not achieved the level of performance of methods such as deep neural networks on many tasks. In this paper, we attempt to address this issue by presenting a method for learning the parameters of a probabilistic program using backpropagation. Our approach opens the possibility to building deep probabilistic programming models that are trained in a similar way to ne…
Toronto Metropolitan University（多伦多都会大学）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）
Despite the high performance of neural network-based time series forecasting methods, the inherent challenge in explaining their predictions has limited their applicability in certain application areas. Due to the difficulty in identifying causal relationships between the input and output of such black-box methods, they rarely have been adopted in domains such as legal and medical fields in which the reliability and interpretability of the results can be essential. In this paper, we propose \model, a novel deep learning-based probabilistic time series forecasting architecture that is intrinsic…
Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are powerful modelling tools which allow to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about its inherent uncertainty. Inference methods used in PPL can be computationally costly due to significant time burden and/or storage requirements; or they can lack theoretical guarantees of convergence and accuracy when applied to large scale graphical models. To this end, we present the Universal Marginaliser (UM), a novel method for amortised inference, in PPL. We show how combining samples drawn from the original probabilistic program prior with an a…
We discuss an approach to probabilistic forecasting based on two chained machine-learning steps: a dimensional reduction step that learns a reduction map of predictor information to a low-dimensional space in a manner designed to preserve information about forecast quantities; and a density estimation step that uses the probabilistic machine learning technique of normalizing flows to compute the joint probability density of reduced predictors and forecast quantities. This joint density is then renormalized to produce the conditional forecast distribution. In this method, probabilistic calibrat…
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）
In this paper we introduce ZhuSuan, a python probabilistic programming library for Bayesian deep learning, which conjoins the complimentary advantages of Bayesian methods and deep learning. ZhuSuan is built upon Tensorflow. Unlike existing deep learning libraries, which are mainly designed for deterministic neural networks and supervised tasks, ZhuSuan is featured for its deep root into Bayesian inference, thus supporting various kinds of probabilistic models, including both the traditional hierarchical Bayesian models and recent deep generative models. We use running examples to illustrate th…
The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which are typically underspecified by the data, and can represent many compelling but different solutions. We show that deep ensembles provide an effective mechanism for approximate Bayesian marginalization, and propose a related approach that further improves the predictive distribution by marginalizing within basins of attraction, without significant overhead. We…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）
The need for consistent treatment of uncertainty has recently triggered increased interest in probabilistic deep learning methods. However, most current approaches have severe limitations when it comes to inference, since many of these models do not even permit to evaluate exact data likelihoods. Sum-product networks (SPNs), on the other hand, are an excellent architecture in that regard, as they allow to efficiently evaluate likelihoods, as well as arbitrary marginalization and conditioning tasks. Nevertheless, SPNs have not been fully explored as serious deep learning models, likely due to t…
Systems are commonly monitored for health and security through collection and streaming of multivariate time series. Advances in time series forecasting due to adoption of multilayer recurrent neural network architectures make it possible to forecast in high-dimensional time series, and identify and classify novelties early, based on subtle changes in the trends. However, mainstream approaches to multi-variate time series predictions do not handle well cases when the ongoing forecast must include uncertainty, nor they are robust to missing data. We introduce a new architecture for time series …
Data poisoning attacks compromise the integrity of machine-learning models by introducing malicious training samples to influence the results during test time. In this work, we investigate backdoor data poisoning attack on deep neural networks (DNNs) by inserting a backdoor pattern in the training images. The resulting attack will misclassify poisoned test samples while maintaining high accuracies for the clean test-set. We present two approaches for detection of such poisoned samples by quantifying the uncertainty estimates associated with the trained models. In the first approach, we model t…
TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Max-Planck-Institute（马克斯-普朗克研究所）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）；University of Bari “Aldo Moro”（巴里大学“阿尔多·莫罗”）
We introduce SPFlow, an open-source Python library providing a simple interface to inference, learning and manipulation routines for deep and tractable probabilistic models called Sum-Product Networks (SPNs). The library allows one to quickly create SPNs both from data and through a domain specific language (DSL). It efficiently implements several probabilistic inference routines like computing marginals, conditionals and (approximate) most probable explanations (MPEs) along with sampling as well as utilities for serializing, plotting and structure statistics on an SPN. Moreover, many of the a…
Recent work on Path-Dependent Partial Differential Equations (PPDEs) has shown that PPDE solutions can be approximated by a probabilistic representation, implemented in the literature by the estimation of conditional expectations using regression. However, a limitation of this approach is to require the selection of a basis in a function space. In this paper, we overcome this limitation by the use of deep learning methods, and we show that this setting allows for the derivation of error bounds on the approximation of conditional expectations. Numerical examples based on a two-person zero-sum g…
Berkeley Artificial Intelligence Research（伯克利人工智能研究院）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can attain excellent sample efficiency, but often lag behind the best model-free algorithms in terms of asymptotic performance. This is especially true with high-capacity parametric function approximators, such as deep networks. In this paper, we study how to bridge this gap, by employing uncertainty-aware dynamics models. We propose a new algorithm called probabilistic ensembles with trajectory sampling (PETS) that combines uncertainty-aware deep network dynamics models with sampling-based uncertainty propagation. Our comparison to state-of-t…
