The need for consistent treatment of uncertainty has recently triggered increased interest in probabilistic deep learning methods. However, most current approaches have severe limitations when it comes to inference, since many of these models do not even permit to evaluate exact data likelihoods. Sum-product networks (SPNs), on the other hand, are an excellent architecture in that regard, as they allow to efficiently evaluate likelihoods, as well as arbitrary marginalization and conditioning tasks. Nevertheless, SPNs have not been fully explored as serious deep learning models, likely due to their special structural requirements, which complicate learning. In this paper, we make a drastic simplification and use random SPN structures which are trained in a "classical deep learning manner", i.e. employing automatic differentiation, SGD, and GPU support. The resulting models, called RAT-SPNs, yield prediction results comparable to deep neural networks, while still being interpretable as generative model and maintaining well-calibrated uncertainties. This property makes them highly robust under missing input features and enables them to naturally detect outliers and peculiar samples.
University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Probabilistic representations, such as Bayesian and Markov networks, are fundamental to much of statistical machine learning. Thus, learning probabilistic representations directly from data is a deep challenge, the main computational bottleneck being inference that is intractable. Tractable learning is a powerful new paradigm that attempts to learn distributions that support efficient probabilistic querying. By leveraging local structure, representations such as sum-product networks (SPNs) can capture high tree-width models with many hidden layers, essentially a deep architecture, while still …
University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Probabilistic representations, such as Bayesian and Markov networks, are fundamental to much of statistical machine learning. Thus, learning probabilistic representations directly from data is a deep challenge, the main computational bottleneck being inference that is intractable. Tractable learning is a powerful new paradigm that attempts to learn distributions that support efficient probabilistic querying. By leveraging local structure, representations such as sum-product networks (SPNs) can capture high tree-width models with many hidden layers, essentially a deep architecture, while still …
The Libra Toolkit is a collection of algorithms for learning and inference with discrete probabilistic models, including Bayesian networks, Markov networks, dependency networks, and sum-product networks. Compared to other toolkits, Libra places a greater emphasis on learning the structure of tractable models in which exact inference is efficient. It also includes a variety of algorithms for learning graphical models in which inference is potentially intractable, and for performing exact and approximate inference. Libra is released under a 2-clause BSD license to encourage broad use in academia…
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argue that a similar probabilistic programming facility can be added to most modern general-purpose programming languages. Probabilistic programming enables automatic tuning of program parameters and algorithmic decision making through probabilistic inference based on the data. To fa…
A sum-product network (SPN) is a probabilistic model, based on a rooted acyclic directed graph, in which terminal nodes represent univariate probability distributions and non-terminal nodes represent convex combinations (weighted sums) and products of probability functions. They are closely related to probabilistic graphical models, in particular to Bayesian networks with multiple context-specific independencies. Their main advantage is the possibility of building tractable models from data, i.e., models that can perform several inference tasks in time proportional to the number of links in th…
Smooth Reparameterizations of Functions on Simplicial Product Spaces: Applications to Probabilistic Tensor Decomposition and Functional Data Registration
Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）；UCLouvain（鲁汶大学（法语））
We introduce factorize sum split product networks (FSPNs), a new class of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). FSPNs are designed to overcome the drawbacks of existing PGMs in terms of estimation accuracy and inference efficiency. Specifically, Bayesian networks (BNs) have low inference speed and performance of tree structured sum product networks(SPNs) significantly degrades in presence of highly correlated variables. FSPNs absorb their advantages by adaptively modeling the joint distribution of variables according to their dependence degree, so that one can simultaneously attain the two de…
We study machine learning formulations of inductive program synthesis; that is, given input-output examples, synthesize source code that maps inputs to corresponding outputs. Our key contribution is TerpreT, a domain-specific language for expressing program synthesis problems. A TerpreT model is composed of a specification of a program representation and an interpreter that describes how programs map inputs to outputs. The inference task is to observe a set of input-output examples and infer the underlying program. From a TerpreT model we automatically perform inference using four different ba…
Probabilistic programming is related to a compositional approach to stochastic modeling by switching from discrete to continuous time dynamics. In continuous time, an operator-algebra semantics is available in which processes proceeding in parallel (and possibly interacting) have summed time-evolution operators. From this foundation, algorithms for simulation, inference and model reduction may be systematically derived. The useful consequences are potentially far-reaching in computational science, machine learning and beyond. Hybrid compositional stochastic modeling/probabilistic programming a…
Interdisciplinary Center for Security, Reliability and Trust（安全、可靠性与信任跨学科中心）；University of Luxembourg（卢森堡大学）
Bayesian network is a complete model for the variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to complex problems. In the application of Bayesian networks, most of the work is related to probabilistic inferences. Any variable updating in any node of Bayesian networks might result in the evidence propagation across the Bayesian networks. This paper sums up various inference techniques in Bayesian networks and provide guidance for the algorithm calculation …
Classification of retail products: From probabilistic ranking to neural networks
College of Computing and Information Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport（阿拉伯科学、技术与海运学院计算与信息技术学院）；Universidade de Vigo（维戈大学）
IAV GmbH（IAV有限公司）；DFKI GmbH（德国人工智能研究中心）；University of Kaiserslautern（凯泽斯劳滕大学）
The recent developments in the machine learning domain have enabled the development of complex multivariate probabilistic forecasting models. Therefore, it is pivotal to have a precise evaluation method to gauge the performance and predictability power of these complex methods. To do so, several evaluation metrics have been proposed in the past (such as Energy Score, Dawid-Sebastiani score, variogram score), however, they cannot reliably measure the performance of a probabilistic forecaster. Recently, CRPS-sum has gained a lot of prominence as a reliable metric for multivariate probabilistic f…
Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are expressive probabilistic models that provide exact, tractable inference. They achieve this efficiency by making use of local independence. On the other hand, mixtures of exchangeable variable models (MEVMs) are a class of tractable probabilistic models that make use of exchangeability of discrete random variables to render inference tractable. Exchangeability, which arises naturally in relational domains, has not been considered for efficient representation and inference in SPNs yet. The contribution of this paper is a novel probabilistic model which we call Exc…
TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Centre for Cognitive Science, TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学认知科学中心）；Hessian Center for AI (hessian.AI)（黑森州人工智能中心）
Probabilistic circuits (PCs) have become the de-facto standard for learning and inference in probabilistic modeling. We introduce Sum-Product-Attention Networks (SPAN), a new generative model that integrates probabilistic circuits with Transformers. SPAN uses self-attention to select the most relevant parts of a probabilistic circuit, here sum-product networks, to improve the modeling capability of the underlying sum-product network. We show that while modeling, SPAN focuses on a specific set of independent assumptions in every product layer of the sum-product network. Our empirical evaluation…
UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；TU Dortmund（多特蒙德工业大学）
Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expressive power of intractable models based on deep neural networks. Therefore, we introduce conditional SPNs (CSPNs), conditional density estimators for multivariate and potentially hybrid domains which allow harnessing the expressive power of neural networks while still maintainin…
TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Max-Planck-Institute（马克斯-普朗克研究所）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）；University of Bari “Aldo Moro”（巴里大学“阿尔多·莫罗”）
We introduce SPFlow, an open-source Python library providing a simple interface to inference, learning and manipulation routines for deep and tractable probabilistic models called Sum-Product Networks (SPNs). The library allows one to quickly create SPNs both from data and through a domain specific language (DSL). It efficiently implements several probabilistic inference routines like computing marginals, conditionals and (approximate) most probable explanations (MPEs) along with sampling as well as utilities for serializing, plotting and structure statistics on an SPN. Moreover, many of the a…
We present the Sum-Product Probabilistic Language (SPPL), a new probabilistic programming language that automatically delivers exact solutions to a broad range of probabilistic inference queries. SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, a new symbolic representation and associated semantic domain that extends standard sum-product networks to support mixed-type distributions, numeric transformations, logical formulas, and pointwise and set-valued constraints. We formalize SPPL via a novel translation strategy from probabilistic programs to sum-product expressions and…
We consider the problem of explaining a class of tractable deep probabilistic models, the Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) and present an algorithm ExSPN to generate explanations. To this effect, we define the notion of a context-specific independence tree(CSI-tree) and present an iterative algorithm that converts an SPN to a CSI-tree. The resulting CSI-tree is both interpretable and explainable to the domain expert. We achieve this by extracting the conditional independencies encoded by the SPN and approximating the local context specified by the structure of the SPN. Our extensive empirical evalu…
Inspired by the possibility that generative models based on quantum circuits can provide a useful inductive bias for sequence modeling tasks, we propose an efficient training algorithm for a subset of classically simulable quantum circuit models. The gradient-free algorithm, presented as a sequence of exactly solvable effective models, is a modification of the density matrix renormalization group procedure adapted for learning a probability distribution. The conclusion that circuit-based models offer a useful inductive bias for classical datasets is supported by experimental results on the par…
We introduce Graph-Structured Sum-Product Networks (GraphSPNs), a probabilistic approach to structured prediction for problems where dependencies between latent variables are expressed in terms of arbitrary, dynamic graphs. While many approaches to structured prediction place strict constraints on the interactions between inferred variables, many real-world problems can be only characterized using complex graph structures of varying size, often contaminated with noise when obtained from real data. Here, we focus on one such problem in the domain of robotics. We demonstrate how GraphSPNs can be…
TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；The University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；Hessian Center for AI (hessian.AI)（黑森人工智能中心 (hessian.AI)）
While probabilistic models are an important tool for studying causality, doing so suffers from the intractability of inference. As a step towards tractable causal models, we consider the problem of learning interventional distributions using sum-product networks (SPNs) that are over-parameterized by gate functions, e.g., neural networks. Providing an arbitrarily intervened causal graph as input, effectively subsuming Pearl's do-operator, the gate function predicts the parameters of the SPN. The resulting interventional SPNs are motivated and illustrated by a structural causal model themed arou…
KTH Royal Institute of Technology（瑞典皇家理工学院）；MessageBird（MessageBird公司）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are hierarchical, graphical models that combine benefits of deep learning and probabilistic modeling. SPNs offer unique advantages to applications demanding exact probabilistic inference over high-dimensional, noisy inputs. Yet, compared to convolutional neural nets, they struggle with capturing complex spatial relationships in image data. To alleviate this issue, we introduce Deep Generalized Convolutional Sum-Product Networks (DGC-SPNs), which encode spatial features in a way similar to CNNs, while preserving the validity of the probabilistic SPN model. As opposed…
This project explores several Machine Learning methods to predict movie genres based on plot summaries. Naive Bayes, Word2Vec+XGBoost and Recurrent Neural Networks are used for text classification, while K-binary transformation, rank method and probabilistic classification with learned probability threshold are employed for the multi-label problem involved in the genre tagging task.Experiments with more than 250,000 movies show that employing the Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) neural networks for the probabilistic classification with learned probability threshold approach achieves the best result…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；University of Bari（巴里大学）
Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are recently introduced deep tractable probabilistic models by which several kinds of inference queries can be answered exactly and in a tractable time. Up to now, they have been largely used as black box density estimators, assessed only by comparing their likelihood scores only. In this paper we explore and exploit the inner representations learned by SPNs. We do this with a threefold aim: first we want to get a better understanding of the inner workings of SPNs; secondly, we seek additional ways to evaluate one SPN model and compare it against other probabilistic…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
We develop SHOPPER, a sequential probabilistic model of shopping data. SHOPPER uses interpretable components to model the forces that drive how a customer chooses products; in particular, we designed SHOPPER to capture how items interact with other items. We develop an efficient posterior inference algorithm to estimate these forces from large-scale data, and we analyze a large dataset from a major chain grocery store. We are interested in answering counterfactual queries about changes in prices. We found that SHOPPER provides accurate predictions even under price interventions, and that it he…
Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Portland State University（波特兰州立大学）
We consider the problem of group testing with sum observations and noiseless answers, in which we aim to locate multiple objects by querying the number of objects in each of a sequence of chosen sets. We study a probabilistic setting with entropy loss, in which we assume a joint Bayesian prior density on the locations of the objects and seek to choose the sets queried to minimize the expected entropy of the Bayesian posterior distribution after a fixed number of questions. We present a new non-adaptive policy, called the dyadic policy, show it is optimal among non-adaptive policies, and is wit…
University of Bristol（布里斯托尔大学）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）
In this paper, we derive a novel probabilistic model of boosting as a Product of Experts. We re-derive the boosting algorithm as a greedy incremental model selection procedure which ensures that addition of new experts to the ensemble does not decrease the likelihood of the data. These learning rules lead to a generic boosting algorithm - POE- Boost which turns out to be similar to the AdaBoost algorithm under certain assumptions on the expert probabilities. The paper then extends the POEBoost algorithm to POEBoost.CS which handles hypothesis that produce probabilistic predictions. This new al…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；NEC Research Institute（NEC研究院）
Recommender systems leverage product and community information to target products to consumers. Researchers have developed collaborative recommenders, content-based recommenders, and (largely ad-hoc) hybrid systems. We propose a unified probabilistic framework for merging collaborative and content-based recommendations. We extend Hofmann's [1999] aspect model to incorporate three-way co-occurrence data among users, items, and item content. The relative influence of collaboration data versus content data is not imposed as an exogenous parameter, but rather emerges naturally from the given data …
We propose a probabilistic interpretation of exponential dot product attention of transformers and contrastive learning based off of exponential families. The attention sublayer of transformers is equivalent to a gradient ascent step of the log normalizer, which is the log-sum-exp term in the Hopfield theory of attention. This ascent step induces a parallel expansion of points, which is counterbalanced by a contraction from layer normalization. We also state theoretical limitations of our theory and the Hopfield theory and suggest directions for resolution.
