InferPy: Probabilistic Modeling with Deep Neural Networks Made Easy

SPFlow: An Easy and Extensible Library for Deep Probabilistic Learning using Sum-Product Networks

We introduce SPFlow, an open-source Python library providing a simple interface to inference, learning and manipulation routines for deep and tractable probabilistic models called Sum-Product Networks (SPNs). The library allows one to quickly create SPNs both from data and through a domain specific language (DSL). It efficiently implements several probabilistic inference routines like computing marginals, conditionals and (approximate) most probable explanations (MPEs) along with sampling as well as utilities for serializing, plotting and structure statistics on an SPN. Moreover, many of the a…

An Easy to Interpret Diagnostic for Approximate Inference: Symmetric Divergence Over Simulations

It is important to estimate the errors of probabilistic inference algorithms. Existing diagnostics for Markov chain Monte Carlo methods assume inference is asymptotically exact, and are not appropriate for approximate methods like variational inference or Laplace's method. This paper introduces a diagnostic based on repeatedly simulating datasets from the prior and performing inference on each. The central observation is that it is possible to estimate a symmetric KL-divergence defined over these simulations.

Towards Easier and Faster Sequence Labeling for Natural Language Processing: A Search-based Probabilistic Online Learning Framework (SAPO)

There are two major approaches for sequence labeling. One is the probabilistic gradient-based methods such as conditional random fields (CRF) and neural networks (e.g., RNN), which have high accuracy but drawbacks: slow training, and no support of search-based optimization (which is important in many cases). The other is the search-based learning methods such as structured perceptron and margin infused relaxed algorithm (MIRA), which have fast training but also drawbacks: low accuracy, no probabilistic information, and non-convergence in real-world tasks. We propose a novel and "easy" solution…

Probabilistic Easy Variational Causal Effect（概率简易变分因果效应）

Probabilistic Easy Variational Causal Effect

本文提出名为PEACE的因果效应度量函数，可处理连续与离散情形下的广泛因果问题，具备可识别性与稳定性，能适配输入变量微观或宏观变化的因果分析需求。

Probabilistic End-to-end Noise Correction for Learning with Noisy Labels

Deep learning has achieved excellent performance in various computer vision tasks, but requires a lot of training examples with clean labels. It is easy to collect a dataset with noisy labels, but such noise makes networks overfit seriously and accuracies drop dramatically. To address this problem, we propose an end-to-end framework called PENCIL, which can update both network parameters and label estimations as label distributions. PENCIL is independent of the backbone network structure and does not need an auxiliary clean dataset or prior information about noise, thus it is more general and …

Multi-Model Probabilistic Programming

Probabilistic programming makes it easy to represent a probabilistic model as a program. Building an individual model, however, is only one step of probabilistic modeling. The broader challenge of probabilistic modeling is in understanding and navigating spaces of alternative models. There is currently no good way to represent these spaces of alternative models, despite their central role. We present an extension of probabilistic programming that lets each program represent a network of interrelated probabilistic models. We give a formal semantics for these multi-model probabilistic programs, …