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arXiv 1503.04803astro-ph.HEgr-qc
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用脉冲星定时阵列探测的第一个引力波信号的预期特性

Expected properties of the first gravitational wave signal detected with pulsar timing arrays

Pablo A. Rosado, Alberto Sesana, Jonathan Gair

摘要:

在本文中,我们试图调查的性质的第一个引力波(GW)信号被检测到的脉冲星定时阵列(PTA):它会是一个单独的,解决了超大质量黑洞二(SBHB),或由一个合奏SBHB产生的GW叠加的随机背景?为了解决这个问题,我们分析了一系列广泛的模拟宇宙学人口的SBHB,覆盖了整个参数空间允许当前的电磁观测在一个公正的方式。对于每个模拟,我们构建预期的GW信号,并确定最响亮的单个源。然后,我们采用适当的检测统计,以评估检测到每种类型的源作为各种PTA的时间函数的相对概率,我们认为目前的国际PTA,并推测到平方公里阵列的时代。第一个可检测的个人SBHB的主要属性也进行了研究。与以前的工作相反,我们投我们的结果的检测概率(DP),因为通常采用的标准的基础上的信噪比阈值是依赖于统计,并可能导致误导性的结论,在这里采用的统计。我们的研究结果定量地证实了随机信号更有可能首先被检测到(概率在75%到93%之间,取决于阵列),但是单源的DP是不可忽略的。我们的框架是非常灵活的,可以很容易地扩展到更现实的阵列和信号模型,包括环境耦合和SBHB偏心。

英文摘要:

In this paper we attempt to investigate the nature of the first gravitational wave (GW) signal to be detected by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs): will it be an individual, resolved supermassive black hole binary (SBHB), or a stochastic background made by the superposition of GWs produced by an ensemble of SBHBs? To address this issue, we analyse a broad set of simulations of the cosmological population of SBHBs, that cover the entire parameter space allowed by current electromagnetic observations in an unbiased way. For each simulation, we construct the expected GW signal and identify the loudest individual sources. We then employ appropriate detection statistics to evaluate the relative probability of detecting each type of source as a function of time for a variety of PTAs; we consider the current International PTA, and speculate into the era of the Square Kilometre Array. The main properties of the first detectable individual SBHBs are also investigated. Contrary to previous work, we cast our results in terms of the detection probability (DP), since the commonly adopted criterion based on a signal-to-noise ratio threshold is statistic-dependent and may result in misleading conclusions for the statistics adopted here. Our results confirm quantitatively that a stochastic signal is more likely to be detected first (with between 75 to 93 per cent probability, depending on the array), but the DP of single-sources is not negligible. Our framework is very flexible and can be easily extended to more realistic arrays and to signal models including environmental coupling and SBHB eccentricity.

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