In this paper, we consider the problem of statistical inference for generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes of the type \[ X_{t} = e^{-ξ_{t}} \left( X_{0} + \int_{0}^{t} e^{ξ_{u-}} d u \right), \] where \(ξ_s\) is a L{é}vy process. Our primal goal is to estimate the characteristics of the Lévy process \(ξ\) from the low-frequency observations of the process \(X\). We present a novel approach towards estimating the L{é}vy triplet of \(ξ,\) which is based on the Mellin transform technique. It is shown that the resulting estimates attain optimal minimax convergence rates. The suggested algorithms are illustrated by numerical simulations.
We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters of positive recurrent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.
We compare two ways of constructing confidence intervals for the moments-matching parameter estimates of a Gaussian spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. It was found that those obtained via pairwise likelihood approximations had lower coverages and were more prone to the curse of dimensionality as opposed to those from a parametric bootstrap procedure.
Spatio-temporal modelling is an increasingly popular topic in Statistics. Our paper contributes to this line of research by developing the theory, simulation and inference for a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We conduct detailed simulation studies and demonstrate the practical relevance of these processes in an empirical study of radiation anomaly data. Finally, we describe how predictions can be carried out in the Gaussian setting.
This paper is devoted to parameter estimation of the mixed fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a drift. Large sample asymptotical properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator is deduced using the Laplace transform computations or the Cameron-Martin formula with extra part from \cite{CK19}
We discuss estimation problems where a polynomial is observed under Ornstein Uhlenbeck noise over a long time interval. We prove local asymptotic normality (LAN) and specify asymptotically efficient estimators. We apply this to the following problem: feeding noise into the classical (deterministic) Hodgkin Huxley model of neuroscience, we are interested in asymptotically efficient estimation of the parameters of the noise process.
We consider the problem of estimation of the drift parameter of an ergodic Ornstein--Uhlenbeck type process driven by a Lévy process with heavy tails. The process is observed continuously on a long time interval $[0,T]$, $T\to\infty$. We prove that the statistical model is locally asymptotic mixed normal and the maximum likelihood estimator is asymptotically efficient.
For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameter is totally different in the stable, unstable, and explosive cases. Notwithstanding of this trichotomy, we investigate sharp large deviation principles for this estimator in the three situations. In the explosive case, we exhibit a very unusual rate function with a shaped flat valley and an abrupt discontinuity point at its minimum.
We investigate the large deviation properties of the maximum likelihood estimators for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with shift. We estimate simultaneously the drift and shift parameters. On the one hand, we establish a large deviation principle for the maximum likelihood estimates of the drift and shift parameters. Surprisingly, we find that the drift estimator shares the same large deviation principle as the one previously established for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process without shift. Sharp large deviation principles are also provided. On the other hand, we show that the maximum likelihood e…
We refer by threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck to a continuous-time threshold autoregressive process. It follows the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics when above or below a fixed level, yet at this level (threshold) its coefficients can be discontinuous. We discuss (quasi)-maximum likelihood estimation of the drift parameters, both assuming continuous and discrete time observations. In the ergodic case, we derive consistency and speed of convergence of these estimators in long time and high frequency. Based on these results, we develop a test for the presence of a threshold in the dynamics. Finally, we ap…
We establish large deviation principles for the couple of the maximum likelihood estimators of dimensional and drift coefficients in the generalised squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We focus our attention to the most tractable situation where the dimensional parameter $a>2$ and the drift parameter $b<0$. In contrast to the previous literature, we state large deviation principles when both dimensional and drift coefficient are estimated simultaneously.
We construct a least squares estimator for the drift parameters of a fractional Ornstein Uhlenbeck process with periodic mean function and long range dependence. For this estimator we prove consistency and asymptotic normality. In contrast to the classical fractional Ornstein Uhlenbeck process without periodic mean function the rate of convergence is slower depending on the Hurst parameter $H$, namely $n^{1-H}$.
In this article, we study the problem of parameter estimation for a discrete Ornstein - Uhlenbeck model driven by Poisson fractional noise. Based on random walk approximation for the noise, we study least squares and maximum likelihood estimators. Thus, asymptotic behaviours of the estimator is carried out, and a simulation study is shown to illustrate our results.
Assuming that a threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate the parameters. Our theoretical basis is the celebrated ergodic theorem. To use this theorem we need to find the explicit form of the invariant measure. With the sampling time step arbitrarily fixed, we prove the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of our estimators as the sample size tends to infinity.
We consider the problem of asymptotically efficient estimation of drift parameters of the ergodic fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process under continuous observations when the Hurst parameter $H<1/2$ and the mean of its stationary distribution is not equal to zero. In this paper, we derive asymptotically efficient rates and variances of estimators of drift parameters and prove an asymptotic efficiency of a maximum likelihood estimator of drift parameters.
New results on functional prediction of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in an autoregressive Hilbert-valued and Banach-valued frameworks are derived. Specifically, consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator of the autocorrelation operator, and of the associated plug-in predictor is obtained in both frameworks.
We consider the problem of parameter estimation for the partially observed linear stochastic differential equation. We assume that the unobserved Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process depends on some unknown parameter and estimate the unobserved process and the unknown parameter simultaneously. We construct the two-step MLE-process for the estimator of the parameter and describe its large sample asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality. Using the Kalman-Bucy filtering equations we construct recurrent estimators of the state and the parameter.
Statistical testing is classically used as an exploratory tool to search for association between a phenotype and many possible explanatory variables. This approach often leads to multiple testing under dependence. We assume a hierarchical structure between tests via an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process on a tree. The process correlation structure is used for smoothing the p-values. We design a penalized estimation of the mean of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for p-value computation. The performances of the algorithm are assessed via simulations. Its ability to discover new associations is demonstrat…
We consider the goodness of fit testing problem for linear stochastic differential equation (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process). The basic hypothesis is supposed to be composite with two-dimensional unknown parameter. We study two goodness of fit tests of Cramer-von Mises type based on empirical distribution function and on local time estimator of the invariant density. It is shown that the limit distributions of the underlying statistics under hypothesis do not depend on the unknown parameter.
Regression curves for studying trait relationships are developed herein. The adaptive evolution model is considered an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck system whose parameters are estimated by a novel engagement of generalized least-squares and optimization. Our algorithm is implemented to ecological data.
We construct a generalization of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes on the cone of covariance matrices endowed with the Log-Euclidean and the Affine-Invariant metrics. Our development exploits the Riemannian geometric structure of symmetric positive definite matrices viewed as a differential manifold. We then provide Bayesian inference for discretely observed diffusion processes of covariance matrices based on an MCMC algorithm built with the help of a novel diffusion bridge sampler accounting for the geometric structure. Our proposed algorithm is illustrated with a real data financial applicati…
