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arXiv 1407.1871physics.soc-phphysics.data-an
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城市道路交通和拥挤的可预测性

Predictability of road traffic and congestion in urban areas

Jingyuan Wang, Yu Mao, Jing Li, Chao Li, Zhang Xiong, Wen-Xu Wang

摘要:

缓解城市道路交通拥堵对城市发展、减少能源消耗和空气污染至关重要,这取决于我们能否预见与驾驶员集体行为有关的道路使用和交通状况,这就提出了一个重要问题:城市地区的道路交通可预测程度如何?在这里,我们依靠安装在出租车上的GPS定位设备对日常车辆移动的精确记录,来揭示城市交通模式的潜在日常可预测性。使用从道路上的拥堵程度映射到一个时间序列的符号和测量其熵,我们发现一个相对较高的日常交通状况的可预测性,尽管没有任何先验知识的司机的起源和目的地和相当不同的出行模式之间的工作日和周末。此外,我们发现一个违反直觉的依赖性的可预测性的旅行速度:与中间平均旅行速度的路段是最难预测的。我们还探讨了恢复交通状况的一个不可访问的部分,从其相邻的部分有限的可观测性的可能性。尽管驾驶员行为的异质性以及其起点和目的地的可变性,但高度可预测的交通模式使得能够开发准确的预测模型,以最终设计出缓解城市道路拥堵的实用策略。

英文摘要:

Mitigating traffic congestion on urban roads, with paramount importance in urban development and reduction of energy consumption and air pollution, depends on our ability to foresee road usage and traffic conditions pertaining to the collective behavior of drivers, raising a significant question: to what degree is road traffic predictable in urban areas? Here we rely on the precise records of daily vehicle mobility based on GPS positioning device installed in taxis to uncover the potential daily predictability of urban traffic patterns. Using the mapping from the degree of congestion on roads into a time series of symbols and measuring its entropy, we find a relatively high daily predictability of traffic conditions despite the absence of any a priori knowledge of drivers' origins and destinations and quite different travel patterns between weekdays and weekends. Moreover, we find a counterintuitive dependence of the predictability on travel speed: the road segment associated with intermediate average travel speed is most difficult to be predicted. We also explore the possibility of recovering the traffic condition of an inaccessible segment from its adjacent segments with respect to limited observability. The highly predictable traffic patterns in spite of the heterogeneity of drivers' behaviors and the variability of their origins and destinations enables development of accurate predictive models for eventually devising practical strategies to mitigate urban road congestion.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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