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arXiv 1402.1909stat.ME
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回归不连续设计的贝叶斯非参数假设检验方法

A Bayesian Nonparametric Hypothesis Testing Approach for Regression Discontinuity Designs

George Karabatsos, Stephen G. Walker

摘要:

非连续回归设计是非随机研究中常用的因果推断方法。这是因为它可用于在温和条件下识别和估计因果效应。具体而言,对于每例受试者,研发设计根据分配变量的观察值是否超过固定和已知的临界值分配治疗或非治疗。在本文中,我们提出了一个贝叶斯非参数回归建模方法的RD设计,它利用了当地的随机化功能。在这种方法中,分配变量被视为协变量,标量值混杂变量被视为因变量(可能是多变量混杂评分)。然后,在模型的局部随机化受试者的后验分布上,通过治疗结局和非治疗结局的两组统计学比较,在该随机群内进行因果效应的推断。我们通过对一个真实的教育数据集的分析,说明贝叶斯非参数方法,调查基本技能和教学能力之间的因果关系。

英文摘要:

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the RD design assigns a treatment or non-treatment, depending on whether or not an observed value of an assignment variable exceeds a fixed and known cutoff value. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric regression modeling approach to RD designs, which exploits a local randomization feature. In this approach, the assignment variable is treated as a covariate, and a scalar-valued confounding variable is treated as a dependent variable (which may be a multivariate confounder score). Then, over the model's posterior distribution of locally-randomized subjects that cluster around the cutoff of the assignment variable, inference for causal effects are made within this random cluster, via two-group statistical comparisons of treatment outcomes and non-treatment outcomes. We illustrate the Bayesian nonparametric approach through the analysis of a real educational data set, to investigate the causal link between basic skills and teaching ability.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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