We propose a new adaptive hypothesis test for inequality (e.g., monotonicity, convexity) and equality (e.g., parametric, semiparametric) restrictions on a structural function in a nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) model. Our test statistic is based on a modified leave-one-out sample analog of a quadratic distance between the restricted and unrestricted sieve two-stage least squares estimators. We provide computationally simple, data-driven choices of sieve tuning parameters and Bonferroni adjusted chi-squared critical values. Our test adapts to the unknown smoothness of alternative functions in the presence of unknown degree of endogeneity and unknown strength of the instruments. It attains the adaptive minimax rate of testing in $L^{2}$. That is, the sum of the supremum of type I error over the composite null and the supremum of type II error over nonparametric alternative models cannot be minimized by any other tests for NPIV models of unknown regularities. Confidence sets in $L^{2}$ are obtained by inverting the adaptive test. Simulations confirm that, across different strength of instruments and sample sizes, our adaptive test controls size and its finite-sample power greatly exceeds existing non-adaptive tests for monotonicity and parametric restrictions in NPIV models. Empirical applications to test for shape restrictions of differentiated products demand and of Engel curves are presented.
A common challenge in nonparametric inference is its high computational complexity when data volume is large. In this paper, we develop computationally efficient nonparametric testing by employing a random projection strategy. In the specific kernel ridge regression setup, a simple distance-based test statistic is proposed. Notably, we derive the minimum number of random projections that is sufficient for achieving testing optimality in terms of the minimax rate. An adaptive testing procedure is further established without prior knowledge of regularity. One technical contribution is to establi…
Hypothesis tests are a crucial statistical tool for data mining and are the workhorse of scientific research in many fields. Here we study differentially private tests of independence between a categorical and a continuous variable. We take as our starting point traditional nonparametric tests, which require no distributional assumption (e.g., normality) about the data distribution. We present private analogues of the Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney, and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, as well as the parametric one-sample t-test. These tests use novel test statistics developed specifically for the pr…
In the context of data that lie on the simplex, we investigate use of empirical and exponential empirical likelihood, and Hotelling and James statistics, to test the null hypothesis of equal population means based on two independent samples. We perform an extensive numerical study using data simulated from various distributions on the simplex. The results, taken together with practical considerations regarding implementation, support the use of bootstrap-calibrated James statistic.
We describe and examine a test for a general class of shape constraints, such as constraints on the signs of derivatives, U-(S-)shape, symmetry, quasi-convexity, log-convexity, $r$-convexity, among others, in a nonparametric framework using partial sums empirical processes. We show that, after a suitable transformation, its asymptotic distribution is a functional of the standard Brownian motion, so that critical values are available. However, due to the possible poor approximation of the asymptotic critical values to the finite sample ones, we also describe a valid bootstrap algorithm.
We develop a group of robust, nonparametric hypothesis tests which detect differences between the covariance operators of several populations of functional data. These tests, called FKWC tests, are based on functional data depth ranks. These tests work well even when the data is heavy tailed, which is shown both in simulation and theoretically. These tests offer several other benefits, they have a simple distribution under the null hypothesis, they are computationally cheap and they possess transformation invariance properties. We show that under general alternative hypotheses these tests are …
Consider a Poisson point process with unknown support boundary curve $g$, which forms a prototype of an irregular statistical model. We address the problem of estimating non-linear functionals of the form $\int Φ(g(x))\,dx$. Following a nonparametric maximum-likelihood approach, we construct an estimator which is UMVU over Hölder balls and achieves the (local) minimax rate of convergence. These results hold under weak assumptions on $Φ$ which are satisfied for $Φ(u)=|u|^p$, $p\ge 1$. As an application, we consider the problem of estimating the $L^p$-norm and derive the minimax separation rates…
University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
We propose a new algorithmic framework for sequential hypothesis testing with i.i.d. data, which includes A/B testing, nonparametric two-sample testing, and independence testing as special cases. It is novel in several ways: (a) it takes linear time and constant space to compute on the fly, (b) it has the same power guarantee as a non-sequential version of the test with the same computational constraints up to a small factor, and (c) it accesses only as many samples as are required - its stopping time adapts to the unknown difficulty of the problem. All our test statistics are constructed to b…
We propose a flexible and identifiable version of the two-groups model, motivated by hierarchical Bayes considerations, that features an empirical null and a semiparametric mixture model for the non-null cases. We use a computationally efficient predictive recursion marginal likelihood procedure to estimate the model parameters, even the nonparametric mixing distribution. This leads to a nonparametric empirical Bayes testing procedure, which we call PRtest, based on thresholding the estimated local false discovery rates. Simulations and real-data examples demonstrate that, compared to existing…
This paper is about two related decision theoretic problems, nonparametric two-sample testing and independence testing. There is a belief that two recently proposed solutions, based on kernels and distances between pairs of points, behave well in high-dimensional settings. We identify different sources of misconception that give rise to the above belief. Specifically, we differentiate the hardness of estimation of test statistics from the hardness of testing whether these statistics are zero or not, and explicitly discuss a notion of "fair" alternative hypotheses for these problems as dimensio…
In this paper, we are concerned with nonparametric estimation of the multivariate regression function in the presence of right censored data. More precisely, we propose a statistic that is shown to be asymptotically normally distributed under the additive assumption, and that could be used to test for additivity in the censored regression setting.
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Temple University（天普大学）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
Large-scale modern data often involves estimation and testing for high-dimensional unknown parameters. It is desirable to identify the sparse signals, ``the needles in the haystack'', with accuracy and false discovery control. However, the unprecedented complexity and heterogeneity in modern data structure require new machine learning tools to effectively exploit commonalities and to robustly adjust for both sparsity and heterogeneity. In addition, estimates for high-dimensional parameters often lack uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we propose a novel Spike-and-Nonparametric mixture …
A dimension reduction-based adaptive-to-model test is proposed for significance of a subset of covariates in the context of a nonparametric regression model. Unlike existing local smoothing significance tests, the new test behaves like a local smoothing test as if the number of covariates were just that under the null hypothesis and it can detect local alternatives distinct from the null at the rate that is only related to the number of covariates under the null hypothesis. Thus, the curse of dimensionality is largely alleviated when nonparametric estimation is inevitably required. In the case…
Consider a big data multiple testing task, where, due to storage and computational bottlenecks, one is given a very large collection of p-values by splitting into manageable chunks and distributing over thousands of computer nodes. This paper is concerned with the following question: How can we find the full data multiple testing solution by operating completely independently on individual machines in parallel, without any data exchange between nodes? This version of the problem tends naturally to arise in a wide range of data-intensive science and industry applications whose methodological so…
We consider nonparametric testing in a non-asymptotic framework. Our statistical guarantees are exact in the sense that Type I and II errors are controlled for any finite sample size. Meanwhile, one proposed test is shown to achieve minimax optimality in the asymptotic sense. An important consequence of this non-asymptotic theory is a new and practically useful formula for selecting the optimal smoothing parameter in nonparametric testing. The leading example in this paper is smoothing spline models under Gaussian errors. The results obtained therein can be further generalized to the kernel ri…
Data Science and AI Research（数据科学与人工智能研究院）；AT&T Chief Data Office（美国电话电报公司首席数据办公室）；University of Minnesota Twin Cities（明尼苏达大学双城分校）
High-dimensional data, where the dimension of the feature space is much larger than sample size, arise in a number of statistical applications. In this context, we construct the generalized multivariate sign transformation, defined as a vector divided by its norm. For different choices of the norm function, the resulting transformed vector adapts to certain geometrical features of the data distribution. Building up on this idea, we obtain one-sample and two-sample testing procedures for mean vectors of high-dimensional data using these generalized sign vectors. These tests are based on U-stati…
We discuss nonparametric tests for parametric specifications of regression quantiles. The test is based on the comparison of parametric and nonparametric fits of these quantiles. The nonparametric fit is a Nadaraya-Watson quantile smoothing estimator. An asymptotic treatment of the test statistic requires the development of new mathematical arguments. An approach that makes only use of plugging in a Bahadur expansion of the nonparametric estimator is not satisfactory. It requires too strong conditions on the dimension and the choice of the bandwidth. Our alternative mathematical approach requi…
In a multiple testing context, we consider a semiparametric mixture model with two components where one component is known and corresponds to the distribution of $p$-values under the null hypothesis and the other component $f$ is nonparametric and stands for the distribution under the alternative hypothesis. Motivated by the issue of local false discovery rate estimation, we focus here on the estimation of the nonparametric unknown component $f$ in the mixture, relying on a preliminary estimator of the unknown proportion $θ$ of true null hypotheses. We propose and study the asymptotic properti…
We consider the problem of testing whether two finite-dimensional random dot product graphs have generating latent positions that are independently drawn from the same distribution, or distributions that are related via scaling or projection. We propose a test statistic that is a kernel-based function of the adjacency spectral embedding for each graph. We obtain a limiting distribution for our test statistic under the null and we show that our test procedure is consistent across a broad range of alternatives.
Given a nonparametric Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with two states, the question of constructing efficient multiple testing procedures is considered, treating one of the states as an unknown null hypothesis. A procedure is introduced, based on nonparametric empirical Bayes ideas, that controls the False Discovery Rate (FDR) at a user--specified level. Guarantees on power are also provided, in the form of a control of the true positive rate. One of the key steps in the construction requires supremum--norm convergence of preliminary estimators of the emission densities of the HMM. We provide the ex…
In this paper an autoregressive time series model with conditional heteroscedasticity is considered, where both conditional mean and conditional variance function are modeled nonparametrically. A test for the model assumption of independence of innovations from past time series values is suggested. The test is based on an weighted $L^2$-distance of empirical characteristic functions. The asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of independence is derived and consistency against fixed alternatives is shown. A smooth autoregressive residual bootstrap procedure is suggested and its perfo…
We provide necessary and sufficient conditions of uniform consistency of nonparametric sets of alternatives of chi-squared test for testing of hypothesis of homogeneity. The number of cells of chi-squared test increases with sample size growth. Nonparametric sets of alternatives can be defined both in terms of densities and distribution functions.
We consider the detection problem of a two-dimensional function from noisy observations of its integrals over lines. We study both rate and sharp asymptotics for the error probabilities in the minimax setup. By construction, the derived tests are non-adaptive. We also construct a minimax rate-optimal adaptive test of rather simple structure.
We consider the problem of comparing probability densities between two groups. A new probabilistic tensor product smoothing spline framework is developed to model the joint density of two variables. Under such a framework, the probability density comparison is equivalent to testing the presence/absence of interactions. We propose a penalized likelihood ratio test for such interaction testing and show that the test statistic is asymptotically chi-square distributed under the null hypothesis. Furthermore, we derive a sharp minimax testing rate based on the Bernstein width for nonparametric two-s…
In this paper we introduce the idea of partially sorting data to design nonparametric tests. This approach gives rise to tests that are sensitive to both the order and the underlying distribution of the data. We focus in particular on a test that uses the bubble sort algorithm to partially sort the data. We show that a function of the data, referred to as the empirical bubble sort curve, converges uniformly to a limiting curve. We define a goodness-of-fit test based on the distance between the empirical curve and its limit. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is a generalization …
In this paper we propose a new test for the hypothesis of a constant coefficient of variation in the common nonparametric regression model. The test is based on an estimate of the $L^2$-distance between the square of the regression function and variance function. We prove asymptotic normality of a standardized estimate of this distance under the null hypothesis and fixed alternatives and the finite sample properties of a corresponding bootstrap test are investigated by means of a simulation study. The results are applicable to stationary processes with the common mixing conditions and are used…
We propose a nonparametric procedure to test for changes in correlation matrices at an unknown point in time. The new test requires only mild assumptions on the serial dependence structure and has considerable power in finite samples. We derive the asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of no change as well as local power results and apply the test to stock returns.
Measures of local and global spatial association are key tools for exploratory spatial data analysis. Many such measures exist including Moran's $I$, Geary's $C$, and the Getis-Ord $G$ and $G^*$ statistics. A parametric approach to testing for significance relies on strong assumptions, which are often not met by real world data. Alternatively, the most popular nonparametric approach, the permutation test, imposes a large computational burden especially for massive graphical networks. Hence, we propose a computation-free approach to nonparametric permutation testing for local and global measure…
We investigate hypothesis testing in nonparametric additive models estimated using simplified smooth backfitting (Huang and Yu, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, \textbf{28(2)}, 386--400, 2019). Simplified smooth backfitting achieves oracle properties under regularity conditions and provides closed-form expressions of the estimators that are useful for deriving asymptotic properties. We develop a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) and a loss function (LF) based testing framework for inference. Under the null hypothesis, both the GLR and LF tests have asymptotically rescaled ch…
An important aspect of modeling spatially-referenced data is appropriately specifying the covariance function of the random field. A practitioner working with spatial data is presented a number of choices regarding the structure of the dependence between observations. One of these choices is determining whether or not an isotropic covariance function is appropriate. Isotropy implies that spatial dependence does not depend on the direction of the spatial separation between sampling locations. Misspecification of isotropy properties (directional dependence) can lead to misleading inferences, e.g…
Hypothesis testing and other statistical inference procedures are most efficient when a reliable low-dimensional parametric family can be specified. We propose a method that learns such a family when one exists but its form is not known a priori, by examining samples from related populations and fitting a low-dimensional exponential family that approximates all the samples as well as possible. We propose a computationally efficient spectral method that allows us to carry out hypothesis tests that are valid whether or not the fit is good, and recover asymptotically optimal power if it is. Our m…
Randomized response is one of the oldest and most well-known methods for analyzing confidential data. However, its utility for differentially private hypothesis testing is limited because it cannot achieve high privacy levels and low type I error rates simultaneously. In this article, we show how to overcome this issue with the subsample and aggregate technique. The result is a general-purpose method that can be used for both frequentist and Bayesian testing. {{We illustrate the performance of our proposal in three scenarios: goodness-of-fit testing for linear regression models, nonparametric …
We study statistical detection of grayscale objects in noisy images. The object of interest is of unknown shape and has an unknown intensity, that can be varying over the object and can be negative. No boundary shape constraints are imposed on the object, only a weak bulk condition for the object's interior is required. We propose an algorithm that can be used to detect grayscale objects of unknown shapes in the presence of nonparametric noise of unknown level. Our algorithm is based on a nonparametric multiple testing procedure. We establish the limit of applicability of our method via an exp…
We propose a test of independence of two multivariate random vectors, given a sample from the underlying population. Our approach, which we call MINT, is based on the estimation of mutual information, whose decomposition into joint and marginal entropies facilitates the use of recently-developed efficient entropy estimators derived from nearest neighbour distances. The proposed critical values, which may be obtained from simulation (in the case where one marginal is known) or resampling, guarantee that the test has nominal size, and we provide local power analyses, uniformly over classes of de…
Let X be a d dimensional vector of covariates and Y be the response variable. Under the nonparametric model Y = m(X) + σ(X) \in we develop an ANOVA-type test for the null hypothesis that a particular coordinate of X has no influence on the regression function. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic, using residuals based on Nadaraya-Watson type kernel estimator and d \leq 4, is established under the null hypothesis and local alternatives. Simulations suggest that under a sparse model, the applicability of the test extends to arbitrary d through sufficient dimension reduction. Using …
This paper describes a framework for flexible multiple hypothesis testing of autoregressive time series. The modeling approach is Bayesian, though a blend of frequentist and Bayesian reasoning is used to evaluate procedures. Nonparametric characterizations of both the null and alternative hypotheses will be shown to be the key robustification step necessary to ensure reasonable Type-I error performance. The methodology is applied to part of a large database containing up to 50 years of corporate performance statistics on 24,157 publicly traded American companies, where the primary goal of the …
The problem of curve registration appears in many different areas of applications ranging from neuroscience to road traffic modeling. In the present work, we propose a nonparametric testing framework in which we develop a generalized likelihood ratio test to perform curve registration. We first prove that, under the null hypothesis, the resulting test statistic is asymptotically distributed as a chi-squared random variable. This result, often referred to as Wilks' phenomenon, provides a natural threshold for the test of a prescribed asymptotic significance level and a natural measure of lack-o…
Appropriate preprocessing is a fundamental prerequisite for analyzing a noisy dataset. The purpose of this paper is to apply a nonparametric preprocessing method, called Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), to a variety of datasets which are subsequently analyzed by means of multiple statistical hypothesis tests. SSA is a nonparametric preprocessing method which has recently been utilized in the context of many life science problems. In the present work, SSA is compared with three other state-of-the-art preprocessing methods in terms of goodness of denoising and in terms of the statistical power …
For the problems of nonparametric hypothesis testing we introduce the notion of maxisets and maxispace. We point out the maxisets of $χ^2-$tests, Cramer-von Mises tests, tests generated $\mathbb{L}_2$- norms of kernel estimators and tests generated quadratic forms of estimators of Fourier coefficients. For these tests we show that, if sequence of alternatives having given rates of convergence to hypothesis is consistent, then each altehrnative can be broken down into the sum of two parts: a function belonging to maxiset and orthogonal function. Sequence of functions belonging to maxiset is con…
Texas Tech University（德克萨斯理工大学）；Indiana University–Purdue University Indianapolis（印第安纳大学-普渡大学印第安纳波利斯分校）；New Jersey Institute of Technology（新泽西理工学院）
Deep neural network is a state-of-art method in modern science and technology. Much statistical literature have been devoted to understanding its performance in nonparametric estimation, whereas the results are suboptimal due to a redundant logarithmic sacrifice. In this paper, we show that such log-factors are not necessary. We derive upper bounds for the $L^2$ minimax risk in nonparametric estimation. Sufficient conditions on network architectures are provided such that the upper bounds become optimal (without log-sacrifice). Our proof relies on an explicitly constructed network estimator ba…
Discontinuity in density functions is of economic importance and interest. For instance, in studies on regression discontinuity designs, discontinuity in the density of a running variable suggests violation of the no-manipulation assumption. In this paper we develop estimation and testing procedures on discontinuity in densities with positive support. Our approach is built on splitting the gamma kernel (Chen, 2000) into two parts at a given (dis)continuity point and constructing two truncated kernels. The jump-size magnitude of the density at the point can be estimated nonparametrically by two…
In this paper, we establish a uniform error rate of a Bahadur representation for local polynomial estimators of quantile regression functions. The error rate is uniform over a range of quantiles, a range of evaluation points in the regressors, and over a wide class of probabilities for observed random variables. Most of the existing results on Bahadur representations for local polynomial quantile regression estimators apply to the fixed data generating process. In the context of testing monotonicity where the null hypothesis is of a complex composite hypothesis, it is particularly relevant to …
We consider the problem of testing significance of predictors in multivariate nonparametric quantile regression. A stochastic process is proposed, which is based on a comparison of the responses with a nonparametric quantile regression estimate under the null hypothesis. It is demonstrated that under the null hypothesis this process converges weakly to a centered Gaussian process and the asymptotic properties of the test under fixed and local alternatives are also discussed. In particular we show, that - in contrast to the nonparametric approach based on estimation of $L^2$-distances - the new…
Rice University（莱斯大学）；Department of Economics（经济学系）
In this work we use Recurrent Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptrons to predict NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX stock prices from historical data. We experiment with different architectures and compare data normalization techniques. Then, we leverage those findings to question the efficient-market hypothesis through a formal statistical test.
