犯罪增长率动态中的标度律
Scaling laws in the dynamics of crime growth rate
摘要：
人口高度集中地区的犯罪数量日益增加，使城市成为暴力的主要来源之一。了解犯罪率的增长特征及其与城市规模的关系，已不仅仅是一个学术问题，而是当代社会的一个中心问题。在这里，我们的特点和分析在1980年至2009年期间在巴西城市谋杀案的定量方面。我们发现，一年，两年和三年的对数凶杀增长率的分布表现出相同的功能形式，不同的尺度，即规模不变的行为。我们还确定了这三个增长率的标准差和初始大小之间的渐近幂律衰减关系。此外，我们还讨论了与复杂组织的相似之处。
英文摘要：
The increasing number of crimes in areas with large concentrations of people have made cities one of the main sources of violence. Understanding characteristics of how crime rate expands and its relations with the cities size goes beyond an academic question, being a central issue for contemporary society. Here, we characterize and analyze quantitative aspects of murders in the period from 1980 to 2009 in Brazilian cities. We find that the distribution of the annual, biannual and triannual logarithmic homicide growth rates exhibit the same functional form for distinct scales, that is, a scale invariant behavior. We also identify asymptotic power-law decay relations between the standard deviations of these three growth rates and the initial size. Further, we discuss similarities with complex organizations.
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