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arXiv 1301.7634cond-mat.stat-mechphysics.geo-ph
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涨落定理与自然时间分析

Fluctuation theorem and natural time analysis

N. V. Sarlis, P. V. Varotsos, E. S. Skordas

摘要:

在采用固定长度的自然时间窗滑动通过时间序列时,得到了自然时间$χ$的方差$κ_1$($=< χ^2 > - < χ>^2$)的变异性$β$与事件相关性之间的显式相关关系。此外,我们还研究了涨落定理在变率$β$中的应用,涨落定理是远离平衡态系统的一般结果。例如,我们认为大地震是非平衡临界现象。我们发现,在1979年至2003年期间,在加利福尼亚州的四个(五个)主震之前的$β$最小值低于从波动定理推导出的相对阈值,从而预示着即将发生的重大事件。

英文摘要:

Upon employing a natural time window of fixed length sliding through a time series, an explicit interrelation between the variability $β$ of the variance $κ_1$($=< χ^2 > - < χ>^2$) of natural time $χ$ and events' correlations is obtained. In addition, we investigate the application of the fluctuation theorem, which is a general result for systems far from equilibrium, to the variability $β$. We consider for example, major earthquakes that are nonequilibrium critical phenomena. We find that four (out of five) mainshocks in California during 1979-2003 were preceded by $β$ minima lower than the relative thresholds deduced from the fluctuation theorem, thus signalling an impending major event.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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