一场足球比赛的过去如何影响它的未来？
How does the past of a soccer match influence its future?
摘要：
足球比赛中的进球可以解释为一个随机过程。在对足球比赛的最简单描述中，我们假设每个队的进球率都是恒定的，这意味着简单的泊松和马尔可夫行为。在这里，提出了一个一般的框架，从这种行为的偏差识别。对于这种努力，必须制定一个先验估计的预期数量的目标，每支球队在一个特定的比赛。分析方案适用于大约40个赛季的德甲联赛。可以表征先前比赛过程对当前比赛行为的影响。这使人们能够识别有关足球比赛的有趣的一般特征，从而了解得分目标背后隐藏的复杂性。
英文摘要：
Scoring goals in a soccer match can be interpreted as a stochastic process. In the most simple description of a soccer match one assumes that scoring goals can be described by a constant goal rate for each team, implying simple Poissonian and Markovian behavior. Here a general framework for the identification of deviations from this behavior is presented. For this endeavor it is essential to formulate an a priori estimate of the expected number of goals per team in a specific match. The analysis scheme is applied to approximately 40 seasons of the German Bundesliga. It is possible to characterize the impact of the previous course of the match on the present match behavior. This allows one to identify interesting generic features about soccer matches and thus to learn about the hidden complexities behind scoring goals.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
