健身，机会和神话：对足球结果的客观看法
Fitness, chance, and myths: an objective view on soccer results
摘要：
我们分析的时间序列的足球比赛中使用的数据为德国足球联赛（德甲）的无模型的方式。我们认为，净胜球是一个更好的衡量一个团队的整体健康比积分的数量。结果表明，在一个季节的表的时间演化可以被解释为一个随机游走的基本常数漂移。整体体能的变化主要发生在暑假期间，而不是在一个赛季。适应度相关性在四分之一世纪的尺度上表现出长期衰减。对一些典型的足球神话进行了详细的分析。这表明，输了，但没有连胜存在。对于这种分析的想法，从多维NMR实验已被借用。此外，除了一般的主场优势，没有统计学相关的指标，球队特定的主场健身。基于这些见解的足球联赛的结果的统计特征的框架，并制定了一些一般后果的足球结果的预测。
英文摘要：
We analyze the time series of soccer matches in a model-free way using data for the German soccer league (Bundesliga). We argue that the goal difference is a better measure for the overall fitness of a team than the number of points. It is shown that the time evolution of the table during a season can be interpreted as a random walk with an underlying constant drift. Variations of the overall fitness mainly occur during the summer break but not during a season. The fitness correlation shows a long-time decay on the scale of a quarter century. Some typical soccer myths are analyzed in detail. It is shown that losing but no winning streaks exist. For this analysis ideas from multidimensional NMR experiments have been borrowed. Furthermore, beyond the general home advantage there is no statistically relevant indication of a team-specific home fitness. Based on these insights a framework for a statistical characterization of the results of a soccer league is introduced and some general consequences for the prediction of soccer results are formulated.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
