足球：进球是可预测的泊松过程吗？
Soccer: is scoring goals a predictable Poissonian process?
摘要：
足球比赛中的非科学事件是在严格的科学水平上分析的。该分析是基于最近推出的团队健身的概念（Eur。B 67，445，2009）并且需要使用有限尺寸标度。一个唯一定义的函数推导出定量预测的预期平均结果的足球比赛中的两支球队的健身。检查球队的临时适应性波动是否妨碍足球比赛的可预测性。一场比赛中的进球可以很好地近似为具有预定期望值的独立泊松过程。较小的相关性会导致抽签次数的增加。非泊松总体目标分布只是不同团队之间适应度分布的结果。足球比赛的可预测性的限制是量化的。我们的无模型分类的基本成分决定足球比赛的结果可以推广到不同类型的体育赛事。
英文摘要：
The non-scientific event of a soccer match is analysed on a strictly scientific level. The analysis is based on the recently introduced concept of a team fitness (Eur. Phys. J. B 67, 445, 2009) and requires the use of finite-size scaling. A uniquely defined function is derived which quantitatively predicts the expected average outcome of a soccer match in terms of the fitness of both teams. It is checked whether temporary fitness fluctuations of a team hamper the predictability of a soccer match. To a very good approximation scoring goals during a match can be characterized as independent Poissonian processes with pre-determined expectation values. Minor correlations give rise to an increase of the number of draws. The non-Poissonian overall goal distribution is just a consequence of the fitness distribution among different teams. The limits of predictability of soccer matches are quantified. Our model-free classification of the underlying ingredients determining the outcome of soccer matches can be generalized to different types of sports events.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
