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arXiv 1204.4307cs.AImath.PR
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基于Dempster-Shafer理论和Web地图的禽流感(H5N1)预警系统

Avian Influenza (H5N1) Warning System using Dempster-Shafer Theory and Web Mapping

Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam(文莱达鲁萨兰大学理学院)

Andino Maseleno, Md. Mahmud Hasan

摘要:

根据2011年15个国家向世界卫生组织(世卫组织)报告的人类确诊禽流感(H5 N1)病例累积数,印度尼西亚因禽流感死亡人数最多,有146人死亡。在本研究中,研究者构建了一个基于Web Mapping和Dempster-Shafer理论的禽流感预警系统。早期预警是通过确定的机构提供及时和有效的信息,使面临危险的个人能够采取行动避免或减少其风险,并为有效应对做好准备。本文以抑郁、鸡冠、肉垂、青面、肿面、眼窄、平衡障碍等五种症状为主要症状。研究地点位于南苏门答腊省楠榜省。研究人员之所以选择南苏门答腊省的楠榜省,是因为那里有大量的家禽。楠榜省位于东经103040'至105050',南纬6045'至3045'之间,北临南苏门答腊和明古鲁,东临巽他海峡,西临印度尼西亚海。我们的方法使用Dempster Shafer理论结合信念在某些假设条件下的不确定性和无知,并允许定量测量的信念和可信度在我们的识别结果。网络制图还用于在屏幕上显示地图,以可视化识别过程的结果。结果表明,禽流感预警系统成功地识别出禽流感的存在,并能以可视化的方式显示。

英文摘要:

Based on Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza (H5N1) Reported to World Health Organization (WHO) in the 2011 from 15 countries, Indonesia has the largest number death because Avian Influenza which 146 deaths. In this research, the researcher built a Web Mapping and Dempster-Shafer theory as early warning system of avian influenza. Early warning is the provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response. In this paper as example we use five symptoms as major symptoms which include depression, combs, wattle, bluish face region, swollen face region, narrowness of eyes, and balance disorders. Research location is in the Lampung Province, South Sumatera. The researcher reason to choose Lampung Province in South Sumatera on the basis that has a high poultry population. Geographically, Lampung province is located at 103040' to 105050' East Longitude and 6045' - 3045' South latitude, confined with: South Sumatera and Bengkulu on North Side, Sunda Strait on the Side, Java Sea on the East Side, Indonesia Ocean on the West Side. Our approach uses Dempster Shafer theory to combine beliefs in certain hypotheses under conditions of uncertainty and ignorance, and allows quantitative measurement of the belief and plausibility in our identification result. Web Mapping is also used for displaying maps on a screen to visualize the result of the identification process. The result reveal that avian influenza warning system has successfully identified the existence of avian influenza and the maps can be displayed as the visualization.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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