The importance of the ability of predict trends in social media has been growing rapidly in the past few years with the growing dominance of social media in our everyday's life. Whereas many works focus on the detection of anomalies in networks, there exist little theoretical work on the prediction of the likelihood of anomalous network pattern to globally spread and become "trends". In this work we present an analytic model the social diffusion dynamics of spreading network patterns. Our proposed method is based on information diffusion models, and is capable of predicting future trends based on the analysis of past social interactions between the community's members. We present an analytic lower bound for the probability that emerging trends would successful spread through the network. We demonstrate our model using two comprehensive social datasets - the "Friends and Family" experiment that was held in MIT for over a year, where the complete activity of 140 users was analyzed, and a financial dataset containing the complete activities of over 1.5 million members of the "eToro" social trading community.
An active line of research has studied the detection and representation of trends in social media content. There is still relatively little understanding, however, of methods to characterize the early adopters of these trends: who picks up on these trends at different points in time, and what is their role in the system? We develop a framework for analyzing the population of users who participate in trending topics over the course of these topics' lifecycles. Central to our analysis is the notion of a "status gradient", describing how users of different activity levels adopt a trend at differe…
The emergence of online social networks has greatly facilitated the diffusion of information and behaviors. While the two diffusion processes are often intertwined, "talking the talk" does not necessarily mean "walking the talk"--those who share information about an action may not actually participate in it. We do not know if the diffusion of information and behaviors are similar, or if social influence plays an equally important role in these processes. Integrating text mining, social network analyses, and survival analysis, this research examines the concurrent spread of information and beha…
Bots have been playing a crucial role in online platform ecosystems, as efficient and automatic tools to generate content and diffuse information to the social media human population. In this chapter, we will discuss the role of social bots in content spreading dynamics in social media. In particular, we will first investigate some differences between diffusion dynamics of content generated by bots, as opposed to humans, in the context of political communication, then study the characteristics of bots behind the diffusion dynamics of social media spam campaigns.
Trends in online social media always reflect the collective attention of a vast number of individuals across the network. For example, Internet slang words can be ubiquitous because of social memes and online contagions in an extremely short period. From Weibo, a Twitter-like service in China, we find that the adoption of popular Internet slang words experiences two peaks in its temporal evolution, in which the former is relatively much lower than the latter. This interesting phenomenon in fact provides a decent window to disclose essential factors that drive the massive diffusion underlying t…
Measuring and forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is a long-standing goal of big-data analytics. Despite its importance, there has been no conclusive scientific evidence so far that social media activity can capture the opinion of the general population. Here we develop a method to infer the opinion of Twitter users regarding the candidates of the 2016 US Presidential Election by using a combination of statistical physics of complex networks and machine learning based on hashtags co-occurrence to develop an in-domain training set approaching 1 million tweets. We investigate …
Dynamic models and statistical inference for the diffusion of information in social networks is an area which has witnessed remarkable progress in the last decade due to the proliferation of social networks. Modeling and inference of diffusion of information has applications in targeted advertising and marketing, forecasting elections, predicting investor sentiment and identifying epidemic outbreaks. This chapter discusses three important aspects related to information diffusion in social networks: (i) How does observation bias named friendship paradox (a graph theoretic consequence) and monop…
This research discusses multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) using Fuzzy-AHP methods of tourism. The fuzzy-AHP process will rank tourism trends based on data from social media. Social media is one of the channels with the largest source of data input in determining tourism development. The development uses social media interactions based on the facilities visited, including reviews, stories, likes, forums, blogs, and feedback. This experiment aims to prioritize facilities that are the trend of tourism. The priority ranking uses weight criteria and the ranking process. The highest rank is in t…
Ties between individuals on a social network can represent different dimensions of interactions, and the spreading of information and innovations on these networks could potentially be driven by some dimensions more than by others. In this paper we investigate this issue by studying the diffusion of microfinance within rural India villages and accounting for the whole multilayer structure of the underlying social networks. We define a new measure of node centrality, diffusion versatility, and show that this is a better predictor of microfinance participation rate than previously introduced mea…
In recent years, various kinds of distributed resource sharing setups have been proposed by taking social relationships into consideration. These dissimilar resource sharing setups are tagged as Social Cloud. These setups have appeared in various distributed computing forms such as community cloud, grid, volunteer computing and network services. Such setups are discrete in nature, and hence, do not conceptualize the totality of the Social Cloud concept. In fact, it is difficult to conceptualize Social Cloud without a general framework. There are three main objectives of this work. First, to pr…
This paper deals with the statistical signal pro- cessing over graphs for tracking infection diffusion in social networks. Infection (or Information) diffusion is modeled using the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. Mean field approximation is employed to approximate the discrete valued infected degree distribution evolution by a deterministic ordinary differential equation for obtaining a generative model for the infection diffusion. The infected degree distribution is shown to follow polynomial dynamics and is estimated using an exact non- linear Bayesian filter. We compute poster…
As online social networks continue to be commonly used for the dissemination of information to the public, understanding the phenomena that govern information diffusion is crucial for many security and safety-related applications, such as maximizing information spread and misinformation containment during crises and natural disasters. In this study, we hypothesize that the features that contribute to information diffusion in online social networks are significantly influenced by the type of event being studied. We classify Twitter events as either informative or trending and then explore the n…
Prevention and intervention work done within community settings often face unique analytic challenges for rigorous evaluations. Since community prevention work (often geographically isolated) cannot be controlled in the same way other prevention programs and these communities have an increased level of interpersonal interactions, rigorous evaluations are needed. Even when the `gold standard' randomized control trials are implemented within community intervention work, the threats to internal validity can be called into question given informal social spread of information in closed network sett…
Hashtags play a cardinal role in the classification of topics over social media. A sudden burst on the usage of certain hashtags, representing specific topics, give rise to trending topics. Trending topics can be immensely useful as it can spark a discussion on a particular subject. However, it can also be used to suppress an ongoing pivotal matter. This paper discusses how a significant economic crisis was covered by triggering a current trending topic. A case study on politics in India has been studied over the past two months. The analysis shows how the issue on inflation was attacked by th…
In this big data era, more and more social activities are digitized thereby becoming traceable, and thus the studies of social networks attract increasing attention from academia. It is widely believed that social networks play important role in the process of information diffusion. However, the opposite question, i.e., how does information diffusion process rebuild social networks, has been largely ignored. In this paper, we propose a new framework for understanding this reversing effect. Specifically, we first introduce a novel information diffusion model on social networks, by considering t…
Statistical inference using social sensors is an area that has witnessed remarkable progress and is relevant in applications including localizing events for targeted advertising, marketing, localization of natural disasters and predicting sentiment of investors in financial markets. This chapter presents a tutorial description of four important aspects of sensing-based information diffusion in social networks from a communications/signal processing perspective. First, diffusion models for information exchange in large scale social networks together with social sensing via social media networks…
Tourism is an exciting thing to be visited by people in the world. Search for attractive and popular places can be done through social media. Data from social media or websites can be used as a reference to find current travel trends and get information about reviews, stories, likes, forums, blogs, and feedback from a place. However, if the search is done manually one by one, it takes a long time, and it becomes interesting to do research. So, searching based on current trends will be easier and faster. For this reason, this study uses a computer base to search by ranking tourist facilities fr…
Obtaining an accurate picture of the current state of the economy is particularly important to central banks and finance ministries, and of epidemics to health ministries. There is increasing interest in the use of search engine data to provide such 'nowcasts' of social and economic indicators. However, people may search for a phrase because they independently want the information, or they may search simply because many others are searching for it. We consider the effect of the motivation for searching on the accuracy of forecasts made using search engine data of contemporaneous social and eco…
The habilitation thesis presents two main directions: 1. Exploiting data from social networks (Twitter, Facebook, Flickr, etc.) - creating resources for text and image processing (classification, retrieval, credibility, diversification, etc.); 2. Creating applications with new technologies : augmented reality (eLearning, games, smart museums, gastronomy, etc.), virtual reality (eLearning and games), speech processing with Amazon Alexa (eLearning, entertainment, IoT, etc.). The work was validated with good results in evaluation campaigns like CLEF (Question Answering, Image CLEF, LifeCLEF, etc.…
The Japanese TV program 'Drama A' is a drama broadcast from October to December 2016. The audience rating was sluggish, but this drama marked a high audience rating in 2016. Since it was popular from the middle, and it was speculated that there was a part related to social media in the popularity, we considered existing research methods as a case study. In this paper, we used a mathematical model of the hit phenomenon to examine the impact of audience assessment from social media from a sociophysical perspective. We got the same consideration as the audience rating per minute of video research…
Social media platforms are popular venues for fashion brand marketing and advertising. With the introduction of native advertising, users don't have to endure banner ads that hold very little saliency and are unattractive. Using images and subtle text overlays, even in a world of ever-depreciating attention span, brands can retain their audience and have a capacious creative potential. While an assortment of marketing strategies are conjectured, the subtle distinctions between various types of marketing strategies remain under-explored. This paper presents a qualitative analysis on the influen…
The ways in which an innovation (e.g., new behaviour, idea, technology, product) diffuses among people can determine its success or failure. In this paper, we address the problem of diffusion of innovations over multiplex social networks where the neighbours of a person belong to one or multiple networks (or layers) such as friends, families, or colleagues. To this end, we generalise one of the basic game-theoretic diffusion models, called networked coordination game, for multiplex networks. We present analytical results for this extended model and validate them through a simulation study, fin…
Influencing (and being influenced by) others through social networks is fundamental to all human societies. Whether this happens through the diffusion of rumors, opinions, or viruses, identifying the diffusion source (i.e., the person that initiated it) is a problem that has attracted much research interest. Nevertheless, existing literature has ignored the possibility that the source might strategically modify the network structure (by rewiring links or introducing fake nodes) to escape detection. Here, without restricting our analysis to any particular diffusion scenario, we close this gap b…
Prior social contagion models consider the spread of either one contagion at a time on interdependent networks or multiple contagions on single layer networks or under assumptions of competition. We propose a new threshold model for the diffusion of multiple contagions. Individuals are placed on a multiplex network with a periodic lattice and a random-regular-graph layer. On these population structures, we study the interface between two key aspects of the diffusion process: the level of synergy between two contagions, and the rate at which individuals become dormant after adoption. Dormancy i…
University of Westminster（威斯敏斯特大学）；Informatics Institute of Technology（信息技术学院）
Recommendations Systems have been identified to be one of the integral elements of driving sales in e-commerce sites. The utilization of opinion mining data extracted from trends has been attempted to improve the recommendations that can be provided by baseline methods in this research when user-click data is lacking or is difficult to be collected due to privacy concerns. Utilizing social trends to influence the recommendations generated for a set of unique items has been explored with the use of a suggested scoring mechanism. Embracing concepts from decentralized networks that are expected t…
We study a mathematical model of social diffusion on a symmetric weighted network where individual nodes' states gradually assimilate to local social norms made by their neighbors' average states. Unlike physical diffusion, this process is not state conservational and thus the global state of the network (i.e., sum of node states) will drift. The asymptotic average node state will be the average of initial node states weighted by their strengths. Here we show that, while the global state is not conserved in this process, the inner product of strength and state vectors is conserved instead, and…
Understanding the factors that impact the popularity dynamics of social media can drive the design of effective information services, besides providing valuable insights to content generators and online advertisers. Taking YouTube as case study, we analyze how video popularity evolves since upload, extracting popularity trends that characterize groups of videos. We also analyze the referrers that lead users to videos, correlating them, features of the video and early popularity measures with the popularity trend and total observed popularity the video will experience. Our findings provide fund…
One of the most significant current challenges in large-scale online social networks, is to establish a concise and coherent method able to collect and summarize data. Sampling the content of an Online Social Network (OSN) plays an important role as a knowledge discovery tool. It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the fact that current sampling methods must cope with a lack of a full sampling frame i.e., there is an imposed condition determined by a limited data access. In addition, another key aspect to take into account is the huge amount of data generated by users of social networ…
Information spreading in online social communities has attracted tremendous attention due to its utmost practical values in applications. Despite that several individual-level diffusion data have been investigated, we still lack the detailed understanding of the spreading pattern of information. Here, by comparing information flows and social links in a blog community, we find that the diffusion processes are induced by three different spreading mechanisms: social spreading, self-promotion and broadcast. Although numerous previous studies have employed epidemic spreading models to simulate inf…
We measure trends in the diffusion of misinformation on Facebook and Twitter between January 2015 and July 2018. We focus on stories from 570 sites that have been identified as producers of false stories. Interactions with these sites on both Facebook and Twitter rose steadily through the end of 2016. Interactions then fell sharply on Facebook while they continued to rise on Twitter, with the ratio of Facebook engagements to Twitter shares falling by approximately 60 percent. We see no similar pattern for other news, business, or culture sites, where interactions have been relatively stable ov…
Social Media have been extensively used for commercial and political communication, besides their initial scope of providing an easy-to-use outlet to produce and consume user-generated content. Besides being a popular medium, Social Media have definitely changed the way we express ourselves or where we look for emerging news and commentary, especially during troubled times. In this paper, we examine a corpus assembled from the Twitter accounts of politicians in the United States and annotated with respect to their audience and the sentiment they convey with each post. Our purpose is to examine…
Competitive information diffusion on large-scale social networks reveals fundamental characteristics of rumor contagions and has profound influence on public opinion formation. There has been growing interest in exploring dynamical mechanisms of the competing evolutions recently. Nevertheless, the impacts of population homophily, which determines powerful collective human behaviors, remains unclear. In this paper, we incorporate homophily effects into a modified competitive ignorant-spreader-ignorant (SIS) rumor diffusion model with generalized population preference. Using microscopic Markov c…
The question that how cultural variation emerges has drawn lots of interest in sociological inquiry. Sociologists predominantly study such variation through the lens of social contagion, which mostly attributes cultural variation to the underlying structural segregation, making it epiphenomenal to the pre-existing segregated structure. On the other hand, arguing culture doesn't spread like a virus, an alternative called associative diffusion was proposed, in which cultural transmission occurs not at the preference of practices, but at the association between practices. The associative diffusio…
Social media expose millions of users every day to information campaigns --- some emerging organically from grassroots activity, others sustained by advertising or other coordinated efforts. These campaigns contribute to the shaping of collective opinions. While most information campaigns are benign, some may be deployed for nefarious purposes. It is therefore important to be able to detect whether a meme is being artificially promoted at the very moment it becomes wildly popular. This problem has important social implications and poses numerous technical challenges. As a first step, here we f…
Stance detection on social media is an emerging opinion mining paradigm for various social and political applications in which sentiment analysis may be sub-optimal. There has been a growing research interest for developing effective methods for stance detection methods varying among multiple communities including natural language processing, web science, and social computing. This paper surveys the work on stance detection within those communities and situates its usage within current opinion mining techniques in social media. It presents an exhaustive review of stance detection techniques on…
In order to capture the effects of social ties in knowledge diffusion, this paper examines the publication network that emerges from the collaboration of researchers, using citation information as means to estimate knowledge flow. For this purpose, we analyzed the papers published in the PLOS ONE journal finding strong evidence to support that the closer two authors are in the co-authorship network, the larger the probability that knowledge flow will occur between them. Moreover, we also found that when it comes to knowledge diffusion, strong co-authorship proximity is more determinant than ge…
Researchers have attempted to model information diffusion and topic trends and lifecycle on online social networks. They have investigated the role of content, social connections and communities, familiarity and behavioral similarity in this context. The current article presents a survey of representative models that perform topic analysis, capture information diffusion, and explore the properties of social connections in the context of online social networks. The article concludes with a set of outlines of open problems and possible directions of future research interest. This article is inte…
