经济和社会数据的即时预报：搜索引擎数据何时以及为什么失败，使用Google流感趋势的说明
Nowcasting economic and social data: when and why search engine data fails, an illustration using Google Flu Trends
摘要：
对中央银行和财政部而言，准确了解当前经济状况尤为重要，对卫生部而言，准确了解流行病状况尤为重要。人们对利用搜索引擎数据提供社会和经济指标的“即时预报”越来越感兴趣。然而，人们可能会搜索一个短语，因为他们独立地想要的信息，或者他们可能会搜索，因为许多其他人都在搜索it.We考虑使用搜索引擎数据的准确性预测的动机的影响同期的社会和经济指标。我们使用四个事件来说明预测准确性的影响，其中Google Flu Trends数据准确预测了实际流感病例，其中四个搜索数据大大高估了预测。使用一个标准的统计方法，巴斯扩散模型，我们表明，独立的搜索信息的动机是强得多的情况下，准确的预测比不准确的。社会影响，即人们可能会搜索一个短语，因为其他人也是如此，在不准确的情况下比准确的情况下要强大得多。因此，当社会对搜索决策的影响很大时，搜索引擎数据可能是同期指标的不可靠预测因素。
英文摘要：
Obtaining an accurate picture of the current state of the economy is particularly important to central banks and finance ministries, and of epidemics to health ministries. There is increasing interest in the use of search engine data to provide such 'nowcasts' of social and economic indicators. However, people may search for a phrase because they independently want the information, or they may search simply because many others are searching for it. We consider the effect of the motivation for searching on the accuracy of forecasts made using search engine data of contemporaneous social and economic indicators. We illustrate the implications for forecasting accuracy using four episodes in which Google Flu Trends data gave accurate predictions of actual flu cases, and four in which the search data over-predicted considerably. Using a standard statistical methodology, the Bass diffusion model, we show that the independent search for information motive was much stronger in the cases of accurate prediction than in the inaccurate ones. Social influence, the fact that people may search for a phrase simply because many others are, was much stronger in the inaccurate compared to the accurate cases. Search engine data may therefore be an unreliable predictor of contemporaneous indicators when social influence on the decision to search is strong.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
