arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 1111.2664cs.LGcs.GT
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众包预测问题的协作机制

A Collaborative Mechanism for Crowdsourcing Prediction Problems

University of California at Berkeley(加州大学伯克利分校)

Jacob Abernethy, Rafael M. Frongillo

摘要:

机器学习竞赛,如Netflix Prize,作为一种“众包”预测任务的方法,已经证明是相当成功的。但这些竞争也有一些弱点,特别是在它们为参与者创造的激励结构方面。我们提出了一种新的方法,称为众包学习机制,参与者合作“学习”一个给定的预测任务的假设。这种方法在很大程度上借鉴了预测市场的概念,即交易员对未来事件的可能性进行押注。在我们的框架中,该机制继续发布当前的假设,参与者可以通过对更新下注来修改此假设。关键的激励属性是,参与者将根据其更新在发布的测试集上提高性能的程度获得一定的收益。

英文摘要:

Machine Learning competitions such as the Netflix Prize have proven reasonably successful as a method of "crowdsourcing" prediction tasks. But these competitions have a number of weaknesses, particularly in the incentive structure they create for the participants. We propose a new approach, called a Crowdsourced Learning Mechanism, in which participants collaboratively "learn" a hypothesis for a given prediction task. The approach draws heavily from the concept of a prediction market, where traders bet on the likelihood of a future event. In our framework, the mechanism continues to publish the current hypothesis, and participants can modify this hypothesis by wagering on an update. The critical incentive property is that a participant will profit an amount that scales according to how much her update improves performance on a released test set.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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