Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled words, trade recall for precision and active learning. We evaluate our methods on four noun-phrase chunking and named entity recognition sequence labeling tasks, and on dependency parsing for 14 languages.
Many sequential decision-making systems leverage data collected using prior policies to propose a new policy. For critical applications, it is important that high-confidence guarantees on the new policy's behavior are provided before deployment, to ensure that the policy will behave as desired. Prior works have studied high-confidence off-policy estimation of the expected return, however, high-confidence off-policy estimation of the variance of returns can be equally critical for high-risk applications. In this paper, we tackle the previously open problem of estimating and bounding, with high …
In classification applications, we often want probabilistic predictions to reflect confidence or uncertainty. Dropout, a commonly used training technique, has recently been linked to Bayesian inference, yielding an efficient way to quantify uncertainty in neural network models. However, as previously demonstrated, confidence estimates computed with a naive implementation of dropout can be poorly calibrated, particularly when using convolutional networks. In this paper, through the lens of ensemble learning, we associate calibration error with the correlation between the models sampled with dro…
The Effects of Data Augmentation on Confidence Estimation for LLMs
School of Software Technology, Zhejiang University（浙江大学软件技术学院）；Hangzhou High-Tech Zone (Binjiang) Institute of Blockchain and Data Security（杭州高新技术区（滨江）区块链与数据安全研究院）；NetEase Fuxi AI Lab（网易伏羲人工智能实验室）
We propose a novel semi-supervised learning (SSL) method that adopts selective training with pseudo labels. In our method, we generate hard pseudo-labels and also estimate their confidence, which represents how likely each pseudo-label is to be correct. Then, we explicitly select which pseudo-labeled data should be used to update the model. Specifically, assuming that loss on incorrectly pseudo-labeled data sensitively increase against data augmentation, we select the data corresponding to relatively small loss after applying data augmentation. The confidence is used not only for screening can…
Politecnico di Milano（米兰理工大学）；Facebook AI Research（脸书人工智能研究院）
We study finite-armed stochastic bandits where the rewards of each arm might be correlated to those of other arms. We introduce a novel phased algorithm that exploits the given structure to build confidence sets over the parameters of the true bandit problem and rapidly discard all sub-optimal arms. In particular, unlike standard bandit algorithms with no structure, we show that the number of times a suboptimal arm is selected may actually be reduced thanks to the information collected by pulling other arms. Furthermore, we show that, in some structures, the regret of an anytime extension of o…
The Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；NEC Laboratories America, Inc. (NEC Labs)（NEC美国实验室（NEC Labs））
This work aims to assess how well a model performs under distribution shifts without using labels. While recent methods study prediction confidence, this work reports prediction dispersity is another informative cue. Confidence reflects whether the individual prediction is certain; dispersity indicates how the overall predictions are distributed across all categories. Our key insight is that a well-performing model should give predictions with high confidence and high dispersity. That is, we need to consider both properties so as to make more accurate estimates. To this end, we use the nuclear…
Poznan University of Technology（波兹南理工大学）；Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院）；MNM Bioscience（MNM生物科学公司）
Machine learning applications, especially in the fields of me\-di\-cine and social sciences, are slowly being subjected to increasing scrutiny. Similarly to sample size planning performed in clinical and social studies, lawmakers and funding agencies may expect statistical uncertainty estimations in machine learning applications that impact society. In this paper, we present an easy-to-use python package and web application for estimating prediction confidence intervals. The package offers eight different procedures to determine and justify the sample size and confidence of predictions from ho…
We study the problem of identifying the best action among a set of possible options when the value of each action is given by a mapping from a number of noisy micro-observables in the so-called fixed confidence setting. Our main motivation is the application to the minimax game search, which has been a major topic of interest in artificial intelligence. In this paper we introduce an abstract setting to clearly describe the essential properties of the problem. While previous work only considered a two-move game tree search problem, our abstract setting can be applied to the general minimax game…
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Algorithm configuration methods optimize the performance of a parameterized heuristic algorithm on a given distribution of problem instances. Recent work introduced an algorithm configuration procedure ("Structured Procrastination") that provably achieves near optimal performance with high probability and with nearly minimal runtime in the worst case. It also offers an $\textit{anytime}$ property: it keeps tightening its optimality guarantees the longer it is run. Unfortunately, Structured Procrastination is not $\textit{adaptive}$ to characteristics of the parameterized algorithm: it treats e…
Confidence Interval Construction and Conditional Variance Estimation with Dense ReLU Networks
University of California, Los Angeles（加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校）；University of California, Santa Cruz（加利福尼亚大学圣克鲁兹分校）；Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；Washington University in St. Louis（圣路易斯华盛顿大学）
University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）；DeepMind（深度思维）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
We study high-confidence behavior-agnostic off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, where the goal is to estimate a confidence interval on a target policy's value, given only access to a static experience dataset collected by unknown behavior policies. Starting from a function space embedding of the linear program formulation of the $Q$-function, we obtain an optimization problem with generalized estimating equation constraints. By applying the generalized empirical likelihood method to the resulting Lagrangian, we propose CoinDICE, a novel and efficient algorithm for computing confide…
Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown that uncertainty-aware deep Dirichlet neural networks provide an improved separation between the confidence of correct and incorrect predictions in the true class probability (TCP) metric. Second, as the true class is unknown at test time, a new criterion is proposed for learning the true class probability by matching prediction confidence scores while takin…
As end-to-end automatic speech recognition (ASR) models reach promising performance, various downstream tasks rely on good confidence estimators for these systems. Recent research has shown that model-based confidence estimators have a significant advantage over using the output softmax probabilities. If the input data to the speech recogniser is from mismatched acoustic and linguistic conditions, the ASR performance and the corresponding confidence estimators may exhibit severe degradation. Since confidence models are often trained on the same in-domain data as the ASR, generalising to out-of…
Revisiting Confidence Estimation: Towards Reliable Failure Prediction
Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Hong Kong Institute of Science and Innovation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院香港创新研究院人工智能与机器人中心）；Institute of Automation of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）；School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学人工智能学院）
Reliably quantifying the confidence of deep neural classifiers is a challenging yet fundamental requirement for deploying such models in safety-critical applications. In this paper, we introduce a novel target criterion for model confidence, namely the true class probability (TCP). We show that TCP offers better properties for confidence estimation than standard maximum class probability (MCP). Since the true class is by essence unknown at test time, we propose to learn TCP criterion from data with an auxiliary model, introducing a specific learning scheme adapted to this context. We evaluate …
This paper presents a class of new fast non-trainable entropy-based confidence estimation methods for automatic speech recognition. We show how per-frame entropy values can be normalized and aggregated to obtain a confidence measure per unit and per word for Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) and Recurrent Neural Network Transducer (RNN-T) models. Proposed methods have similar computational complexity to the traditional method based on the maximum per-frame probability, but they are more adjustable, have a wider effective threshold range, and better push apart the confidence distribut…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）；Toyoyta Technological Institute at Chicago（丰田工业大学芝加哥分校）
Machine learning plays an increasingly significant role in many aspects of our lives (including medicine, transportation, security, justice and other domains), making the potential consequences of false predictions increasingly devastating. These consequences may be mitigated if we can automatically flag such false predictions and potentially assign them to alternative, more reliable mechanisms, that are possibly more costly and involve human attention. This suggests the task of detecting errors, which we tackle in this paper for the case of visual classification. To this end, we propose a nov…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）
Recently, there has been growth in providers of speech transcription services enabling others to leverage technology they would not normally be able to use. As a result, speech-enabled solutions have become commonplace. Their success critically relies on the quality, accuracy, and reliability of the underlying speech transcription systems. Those black box systems, however, offer limited means for quality control as only word sequences are typically available. This paper examines this limited resource scenario for confidence estimation, a measure commonly used to assess transcription reliabilit…
For various speech-related tasks, confidence scores from a speech recogniser are a useful measure to assess the quality of transcriptions. In traditional hidden Markov model-based automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems, confidence scores can be reliably obtained from word posteriors in decoding lattices. However, for an ASR system with an auto-regressive decoder, such as an attention-based sequence-to-sequence model, computing word posteriors is difficult. An obvious alternative is to use the decoder softmax probability as the model confidence. In this paper, we first examine how some comm…
Autonomous driving (AD) and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) increasingly utilize deep neural networks (DNNs) for improved perception or planning. Nevertheless, DNNs are quite brittle when the data distribution during inference deviates from the data distribution during training. This represents a challenge when deploying in partly unknown environments like in the case of ADAS. At the same time, the standard confidence of DNNs remains high even if the classification reliability decreases. This is problematic since following motion control algorithms consider the apparently confident p…
ALTA Institute（ALTA研究所）；Cambridge University（剑桥大学）
The standard approach to mitigate errors made by an automatic speech recognition system is to use confidence scores associated with each predicted word. In the simplest case, these scores are word posterior probabilities whilst more complex schemes utilise bi-directional recurrent neural network (BiRNN) models. A number of upstream and downstream applications, however, rely on confidence scores assigned not only to 1-best hypotheses but to all words found in confusion networks or lattices. These include but are not limited to speaker adaptation, semi-supervised training and information retriev…
Yandex（扬德克斯）；Higher School of Economics（高等经济学院）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）
Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems. While most research in the area has focused on un-structured prediction tasks, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for structured prediction. Thus, this work aims to investigate uncertainty estimation for autoregressive structured prediction tasks within a single unified and interpretable probabilistic ensemble-based framework. We consider: uncertainty estimation for sequence data at the token-level and complete sequence-level; interpretations for, and applications of, vari…
The standard approach to assess reliability of automatic speech transcriptions is through the use of confidence scores. If accurate, these scores provide a flexible mechanism to flag transcription errors for upstream and downstream applications. One challenging type of errors that recognisers make are deletions. These errors are not accounted for by the standard confidence estimation schemes and are hard to rectify in the upstream and downstream processing. High deletion rates are prominent in limited resource and highly mismatched training/testing conditions studied under IARPA Babel and Mate…
Item-item collaborative filtering (CF) models are a well known and studied family of recommender systems, however current literature does not provide any theoretical explanation of the conditions under which item-based recommendations will succeed or fail. We investigate the existence of an ideal item-based CF method able to make perfect recommendations. This CF model is formalized as an eigenvalue problem, where estimated ratings are equivalent to the true (unknown) ratings multiplied by a user-specific eigenvalue of the similarity matrix. Preliminary experiments show that the magnitude of th…
Data-efficient domain adaptation with only a few labelled data is desired for many robotic applications, e.g., in grasping detection, the inference skill learned from a grasping dataset is not universal enough to directly apply on various other daily/industrial applications. This paper presents an approach enabling the easy domain adaptation through a novel grasping detection network with confidence-driven semi-supervised learning, where these two components deeply interact with each other. The proposed grasping detection network specially provides a prediction uncertainty estimation mechanism…
We consider the problem of estimating the mean of a distribution supported by the $k$-dimensional probability simplex in the setting where an $\varepsilon$ fraction of observations are subject to adversarial corruption. A simple particular example is the problem of estimating the distribution of a discrete random variable. Assuming that the discrete variable takes $k$ values, the unknown parameter $\boldsymbol θ$ is a $k$-dimensional vector belonging to the probability simplex. We first describe various settings of contamination and discuss the relation between these settings. We then establis…
In this paper, we propose new sequential estimation methods based on inclusion principle. The main idea is to reformulate the estimation problems as constructing sequential random intervals and use confidence sequences to control the associated coverage probabilities. In contrast to existing asymptotic sequential methods, our estimation procedures rigorously guarantee the pre-specified levels of confidence.
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Indian Institute of Science（印度科学学院）
We study high-dimensional sparse estimation under three natural constraints: communication constraints, local privacy constraints, and linear measurements (compressive sensing). Without sparsity assumptions, it has been established that interactivity cannot improve the minimax rates of estimation under these information constraints. The question of whether interactivity helps with natural inference tasks has been a topic of active research. We settle this question in the affirmative for the prototypical problems of high-dimensional sparse mean estimation and compressive sensing, by demonstrati…
