Reliably quantifying the confidence of deep neural classifiers is a challenging yet fundamental requirement for deploying such models in safety-critical applications. In this paper, we introduce a novel target criterion for model confidence, namely the true class probability (TCP). We show that TCP offers better properties for confidence estimation than standard maximum class probability (MCP). Since the true class is by essence unknown at test time, we propose to learn TCP criterion from data with an auxiliary model, introducing a specific learning scheme adapted to this context. We evaluate our approach on the task of failure prediction and of self-training with pseudo-labels for domain adaptation, which both necessitate effective confidence estimates. Extensive experiments are conducted for validating the relevance of the proposed approach in each task. We study various network architectures and experiment with small and large datasets for image classification and semantic segmentation. In every tested benchmark, our approach outperforms strong baselines.
Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；Australian Centre for Robotic Vision（澳大利亚机器人视觉中心）；Data61, CSIRO（澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织数据61研究所）
We present a new approach for a single view, image-based object pose estimation. Specifically, the problem of culling false positives among several pose proposal estimates is addressed in this paper. Our proposed approach targets the problem of inaccurate confidence values predicted by CNNs which is used by many current methods to choose a final object pose prediction. We present a network called CullNet, solving this task. CullNet takes pairs of pose masks rendered from a 3D model and cropped regions in the original image as input. This is then used to calibrate the confidence scores of the p…
School of Computer Science, Fudan University（复旦大学计算机学院）；Singapore Management University（新加坡管理大学）
Estimating the travel time of a path is of great importance to smart urban mobility. Existing approaches are either based on estimating the time cost of each road segment which are not able to capture many cross-segment complex factors, or designed heuristically in a non-learning-based way which fail to utilize the existing abundant temporal labels of the data, i.e., the time stamp of each trajectory point. In this paper, we leverage on new development of deep neural networks and propose a novel auxiliary supervision model, namely DeepTravel, that can automatically and effectively extract diff…
Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown that uncertainty-aware deep Dirichlet neural networks provide an improved separation between the confidence of correct and incorrect predictions in the true class probability (TCP) metric. Second, as the true class is unknown at test time, a new criterion is proposed for learning the true class probability by matching prediction confidence scores while takin…
Revisiting Confidence Estimation: Towards Reliable Failure Prediction
Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Hong Kong Institute of Science and Innovation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院香港创新研究院人工智能与机器人中心）；Institute of Automation of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）；School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学人工智能学院）
Singapore University of Technology and Design（新加坡科技设计大学）；Adobe Research（Adobe研究院）
Confidence estimation, a task that aims to evaluate the trustworthiness of the model's prediction output during deployment, has received lots of research attention recently, due to its importance for the safe deployment of deep models. Previous works have outlined two important qualities that a reliable confidence estimation model should possess, i.e., the ability to perform well under label imbalance and the ability to handle various out-of-distribution data inputs. In this work, we propose a meta-learning framework that can simultaneously improve upon both qualities in a confidence estimatio…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）；Toyoyta Technological Institute at Chicago（丰田工业大学芝加哥分校）
Machine learning plays an increasingly significant role in many aspects of our lives (including medicine, transportation, security, justice and other domains), making the potential consequences of false predictions increasingly devastating. These consequences may be mitigated if we can automatically flag such false predictions and potentially assign them to alternative, more reliable mechanisms, that are possibly more costly and involve human attention. This suggests the task of detecting errors, which we tackle in this paper for the case of visual classification. To this end, we propose a nov…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；The Hospital for Sick Children（病童医院）；Vector Institute（Vector研究所）
Generalizability is the ultimate goal of Machine Learning (ML) image classifiers, for which noise and limited dataset size are among the major concerns. We tackle these challenges through utilizing the framework of deep Multitask Learning (dMTL) and incorporating image depth estimation as an auxiliary task. On a customized and depth-augmented derivation of the MNIST dataset, we show a) multitask loss functions are the most effective approach of implementing dMTL, b) limited dataset size primarily contributes to classification inaccuracy, and c) depth estimation is mostly impacted by noise. In …
Autonomous driving (AD) and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) increasingly utilize deep neural networks (DNNs) for improved perception or planning. Nevertheless, DNNs are quite brittle when the data distribution during inference deviates from the data distribution during training. This represents a challenge when deploying in partly unknown environments like in the case of ADAS. At the same time, the standard confidence of DNNs remains high even if the classification reliability decreases. This is problematic since following motion control algorithms consider the apparently confident p…
2D Key-point estimation is an important precursor to 3D pose estimation problems for human body and hands. In this work, we discuss the data, architecture, and training procedure necessary to deploy extremely efficient 2.5D hand pose estimation on embedded devices with highly constrained memory and compute envelope, such as AR/VR wearables. Our 2.5D hand pose estimation consists of 2D key-point estimation of joint positions on an egocentric image, captured by a depth sensor, and lifted to 2.5D using the corresponding depth values. Our contributions are two fold: (a) We discuss data labeling an…
University of Toronto Institute for Aerospace Studies（多伦多大学航空航天研究所）
Accurate and reliable 3D object detection is vital to safe autonomous driving. Despite recent developments, the performance gap between stereo-based methods and LiDAR-based methods is still considerable. Accurate depth estimation is crucial to the performance of stereo-based 3D object detection methods, particularly for those pixels associated with objects in the foreground. Moreover, stereo-based methods suffer from high variance in the depth estimation accuracy, which is often not considered in the object detection pipeline. To tackle these two issues, we propose CG-Stereo, a confidence-guid…
Estimating the confidence of disparity maps inferred by a stereo algorithm has become a very relevant task in the years, due to the increasing number of applications leveraging such cue. Although self-supervised learning has recently spread across many computer vision tasks, it has been barely considered in the field of confidence estimation. In this paper, we propose a flexible and lightweight solution enabling self-adapting confidence estimation agnostic to the stereo algorithm or network. Our approach relies on the minimum information available in any stereo setup (i.e., the input stereo pa…
Motion estimation across low-resolution frames and the reconstruction of high-resolution images are two coupled subproblems of multi-frame super-resolution. This paper introduces a new joint optimization approach for motion estimation and image reconstruction to address this interdependence. Our method is formulated via non-linear least squares optimization and combines two principles of robust super-resolution. First, to enhance the robustness of the joint estimation, we propose a confidence-aware energy minimization framework augmented with sparse regularization. Second, we develop a tailor-…
Bournemouth University（伯恩茅斯大学）；University of Chester（切斯特大学）
Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) need large amounts of data with ground truth annotation, which is a challenging problem that has limited the development and fast deployment of CNNs for many computer vision tasks. We propose a novel framework for depth estimation from monocular images with corresponding confidence in a self-supervised manner. A fully differential patch-based cost function is proposed by using the Zero-Mean Normalized Cross Correlation (ZNCC) that takes multi-scale patches as a matching strategy. This approach greatly increases the accuracy and robustness of the depth learn…
State-of-the-art Deep Neural Networks can be easily fooled into providing incorrect high-confidence predictions for images with small amounts of adversarial noise. Does this expose a flaw with deep neural networks, or do we simply need a better way to estimate confidence? In this paper we consider the problem of accurately estimating predictive confidence. We formulate this problem as that of density modelling, and show how traditional methods such as softmax produce poor estimates. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure based on density modelling approaches. We test thes…
Camera pose estimation in large-scale environments is still an open question and, despite recent promising results, it may still fail in some situations. The research so far has focused on improving subcomponents of estimation pipelines, to achieve more accurate poses. However, there is no guarantee for the result to be correct, even though the correctness of pose estimation is critically important in several visual localization applications,such as in autonomous navigation. In this paper we bring to attention a novel research question, pose confidence estimation,where we aim at quantifying ho…
Visible-infrared person re-identification (VI-ReID) has been challenging due to the existence of large discrepancies between visible and infrared modalities. Most pioneering approaches reduce intra-class variations and inter-modality discrepancies by learning modality-shared and ID-related features. However, an explicit modality-shared cue, i.e., body keypoints, has not been fully exploited in VI-ReID. Additionally, existing feature learning paradigms imposed constraints on either global features or partitioned feature stripes, which neglect the prediction consistency of global and part featur…
Ewha W. University（梨花女子大学）；Yonsei University（延世大学）；Korea Aerospace University（韩国航空大学）；Korea University（高丽大学）
Self-supervised monocular depth estimation has become an appealing solution to the lack of ground truth labels, but its reconstruction loss often produces over-smoothed results across object boundaries and is incapable of handling occlusion explicitly. In this paper, we propose a new approach to leverage pseudo ground truth depth maps of stereo images generated from self-supervised stereo matching methods. The confidence map of the pseudo ground truth depth map is estimated to mitigate performance degeneration by inaccurate pseudo depth maps. To cope with the prediction error of the confidence…
Detecting acoustic shadows in ultrasound images is important in many clinical and engineering applications. Real-time feedback of acoustic shadows can guide sonographers to a standardized diagnostic viewing plane with minimal artifacts and can provide additional information for other automatic image analysis algorithms. However, automatically detecting shadow regions using learning-based algorithms is challenging because pixel-wise ground truth annotation of acoustic shadows is subjective and time consuming. In this paper we propose a weakly supervised method for automatic confidence estimatio…
Deep learning has played a major role in the interpretation of dermoscopic images for detecting skin defects and abnormalities. However, current deep learning solutions for dermatological lesion analysis are typically limited in providing probabilistic predictions which highlights the importance of concerning uncertainties. This concept of uncertainty can provide a confidence level for each feature which prevents overconfident predictions with poor generalization on unseen data. In this paper, we propose an overall framework that jointly considers dermatological classification and uncertainty …
Robust Partial 3D Point Cloud Registration via Confidence Estimation under Global Context
Engineering Research Center for Metallurgical Automation（冶金自动化工程研究中心）；Measurement Technology Ministry of Education, Wuhan University of Science（测量技术教育部武汉科技大学）；School of Information Management（信息管理学院）；Institute of Big Data（大数据研究院）；Digital Economy, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan, 430205, China（数字经济，湖北经济学院，武汉，430205，中国）
We propose a new approach for the problem of relative depth estimation from a single image. Instead of directly regressing over depth scores, we formulate the problem as estimation of a probability distribution over depth and aim to learn the parameters of the distributions which maximize the likelihood of the given data. To train our model, we propose a new ranking loss, Distributional Loss, which tries to increase the probability of farther pixel's depth being greater than the closer pixel's depth. Our proposed approach allows our model to output confidence in its estimation in the form of s…
The University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）
Fully convolutional neural networks (FCNs), and in particular U-Nets, have achieved state-of-the-art results in semantic segmentation for numerous medical imaging applications. Moreover, batch normalization and Dice loss have been used successfully to stabilize and accelerate training. However, these networks are poorly calibrated i.e. they tend to produce overconfident predictions both in correct and erroneous classifications, making them unreliable and hard to interpret. In this paper, we study predictive uncertainty estimation in FCNs for medical image segmentation. We make the following co…
