Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems. While most research in the area has focused on un-structured prediction tasks, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for structured prediction. Thus, this work aims to investigate uncertainty estimation for autoregressive structured prediction tasks within a single unified and interpretable probabilistic ensemble-based framework. We consider: uncertainty estimation for sequence data at the token-level and complete sequence-level; interpretations for, and applications of, various measures of uncertainty; and discuss both the theoretical and practical challenges associated with obtaining them. This work also provides baselines for token-level and sequence-level error detection, and sequence-level out-of-domain input detection on the WMT'14 English-French and WMT'17 English-German translation and LibriSpeech speech recognition datasets.
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Peking University（北京大学）；Microsoft Research Asia（微软亚洲研究院）
Autoregressive sequence models achieve state-of-the-art performance in domains like machine translation. However, due to the autoregressive factorization nature, these models suffer from heavy latency during inference. Recently, non-autoregressive sequence models were proposed to reduce the inference time. However, these models assume that the decoding process of each token is conditionally independent of others. Such a generation process sometimes makes the output sentence inconsistent, and thus the learned non-autoregressive models could only achieve inferior accuracy compared to their autor…
While considerable advances have been made in estimating high-dimensional structured models from independent data using Lasso-type models, limited progress has been made for settings when the samples are dependent. We consider estimating structured VAR (vector auto-regressive models), where the structure can be captured by any suitable norm, e.g., Lasso, group Lasso, order weighted Lasso, sparse group Lasso, etc. In VAR setting with correlated noise, although there is strong dependence over time and covariates, we establish bounds on the non-asymptotic estimation error of structured VAR parame…
New York University（纽约大学）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；CIFAR（加拿大高等研究院）
Despite its wide use, recent studies have revealed unexpected and undesirable properties of neural autoregressive sequence models trained with maximum likelihood, such as an unreasonably high affinity to short sequences after training and to infinitely long sequences at decoding time. We propose to study these phenomena by investigating how the modes, or local maxima, of a distribution are maintained throughout the full learning chain of the ground-truth, empirical, learned and decoding-induced distributions, via the newly proposed mode recovery cost. We design a tractable testbed where we bui…
Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Munich Center for Machine Learning（慕尼黑机器学习中心）
Current graph neural networks (GNNs) that tackle node classification on graphs tend to only focus on nodewise scores and are solely evaluated by nodewise metrics. This limits uncertainty estimation on graphs since nodewise marginals do not fully characterize the joint distribution given the graph structure. In this work, we propose novel edgewise metrics, namely the edgewise expected calibration error (ECE) and the agree/disagree ECEs, which provide criteria for uncertainty estimation on graphs beyond the nodewise setting. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed edgewise metrics can comp…
Institute of Neurology, UCL（伦敦大学学院神经病学研究所）；School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Sciences, Kings College London（伦敦国王学院生物医学工程与成像科学学院）
Deep generative models are rapidly gaining traction in medical imaging. Nonetheless, most generative architectures struggle to capture the underlying probability distributions of volumetric data, exhibit convergence problems, and offer no robust indices of model uncertainty. By comparison, the autoregressive generative model PixelCNN can be extended to volumetric data with relative ease, it readily attempts to learn the true underlying probability distribution and it still admits a Bayesian reformulation that provides a principled framework for reasoning about model uncertainty. Our contributi…
Montréal Institute for Learning Algorithms (MILA)（蒙特利尔学习算法研究所）；Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）
We demonstrate a conditional autoregressive pipeline for efficient music recomposition, based on methods presented in van den Oord et al.(2017). Recomposition (Casal & Casey, 2010) focuses on reworking existing musical pieces, adhering to structure at a high level while also re-imagining other aspects of the work. This can involve reuse of pre-existing themes or parts of the original piece, while also requiring the flexibility to generate new content at different levels of granularity. Applying the aforementioned modeling pipeline to recomposition, we show diverse and structured generation con…
In this work, we propose the marginal structured SVM (MSSVM) for structured prediction with hidden variables. MSSVM properly accounts for the uncertainty of hidden variables, and can significantly outperform the previously proposed latent structured SVM (LSSVM; Yu & Joachims (2009)) and other state-of-art methods, especially when that uncertainty is large. Our method also results in a smoother objective function, making gradient-based optimization of MSSVMs converge significantly faster than for LSSVMs. We also show that our method consistently outperforms hidden conditional random fields (HCR…
In classification applications, we often want probabilistic predictions to reflect confidence or uncertainty. Dropout, a commonly used training technique, has recently been linked to Bayesian inference, yielding an efficient way to quantify uncertainty in neural network models. However, as previously demonstrated, confidence estimates computed with a naive implementation of dropout can be poorly calibrated, particularly when using convolutional networks. In this paper, through the lens of ensemble learning, we associate calibration error with the correlation between the models sampled with dro…
