The Second Wave of the Global Crisis? A Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis of Commodity Price Series
Askar Akaev, Alexei Fomin, Andrey Korotayev
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12 pages, 9 figures. This research has been supported by the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Project "Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of the World Dynamics")
This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was published in December 2010 (abs/1012.4118) and forecasted the possibility of the "burst of the gold bubble" in April - June 2011. Our recent analysis suggests the possibility of one more substantial fluctuation before the final collapse in July 2011. On the other hand, in early 2011 we detected a number of other commodity bubbles and forecasted the start of their collapse in May - June 2011. We demonstrate that this collapse has actually begun, which in conjunction with the forthcoming burst of the gold bubble suggests that the World System is entering a bifurcation zone bearing rather high risks of the second wave of the global financial-economic crisis. Indeed, on the one hand, it is obvious that such a collapse may lead to huge losses or even bankruptcies of many of the major participants of exchange games and their dependent firms and banks. Therefore, the immediate market reaction is likely to be entirely negative. Negative impact on the market could well be amplified by numerous publications in the media and business press, drawing analogies with the events of the early 1980s and earlier similar events, as well as by losses of shareholders of bankrupt companies. On the other hand, investments in gold also lead to the diversion of funds from stock market investments and to the reduction in the production of goods and services. If at the time of the collapse some promising areas of investment appear in the developed and / or developing countries, the investment can move to those markets, which, on the contrary, could contribute to the production of new goods and services and accelerate the way out of the crisis. It is also obvious that the decline of the oil (and other energy/mineral resources) prices may contribute to acceleration of world economic growth rates and world economic recovery.
Statistical properties of the aftershocks of stock market crashes revisited: Analysis based on the 1987 crash, financial-crisis-2008 and COVID-19 pandemic
Random walker in a temporally deforming higher-order potential forces observed in financial crisis
市场价格波动的基本特性被最近开发的随机游走模型很好地描述在一个时间变形的二次势力，其中心是由过去的价格轨迹的移动平均[Physica A 370，pp 91 -97，2006]。通过对泡沫、崩盘等异常事件的高频金融时间序列的分析，证实了市场中存在非线性势能。我们通过应用信息准则证明了它的存在性的统计意义。这种新的时间序列分析有望广泛应用于随机现象中的非平稳征兆的检测。
