The delta method is a popular and elementary tool for deriving limiting distributions of transformed statistics, while applications of asymptotic distributions do not allow one to obtain desirable accuracy of approximation for tail probabilities. The large and moderate deviation theory can achieve this goal. Motivated by the delta method in weak convergence, a general delta method in large deviations is proposed. The new method can be widely applied to driving the moderate deviations of estimators and is illustrated by examples including the Wilcoxon statistic, the Kaplan--Meier estimator, the empirical quantile processes and the empirical copula function. We also improve the existing moderate deviations results for $M$-estimators and $L$-statistics by the new method. Some applications of moderate deviations to statistical hypothesis testing are provided.
In this paper we prove large and moderate deviations principles for the recursive kernel estimator of a probability density function and its partial derivatives. Unlike the density estimator, the derivatives estimators exhibit a quadratic behavior not only for the moderate deviations scale but also for the large deviations one. We provide results both for the pointwise and the uniform deviations.
In this paper, we consider moderate deviations for Good's coverage estimator. The moderate deviation principle and the self-normalized moderate deviation principle for Good's coverage estimator are established. The results are also applied to the hypothesis testing problem and the confidence interval for the coverage.
In this paper, we prove large deviations principle for the Nadaraya-Watson estimator and for the semi-recursive kernel estimator of the regression in the multidimensional case. Under suitable conditions, we show that the rate function is a good rate function. We thus generalize the results already obtained in the unidimensional case for the Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Moreover, we give a moderate deviations principle for these two estimators. It turns out that the rate function obtained in the moderate deviations principle for the semi-recursive estimator is larger than the one obtained for the…
We establish a Cramér-type moderate deviation result for self-normalized sums of weakly dependent random variables, where the moment requirement is much weaker than the non-self-normalized counterpart. The range of the moderate deviation is shown to depend on the moment condition and the degree of dependence of the underlying processes. We consider two types of self-normalization: the big-block-small-block scheme and the interlacing or equal-block scheme. Simulation study shows that the latter can have a better finite-sample performance. Our result is applied to multiple testing and constructi…
In this paper we prove large and moderate deviations principles for the recursive kernel estimators of a probability density function defined by the stochastic approximation algorithm introduced by Mokkadem et al. [2009. The stochastic approximation method for the estimation of a probability density. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 139, 2459-2478]. We show that the estimator constructed using the stepsize which minimize the variance of the class of the recursive estimators defined in Mokkadem et al. (2009) gives the same pointwise LDP and MDP as the Rosenblatt kernel estimator. We provide results…
In this paper we prove large deviations principles for the averaged stochastic approximation method for the estimation of a regression function introduced by A. Mokkadem et al. [Revisiting Révész's stochastic approximation method for the estimation of a regression function, ALEA Lat. Amm. J. Probab. Math. Stat. 6 (2009), 63-114]. We show that the averaged stochastic approximation algorithm constructed using the weight sequence which minimize the asymptotic variance gives the same pointwise LDP as the Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator. Moreover, we give a moderate deviations principle for these …
We establish a moderate deviation principle for the maximum likelihood estimator of the four parameters of a geometrically ergodic Heston process. We also obtain moderate deviations for the maximum likelihood estimator of the couple of dimensional and drift parameters of a generalized squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We restrict ourselves to the most tractable case where the dimensional parameter satisfies $a>2$ and the drift coefficient is such that $b<0$. In contrast to the previous literature, parameters are estimated simultaneously.
Let $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ be a supercritical Galton-Watson process. The Lotka-Nagaev estimator $Z_{n+1}/Z_n$ is a common estimator for the offspring mean.In this paper, we establish some Cramér moderate deviation results for the Lotka-Nagaev estimator via a martingale method. Applications to construction of confidence intervals are also given.
Bitseki and Delmas (2021) have studied recently the central limit theorem for kernel estimator of invariant density in bifurcating Markov chains models. We complete their work by proving a moderate deviation principle for this estimator. Unlike the work of Bitseki and Gorgui (2021), it is interesting to see that the distinction of the two regimes disappears and that we are able to get moderate deviation principle for large values of the ergodic rate. It is also interesting and surprising to see that for moderate deviation principle, the ergodic rate begins to have an impact on the choice of th…
Our purpose is to prove central limit theorem for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain under the condition of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain in Cesàro sense. Furthermore, we obtain a corresponding moderate deviation theorem for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chain by Gärtner-Ellis theorem and exponential equivalent method.
We prove two Large deviations principles (LDP) in the zone of moderate deviation probabilities. First we establish LDP for the conditional distributions of moderate deviations of empirical bootstrap measures given empirical probability measures. Second we establish LDP for the joint distributions of empirical measure and bootstrap empirical measures. Using these LDPs, similar LDPs for statistical differentiable functionals can be established. The LDPs for moderate deviations of empirical quantile processes and empirical bootstrap copula function are provided as illustration of these results.
For the zone of moderate deviation probabilities the local asymptotic minimax lower bound of asymptotic efficiency of estimators is established. The estimation parameter is multidimensional. The lower bound admits the interpretation as the lower bound of asymptotic efficiency in confidence estimation.
We show that for local alternatives to uniformity which are determined by a sequence of square integrable densities the moderate deviation (MD) theorem for the corresponding Neyman-Pearson statistic does not hold in the full range for all unbounded densities. We give a sufficient condition under which MD theorem holds. The proof is based on Mogulskii's inequality.
We study the Cramér type moderate deviation for partial sums of random fields by applying the conjugate method. The results are applicable to the partial sums of linear random fields with short or long memory and to nonparametric regression with random field errors.
We prove that moderate deviations for empirical measures for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains hold under the assumption of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains in Cesàro sense.
In this paper we derive the moderate deviation principle for stationary sequences of bounded random variables under martingale-type conditions. Applications to functions of $ϕ$-mixing sequences, contracting Markov chains, expanding maps of the interval, and symmetric random walks on the circle are given.
A moderate deviation principle for functionals, with at most quadratic growth, of moving average processes is established. The main assumptions on the moving average process are a Logarithmic Sobolev inequality for the driving random variables and the continuity, or weaker, of the spectral density of the moving average process. We also obtain the moderate deviations for the empirical spectral density, exhibiting an interesting new form of the rate function, i.e. with a correction term compared to the Gaussian rate functionnal.
Cramér type moderate deviation theorems quantify the accuracy of the relative error of the normal approximation and provide theoretical justifications for many commonly used methods in statistics. In this paper, we develop a new randomized concentration inequality and establish a Cramér type moderate deviation theorem for general self-normalized processes which include many well-known Studentized nonlinear statistics. In particular, a sharp moderate deviation theorem under optimal moment conditions is established for Studentized $U$-statistics.
We consider a stable but nearly unstable autoregressive process of any order. The bridge between stability and instability is expressed by a time-varying companion matrix $A_{n}$ with spectral radius $ρ(A_{n}) < 1$ satisfying $ρ(A_{n}) \rightarrow 1$. In that framework, we establish a moderate deviation principle for the empirical covariance only relying on the elements of $A_{n}$ through $1-ρ(A_{n})$ and, as a by-product, we establish a moderate deviation principle for the OLS estimator when $Γ$, the renormalized asymptotic variance of the process, is invertible. Finally, when $Γ$ is singular…
Let {(X_i,Y_i)}_{i=1}^n be a sequence of independent bivariate random vectors. In this paper, we establish a refined Cramér type moderate deviation theorem for the general self-normalized sum \sum_{i=1}^n X_i/(\sum_{i=1}^n Y_i^2)^{1/2}, which unifies and extends the classical Cramér (1938) theorem and the self-normalized Cramér type moderate deviation theorems by Jing, Shao and Wang (2003) as well as the further refined version by Wang (2011). The advantage of our result is evidenced through successful applications to weakly dependent random variables and self-normalized winsorized mean. Speci…
Ewens-Pitman model has been successfully applied to various fields including Bayesian statistics. There are four important estimators $K_{n},M_{l,n}$,$K_{m}^{(n)},M_{l,m}^{(n)}$. In particular, $M_{1,n}, M_{1,m}^{(n)}$ are related to discovery probability. Their asymptotic behavior, such as large deviation principle, has already been discussed in [4],[1] and [2]. Moderate deviation principle is also discussed in [3] with some speed restriction. In this article, we will apply complex asymptotic analysis to show that this speed restriction is unnecessary.
In this paper, Cramér type moderate deviations for the maximum of the periodogram and its studentized version are derived. The results are then applied to a simultaneous testing problem in gene expression time series. It is shown that the level of the simultaneous tests is accurate provided that the number of genes $G$ and the sample size $n$ satisfy $G=\exp(o(n^{1/3}))$.
