The way diseases spread through schools, epidemics through countries, and viruses through the Internet is crucial in determining their risk. Although each of these threats has its own characteristics, its underlying network determines the spreading. To restrain the spreading, a widely used approach is the fragmentation of these networks through immunization, so that epidemics cannot spread. Here we develop an immunization approach based on optimizing the susceptible size, which outperforms the best known strategy based on immunizing the highest-betweenness links or nodes. We find that the network's vulnerability can be significantly reduced, demonstrating this on three different real networks: the global flight network, a school friendship network, and the internet. In all cases, we find that not only is the average infection probability significantly suppressed, but also for the most relevant case of a small and limited number of immunization units the infection probability can be reduced by up to 55%.
We investigate the spread of diseases, computer viruses or information on complex networks and also immunization strategies to prevent or control the spread. When an entire population cannot be immunized and the effect of immunization is not perfect, we need the targeted immunization with immunization rate. Under such a circumstance we calculate epidemic thresholds for the SIR and SIS epidemic models. It is shown that, in scale-free networks, the targeted immunization is effective only if the immunization rate is equal to one. We analyze here epidemic spreading on directed complex networks, bu…
Epidemic spreading on physical contact network will naturally introduce the human awareness information diffusion on virtual contact network, and the awareness diffusion will in turn depress the epidemic spreading, thus forming the competing spreading processes of epidemic and awareness in a multiplex networks. In this paper, we study the competing dynamics of epidemic and awareness, both of which follow the SIR process, in a two-layer networks based on microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations. We find that strong capacities of awareness diffusion and self-protection of indi…
Understanding the epidemic dynamics, and finding out efficient techniques to control it, is a challenging issue. A lot of research has been done on targeted immunization strategies, exploiting various global network topological properties. However, in practice, information about the global structure of the contact network may not be available. Therefore, immunization strategies that can deal with a limited knowledge of the network structure are required. In this paper, we propose targeted immunization strategies that require information only at the community level. Results of our investigation…
Bipartite networks are composed of two types of nodes and there are no links between nodes of the same type. Thus the study of epidemic spread and control on such networks is relevant to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). When entire populations of two types cannot be immunized and the effect of immunization is not perfect, we have to consider the targeted immunization with immunization rates. We derive the epidemic thresholds of SIR and SIS models with immunization and illustrate the results with STDs on heterosexual contact networks.
In this paper, we study the control of the traffic-driven epidemic spreading by immunization strategy. We consider the random, degree-based and betweeness-based immunization strategies, respectively. It is found that the betweeness-based immunization strategy can most effectively prevent the outbreak of traffic-driven epidemic. Besides, we find that the critical number of immune nodes above which epidemic dies out is increased with the enhancement of the spreading rate and the packet-generation rate.
The topic of finding effective strategy to halt virus in complex network is of current interest. We propose an immunization strategy for seasonal epidemics that occur periodically. Based on the local information of the infection status from the previous epidemic season, the selection of vaccinated nodes is optimized gradually. The evolution of vaccinated nodes during iterations demonstrates that the immunization tends to locate in both global hubs and local hubs. We analyze the epidemic prevalence by a heterogeneous mean-field method and present numerical simulations of our model. This immuniz…
A more connected world has brought major consequences such as facilitate the spread of diseases all over the world to quickly become epidemics, reason why researchers are concentrated in modeling the propagation of epidemics and outbreaks in Multilayer Networks. In this networks all nodes interact in different layers with different type of links. However, in many scenarios such as in the society, a Multiplex Network framework is not completely suitable since not all individuals participate in all layers. In this paper, we use a partially overlapped Multiplex Network where only a fraction of th…
Optimal strategies for epidemic containment are focused on dismantling the contact network through effective immunization with minimal costs. However, network fragmentation is seldom accessible in practice and may present extreme side effects. In this work, we investigate the epidemic containment immunizing population fractions far below the percolation threshold. We report that moderate and weakly supervised immunizations can lead to finite epidemic thresholds of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on scale-free networks by changing the nature of the transition from a specific-motif to…
In many real-world complex systems, individuals have many kind of interactions among them, suggesting that it is necessary to consider a layered structure framework to model systems such as social interactions. This structure can be captured by multilayer networks and can have major effects on the spreading of process that occurs over them, such as epidemics. In this Letter we study a targeted immunization strategy for epidemic spreading over a multilayer network. We apply the strategy in one of the layers and study its effect in all layers of the network disregarding degree-degree correlation…
In this paper, we propose two novel immunization strategies, i.e., combined immunization and duplex immunization, for SIS model in directed scale-free networks, and obtain the epidemic thresholds for them with linear and nonlinear infectivities. With the suggested two new strategies, the epidemic thresholds after immunization are greatly increased. For duplex immunization, we demonstrate that its performance is the best among all usual immunization schemes with respect to degree distribution. And for combined immunization scheme, we show that it is more effective than active immunization. Besi…
In this paper we quantify the total economic impact of an epidemic over a complex network using tools from random matrix theory. Incorporating the direct and indirect costs of infection, we calculate the disease cost in the large graph limit for an SIS (Susceptible - Infected - Susceptible) infection process. We also give an upper bound on this cost for arbitrary finite graphs and illustrate both calculated costs using extensive simulations on random and real-world networks. We extend these calculations by considering the total social cost of an epidemic, accounting for both the immunization a…
We propose a new method to immunize populations or computer networks against epidemics which is more efficient than any method considered before. The novelty of our method resides in the way of determining the immunization targets. First we identify those individuals or computers that contribute the least to the disease spreading measured through their contribution to the size of the largest connected cluster in the social or a computer network. The immunization process follows the list of identified individuals or computers in inverse order, immunizing first those which are most relevant for …
Adaptive Epidemic Dynamics on Hypergraphs with Group-Level Immunization and Rewiring
College of Artificial Intelligence, Southwest University（西南大学人工智能学院）；School of Systems Science/Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems, Beijing Normal University（北京师范大学系统科学学院/非平衡系统研究所）；Business College, Southwest University（西南大学商学院）；Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor（马里博尔大学自然科学与数学学院）；Community Healthcare Center Dr. Adolf Drolc Maribor（马里博尔阿道夫·德罗尔博士社区健康中心）；Department of Physics, Kyung Hee University（庆熙大学物理系）；University College, Korea University（高丽大学大学院）
Recently, hypergraphs have attracted considerable interest from the research community as a generalization of networks capable of encoding higher-order interactions, which commonly appear in both natural and social systems. Epidemic dynamics in hypergraphs has been studied by using the simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible ($s$-SIS) model; however, the efficient immunization strategy for epidemics in hypergraphs is not studied despite the importance of the topic in mathematical epidemiology. Here, we propose an immunization strategy that immunizes hyperedges with high simultaneous infect…
Infection can spread easily on networks with heterogeneous degree distribution. Here, we considered targeted immunization on such networks, wherein a fraction of individuals with the highest connectivity are immunized. To quantify the effect of this targeted immunization approach on population immunity, we proposed a method using the type reproduction number. Consequently, we derived a precise and simple formula that can yield the immunization threshold, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first such result presented in the literature.
Spreading processes represent a very efficient tool to investigate the structural properties of networks and the relative importance of their constituents, and have been widely used to this aim in static networks. Here we consider simple disease spreading processes on empirical time-varying networks of contacts between individuals, and compare the effect of several immunization strategies on these processes. An immunization strategy is defined as the choice of a set of nodes (individuals) who cannot catch nor transmit the disease. This choice is performed according to a certain ranking of the …
Epidemic-like spreading processes on top of multilayered interconnected complex networks reveal a rich phase diagram of intertwined competition effects. A recent study by the authors [Granell et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 128701 (2013)] presented the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the spreading of information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. The results in the case in which awareness implies total immunization to the disease, revealed the existence of a metacritical point at which the critica…
The problem of targeted network immunization can be defined as the one of finding a subset of nodes in a network to immunize or vaccinate in order to minimize a tradeoff between the cost of vaccination and the final (stationary) expected infection under a given epidemic model. Although computing the expected infection is a hard computational problem, simple and efficient mean-field approximations have been put forward in the literature in recent years. The optimization problem can be recast into a constrained one in which the constraints enforce local mean-field equations describing the averag…
Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large databases and efficient analysis algorithms, these processes can be better predicted and controlled. In this study, we use different characteristics of network organization to identify the influential spreaders in 17 empirical networks of diverse nature using 2 epidemic models. We find that a judicious choice of local measures, based either on the network's conn…
In the context of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, quarantine has been used to "flatten the curve" and slow the spread of the disease. In this paper, we show that this is not the only benefit of quarantine for the mitigation of an SIR epidemic spreading on a graph. Indeed, human contact networks exhibit a powerlaw structure, which means immunizing nodes at random is extremely ineffective at slowing the epidemic, while immunizing high-degree nodes can efficiently guarantee herd immunity. We theoretically prove that if quarantines are declared at the right moment, high-degree nodes are disproportio…
Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exists optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an incr…
Although community structure is ubiquitous in complex networks, few works exploit this topological property to control epidemics. In this work, devoted to networks with non-overlapping community structure (i.e, a node belongs to a single community), we propose and investigate three deterministic immunization strategies. In order to characterize the influence of a node, various pieces of information are used such as the number of communities that the node can reach in one hop, the nature of the links (intra community links, inter community links), the size of the communities, and the interconne…
Targeted immunization or attacks of large-scale networks has attracted significant attention by the scientific community. However, in real-world scenarios, knowledge and observations of the network may be limited thereby precluding a full assessment of the optimal nodes to immunize (or remove) in order to avoid epidemic spreading such as that of current COVID-19 epidemic. Here, we study a novel immunization strategy where only $n$ nodes are observed at a time and the most central between these $n$ nodes is immunized (or attacked). This process is continued repeatedly until $1-p$ fraction of no…
The interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading on complex networks has received increasing attention in recent years. However, the control of traffic-driven epidemic spreading remains to be a challenging problem. In this Brief Report, we propose a method to suppress traffic-driven epidemic outbreak by properly removing some edges in a network. We find that the epidemic threshold can be enhanced by the targeted cutting of links among large-degree nodes or edges with the largest algorithmic betweeness. In contrast, the epidemic threshold will be reduced by the random edge removal.…
Several recent studies have tackled the issue of optimal network immunization by providing efficient criteria to identify key nodes to be removed in order to break apart a network, thus preventing the occurrence of extensive epidemic outbreaks. Yet, although the efficiency of those criteria has been demonstrated also in empirical networks, preventive immunization is rarely applied to real-world scenarios, where the usual approach is the a posteriori attempt to contain epidemic outbreaks using quarantine measures. Here we compare the efficiency of prevention with that of quarantine in terms of …
In this study, an efficient method to immunize modular networks (i.e., networks with community structure) is proposed. The immunization of networks aims at fragmenting networks into small parts with a small number of removed nodes. Its applications include prevention of epidemic spreading, intentional attacks on networks, and conservation of ecosystems. Although preferential immunization of hubs is efficient, good immunization strategies for modular networks have not been established. On the basis of an immunization strategy based on the eigenvector centrality, we develop an analytical framewo…
Network immunization is an extensively recognized issue in several domains like virtual network security, public health and social media, to deal with the problem of node inoculation so as to minimize the transmission through the links existed in these networks. We aim to identify top ranked nodes to immunize networks, leading to control the outbreak of epidemics or misinformation. We consider group based centrality and define a heuristic objective criteria to establish the target of key nodes finding in network which if immunized result in essential network vulnerability. We propose a group b…
Most researches on adaptive networks mainly concentrate on the properties of steady state, but neglect transient dynamics. In this study, we pay attention to the emergence of community structures in transient process and the effects of community-based control strategies on epidemic spreading. First, by normalizing modularity $Q$, we investigate the evolution of community structures during the transient process, and find that very strong community structures are induced by rewiring mechanism in the early stage of epidemic spreading, which remarkably delays the outbreaks of epidemic. Then we stu…
To control infection spreading on networks, we investigate the effect of observer nodes that recognize infection in a neighboring node and make the rest of the neighbor nodes immune. We numerically show that random placement of observer nodes works better on networks with clustering than on locally treelike networks, implying that our model is promising for realistic social networks. The efficiency of several heuristic schemes for observer placement is also examined for synthetic and empirical networks. In parallel with numerical simulations of epidemic dynamics, we also show that the effect o…
The containment of epidemic spreading is a major challenge in science. Vaccination, whenever available, is the best way to prevent the spreading, because it eventually immunizes individuals. However, vaccines are not perfect, and total immunization is not guaranteed. Imperfect immunization has driven the emergence of anti-vaccine movements that totally alter the predictions about the epidemic incidence. Here, we propose a mathematically solvable mean-field vaccination model to mimic the spontaneous adoption of vaccines against influenza-like diseases, and the expected epidemic incidence. The r…
Epidemic spreading on complex networks depends on the topological structure as well as on the dynamical properties of the infection itself. Generally speaking, highly connected individuals play the role of hubs and are crucial to channel information across the network. On the other hand, static topological quantities measuring the connectivity structure are independent on the dynamical mechanisms of the infection. A natural question is therefore how to improve the topological analysis by some kind of dynamical information that may be extracted from the ongoing infection itself. In this spirit,…
It has been recently discovered that the measles virus can wipe out the adaptive immune system, destroying B lymphocytes and reducing the diversity of non-specific B cells of the infected host. In particular, this implies that previously acquired immunization from vaccination or direct exposition to other pathogens could be erased in a phenomenon named "immune amnesia", whose effects can become particularly worrisome given the actual rise of anti-vaccination movements. Here we present the first attempt to incorporate immune amnesia into standard models of epidemic spreading. In particular, we …
HUN-REN Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics（匈牙利科学院阿尔弗雷德·雷尼数学研究所）；Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学电气、数学和计算机科学学院）；Institute for Hygiene and Applied Immunology, Medical University of Vienna（维也纳医科大学卫生与应用免疫学研究所）；Department of Network and Data Science, Central European University（中欧大学网络与数据科学系）
In this work we propose and investigate a new strategy of vaccination, which we call "dynamic vaccination". In our model, susceptible people become aware that one or more of their contacts are infected, and thereby get vaccinated with probability $ω$, before having physical contact with any infected patient. Then, the non-vaccinated individuals will be infected with probability $β$. We apply the strategy to the SIR epidemic model in a multiplex network composed by two networks, where a fraction $q$ of the nodes acts in both networks. We map this model of dynamic vaccination into bond percolati…
The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter $h$. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter $h$, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we fin…
The spectral properties of the adjacency matrix, in particular its largest eigenvalue and the associated principal eigenvector, dominate many structural and dynamical properties of complex networks. Here we focus on the localization properties of the principal eigenvector in real networks. We show that in most cases it is either localized on the star defined by the node with largest degree (hub) and its nearest neighbors, or on the densely connected subgraph defined by the maximum $K$-core in a $K$-core decomposition. The localization of the principal eigenvector is often strongly correlated w…
By analysing the diffusive dynamics of epidemics and of distress in complex networks, we study the effect of the assortativity on the robustness of the networks. We first determine by spectral analysis the thresholds above which epidemics/failures can spread; we then calculate the slowest diffusional times. Our results shows that disassortative networks exhibit a higher epidemiological threshold and are therefore easier to immunize, while in assortative networks there is a longer time for intervention before epidemic/failure spreads. Moreover, we study by computer simulations the sandpile casc…
Most centralities proposed for identifying influential spreaders on social networks to either spread a message or to stop an epidemic require the full topological information of the network on which spreading occurs. In practice, however, collecting all connections between agents in social networks can be hardly achieved. As a result, such metrics could be difficult to apply to real social networks. Consequently, a new approach for identifying influential people without the explicit network information is demanded in order to provide an efficient immunization or spreading strategy, in a practi…
In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds…
In this work we consider a model of epidemic spreading coupled with an opinion dynamics in a fully-connected population. Regarding the opinion dynamics, the individuals may be in two distinct states, namely in favor or against a vaccination campaign. Individuals against the vaccination follow a standard SIS model, whereas the pro-vaccine individuals can also be in a third compartment, namely Vaccinated. In addition, the opinions change according to the majority-rule dynamics in groups with three individuals. We also consider that the vaccine can give permanent or temporary immunization to the …
In networked spreading models, each node can infect its neighbors and cure spontaneously. The curing is assumed to occur uniformly over time. A pulse immunization/curing strategy is more efficient and broadly applied to suppressing spreading processes. We model the epidemic process by the basic Susceptible-Infected (SI) process with a pulse curing and incorporate the underlying contact network. The mean-field epidemic threshold of the pulse SI model is shown to be $\frac{1}{λ_1}\ln\frac{1}{1-p}$, where $λ_1$ and $p$ are the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix and the fraction of nodes c…
In social networks, control of rumor spread is an active area of research. SIR model is generally used to study the rumor dynamics in network while considering the rumor as an epidemic. In disease spreading model, epidemic is controlled by removing central nodes in the network. Full network information is needed for such removal. To have the information of complete network is difficult proposition. As a consequence, the search of an algorithm that may control epidemic without needing global information is a matter of great interest. In this paper, an immunization strategy is proposed that uses…
Although suppressing the spread of a disease is usually achieved by investing in public resources, in the real world only a small percentage of the population have access to government assistance when there is an outbreak, and most must rely on resources from family or friends. We study the dynamics of disease spreading in social-contact multiplex networks when the recovery of infected nodes depends on resources from healthy neighbors in the social layer. We investigate how degree heterogeneity affects the spreading dynamics. Using theoretical analysis and simulations we find that degree heter…
Traditional mathematical models of epidemic disease had for decades conventionally considered static structure for contacts. Recently, an upsurge of theoretical inquiry has strived towards rendering the models more realistic by incorporating the temporal aspects of networks of contacts, societal and online, that are of interest in the study of epidemics (and other similar diffusion processes). However, temporal dynamics have predominantly focused on link fluctuations and nodal activities, and less attention has been paid to the growth of the underlying network. Many real networks grow: online …
Changs in individual behavior often entangles with the dynamic interaction of individuals, which complicates the epidemic process and brings great challenges for the understanding and control of the epidemic. In this work, we consider three kinds of typical behavioral changes in epidemic process that is, self-quarantine of infected individuals, self-protection of susceptible individuals, and social distancing between them. We connect the behavioral changes with individual's social attributes by the activity-driven network with attractiveness. A mean-field theory is established to derive an ana…
Efficient allocation of limited medical resources is crucial for controlling epidemic spreading on networks. Based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we solve an optimization problem as how best to allocate the limited resources so as to minimize the prevalence, providing that the curing rate of each node is positively correlated to its medical resource. By quenched mean-field theory and heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) theory, we prove that epidemic outbreak will be suppressed to the greatest extent if the curing rate of each node is directly proportional to its degree, under which …
This study focuses on investigating the manner in which a prompt quarantine measure suppresses epidemics in networks. A simple and ideal quarantine measure is considered in which an individual is detected with a probability immediately after it becomes infected and the detected one and its neighbors are promptly isolated. The efficiency of this quarantine in suppressing a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is tested in random graphs and uncorrelated scale-free networks. Monte Carlo simulations are used to show that the prompt quarantine measure outperforms random and acquaintance prevent…
In this work, we study the epidemic SIR model on a system which takes into consideration face-to-face interaction networks. This approach has been used as prototype to describe people interactions in different kinds of social organizations and, here, it is considered by means of three features of human interactions: the mobility, the duration of the interaction among people, and the dependence of the number of interactions of each person on the time evolution of the system. For this purpose, the initial configuration of the system is set as a regular square lattice where the nodes are the indi…
The spread of an infection on a real-world social network is determined by the interplay of two processes: the dynamics of the network, whose structure changes over time according to the encounters between individuals, and the dynamics on the network, whose nodes can infect each other after an encounter. Physical encounter is the most common vehicle for the spread of infectious diseases, but detailed information about encounters is often unavailable because expensive, unpractical to collect or privacy sensitive. We asks whether the friendship ties between the individuals in a social network su…
Bus transportation is considered as one of the most convenient and cheapest modes of public transportation in Indian cities. Due to their cost-effectiveness and wide reachability, they help a significant portion of the human population in cities to reach their destinations every day. Although from a transportation point of view they have numerous advantages over other modes of public transportation, they also pose a serious threat of contagious diseases spreading throughout the city. The presence of numerous local spatial constraints makes the process and extent of epidemic spreading extremely…
This paper focuses on studying and understanding of stochastic dynamics in population composition when the population is subject to rumor spreading. We undertake the study by first developing an individual Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (iSEIR) model, an extension of the SEIR model, for summarizing rumor-spreading behaviors of interacting groups in the population. With this iSEIR model, the interacting groups may be regarded as nodes in a multiplex network. Then various properties of the dynamic behaviors of the interacting groups in rumor spreading can be drawn from samples of the mul…
The effectiveness of vaccination highly depends on the choice of individuals to vaccinate, even if the same number of individuals are vaccinated. Vaccinating individuals with high centrality measures such as betweenness centrality (BC) and eigenvector centrality (EC) are effective in containing epidemics. However, in many real-world cases, each individual has distinct epidemic characteristics such as contagion, recovery, fatality rate, efficacy, and probability of severe reaction to a vaccine. Moreover, the relative effectiveness of vaccination strategies depends on the number of available vac…
