We provide asymptotic results and develop high frequency statistical procedures for time-changed Lévy processes sampled at random instants. The sampling times are given by first hitting times of symmetric barriers whose distance with respect to the starting point is equal to $\varepsilon$. This setting can be seen as a first step towards a model for tick-by-tick financial data allowing for large jumps. For a wide class of Lévy processes, we introduce a renormalization depending on $\varepsilon$, under which the Lévy process converges in law to an $α$-stable process as $\varepsilon$ goes to $0$. The convergence is extended to moments of hitting times and overshoots. In particular, these results allow us to construct consistent estimators of the time change and of the Blumenthal-Getoor index of the underlying Lévy process. Convergence rates and a central limit theorem are established under additional assumptions.
In this paper we will take under consideration subordinators and their inverse processes (hitting-times). We will present in general the governing equations of such processes by means of convolution-type integro-differential operators similar to the fractional derivatives. Furthermore we will discuss the concept of time-changed $C_0$-semigroup in case the time-change is performed by means of the hitting-time of a subordinator. We will show that such time-change give rise to bounded linear operators not preserving the semigroup property and we will present their governing equations by using aga…
The Poisson process of order $i$ is a weighted sum of independent Poisson processes and is used to model the flow of clients in different services. In the paper below we study some extensions of this process, for different forms of the weights and also with the time-changed versions, with Bern\v stein subordinator playing the role of time. We focus on the analysis of hitting times of these processes obtaining sometimes explicit distributions. Since all the processes examined display a similar structure with multiple upward jumps sometimes they can skip all states with positive probability even…
In this paper we study the iterated birth process of which we examine the first-passage time distributions and the hitting probabilities. Furthermore, linear birth processes, linear and sublinear death processes at Poisson times are investigated. In particular, we study the hitting times in all cases and examine their long-range behavior. The time-changed population models considered here display upward (Birth process) and downward jumps (death processes) of arbitrary size and, for this reason, can be adopted as adequate models in ecology, epidemics and finance situations, under stress conditi…
Let B be a Brownian motion and T its first hitting time of the level 1. For U a uniform random variable independent of B, we study in depth the distribution of T^{-1/2}B_{UT}, that is the rescaled Brownian motion sampled at uniform time. In particular, we show that this variable is centered.
Starting from the hyperbolic Brownian motion as a time-changed Brownian motion, we explore a set of probabilistic models--related to the SABR model in mathematical finance--which can be obtained by geometry-preserving transformations, and show how to translate the properties of the hyperbolic Brownian motion (density, probability mass, drift) to each particular model. Our main result is an explicit expression for the probability of any of these models hitting the boundary of their domains, the proof of which relies on the properties of the aforementioned transformations as well as time-change …
We consider time-changed Poisson processes, and derive the governing difference-differential equations (DDE) these processes. In particular, we consider the time-changed Poisson processes where the the time-change is inverse Gaussian, or its hitting time process, and discuss the governing DDE's. The stable subordinator, inverse stable subordinator and their iterated versions are also considered as time-changes. DDE's corresponding to probability mass functions of these time-changed processes are obtained. Finally, we obtain a new governing partial differential equation for the tempered stable …
In the paper we consider time-changed Poisson processes where the time is expressed by compound Poisson-Gamma subordinators $G(N(t))$ and derive the expressions for their hitting times. We also study the time-changed Poisson processes where the role of time is played by the processes of the form $G(N(t)+at)$ and by the iteration of such processes.
We study the connection between PDEs and Lévy processes running with clocks given by time-changed Poisson processes with stochastic drifts. The random times we deal with are therefore given by time-changed Poissonian jumps related to some Frobenious-Perron operators $K$ associated to random translations. Moreover, we also consider their hitting times as a random clock. Thus, we study processes driven by equations involving time-fractional operators (modelling memory) and fractional powers of the difference operator $I-K$ (modelling jumps). For this large class of processes we also provide, in …
In this paper, we obtain a Lamperti type representation for real-valued self-similar Markov processes, killed at their hitting time of zero. Namely, we represent real-valued self-similar Markov processes as time changed multiplicative invariant processes. Doing so, we complete Kiu's work [Stochastic Process. Appl. 10 (1980) 183-191], following some ideas in Chybiryakov [Stochastic Process. Appl. 116 (2006) 857-872] in order to characterize the underlying processes in this representation. We provide some examples where the characteristics of the underlying processes can be computed explicitly.
I consider a stochastic optimization problem for a time-changed Bessel process whose diffusion rate is constrained to be between two positive values $r_{1}<r_{2}$. The problem is to find an optimal adapted strategy for the choice of diffusion rate in order to maximize the chance of hitting an infinitesimal region around the origin at a set time in the future. More precisely, the parameter associated with "the chance of hitting the origin" is the exponent for a singularity induced at the origin of the final time probability density. I show that the optimal exponent solves a transcendental equat…
This paper studies the first hitting times of generalized Poisson processes $N^f(t)$, related to Bernstein functions $f$. For the space-fractional Poisson processes, $N^α(t)$, $t>0$ (corresponding to $f= x^α$), the hitting probabilities $P\{T_k^α<\infty\}$ are explicitly obtained and analyzed. The processes $N^f(t)$ are time-changed Poisson processes $N(H^f(t))$ with subordinators $H^f(t)$ and here we study $N\left(\sum_{j=1}^n H^{f_j}(t)\right)$ and obtain probabilistic features of these extended counting processes. A section of the paper is devoted to processes of the form $N(|\mathcal{G}_{H…
In the last years, many authors studied a class of continuous time semi-Markov processes obtained by time-changing Markov processes by hitting times of independent subordinators. Such processes are governed by integro-differential convolution equations of generalized fractional type. The aim of this paper is to develop the discrete-time version of such a theory. We show that a class of discrete-time semi-Markov chains can be seen as time-changed Markov chains and we obtain governing convolution type equations. Such processes converge weakly to those in continuous time under suitable scaling li…
The problem of missing mass in statistical inference (posed by McAllester and Ortiz, NIPS'02; most recently revisited by Changa and Thangaraj, ISIT'2019) seeks to estimate the weight of symbols that have not been sampled yet from a source. So far all the approaches have been focused on the IID model which, although overly simplistic, is already not straightforward to tackle. The non-trivial part is in handling correlated events and sums of variables with very different scales where classical concentration inequalities do not yield good bounds. In this paper we develop the research on missing m…
We consider the problem of the first passage time to the origin of a spatially non-homogeneous random walk with a position-dependent drift, known as the Gillis random walk, in the presence of resetting. The walk starts from an initial site $ x_0 $ and, with fixed probability $ r $, at each step may be relocated to a given site $ x_r $. From a general perspective, we first derive a series of results regarding the first and the second moment of the first hitting time distribution, valid for a wide class of processes, including random walks lacking the property of translational invariance; we the…
Let $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a continuous-time, time-homogeneous strong Markov process with possible jumps and let $τ$ be its first hitting time of a Borel subset of the state space. Suppose $X$ is sampled at random times and suppose also that $X$ has not hit the Borel set by time $t$. What is the intensity process of $τ$ based on this information? This question from credit risk encompasses basic mathematical problems concerning the existence of an intensity process and filtration expansions, as well as some conceptual issues for credit risk. By revisiting and extending the famous Jeulin--Yor [Lectu…
We introduce a novel type of random perturbation for the classical Lorenz flow in order to better model phenomena slowly varying in time such as anthropogenic forcing in climatology and prove stochastic stability for the unperturbed flow. The perturbation acts on the system in an impulsive way, hence is not of diffusive type as those already discussed in \cite{Ki}, \cite{Ke}, \cite{Me}. Namely, given a cross-section $\mathcal{M}$ for the unperturbed flow, each time the trajectory of the system crosses $\mathcal{M}$ the phase velocity field is changed with a new one sampled at random from a sui…
