核能的未来：事实与虚构第IV章：来自增殖堆和聚变的能量？
The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction Chapter IV: Energy from Breeder Reactors and from Fusion?
摘要：
本文分析了裂变增殖堆和聚变反应堆在商业能源生产方面积累的知识和前景。过去实验性增殖堆的公开数据表明，存在着大量未解决的技术问题，而且无论是从U 238-> Pu 239还是从Th 232-> U 233循环中“产生”的裂变材料的数量仍然远远低于增殖反应堆的要求和乐观的理论预期。因此，巨大的努力，包括许多基础研究问题的不确定性的结果，需要之前，一个大型的商业增殖反应堆原型可以设计。即使技术最先进的国家作出这种努力，也需要几十年的时间才能建造这样的原型。因此，我们的结论是，关于不久的将来商业裂变增殖堆的想法只不过是一厢情愿的想法。我们进一步得出结论，无论我们把目光投向多远的未来，核聚变作为一种能源的可能性甚至比大规模增殖堆更小，因为在这个问题上积累的知识已经足以说明，商业聚变发电永远不会成为现实。
英文摘要：
The accumulated knowledge and the prospects for commercial energy production from fission breeder and fusion reactors are analyzed in this report. The publicly available data from past experimental breeder reactors indicate that a large number of unsolved technological problems exist and that the amount of "created" fissile material, either from the U238 --> Pu239 or from the Th232 --> U233 cycle, is still far below the breeder requirements and optimistic theoretical expectations. Thus huge efforts, including many basic research questions with an uncertain outcome, are needed before a large commercial breeder prototype can be designed. Even if such efforts are undertaken by the technologically most advanced countries, it will take several decades before such a prototype can be constructed. We conclude therefore, that ideas about near-future commercial fission breeder reactors are nothing but wishful thinking. We further conclude that, no matter how far into the future we may look, nuclear fusion as an energy source is even less probable than large-scale breeder reactors, for the accumulated knowledge on this subject is already sufficient to say that commercial fusion power will never become a reality.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
